Life on the front line.

[Dubbag]

Still so much around this novel -Virus......
The tests used to find out if someone is COVID positive could be finding traces of the virus that are no longer active, some scientists are saying.

A study by members of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-based Medicine (CEBM) and the University of the West of England found that there was a risk of "false positives" because of the way people are currently tested for coronavirus.

They looked at 25 studies on the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test - the very sensitive test widely used to find out if someone has the virus in their system.The test gives a positive or negative result, which the scientists say amounts to a simplistic "yes" - someone has the virus, or "no" - they don't have the virus.

But they found the tests were able to detect traces of the virus's genetic material for a much longer period than it remains infectious - meaning a person who tests positive may have the virus in their system, but won't necessarily pass it on.

Other genetic material it detects might be fragments of dead virus - which have already been dealt with by a body's immune system.

One of the study's authors, the CEBM's Professor Carl Heneghan, told The Spectator magazine there were also issues with the way the tests check for the virus and there was a risk that a surge in testing across the UK was increasing the risk of contamination.
The authors wrote in their conclusion of the paper, which was published as a pre-print on the Medrxiv online journal and is yet to be peer-reviewed: "Prospective routine testing of reference and culture specimens are necessary for each country involved in the pandemic to establish the usefulness and reliability of (the) PCR (test) for COVID-19 and its relation to patients' factors.

Taken off SKY News site...

[baggieal]

Still so much around this novel -Virus......
The tests used to find out if someone is COVID positive could be finding traces of the virus that are no longer active, some scientists are saying.

A study by members of the University of Oxford's Centre for Evidence-based Medicine (CEBM) and the University of the West of England found that there was a risk of "false positives" because of the way people are currently tested for coronavirus.

They looked at 25 studies on the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test - the very sensitive test widely used to find out if someone has the virus in their system.The test gives a positive or negative result, which the scientists say amounts to a simplistic "yes" - someone has the virus, or "no" - they don't have the virus.

But they found the tests were able to detect traces of the virus's genetic material for a much longer period than it remains infectious - meaning a person who tests positive may have the virus in their system, but won't necessarily pass it on.

Other genetic material it detects might be fragments of dead virus - which have already been dealt with by a body's immune system.

One of the study's authors, the CEBM's Professor Carl Heneghan, told The Spectator magazine there were also issues with the way the tests check for the virus and there was a risk that a surge in testing across the UK was increasing the risk of contamination.
The authors wrote in their conclusion of the paper, which was published as a pre-print on the Medrxiv online journal and is yet to be peer-reviewed: "Prospective routine testing of reference and culture specimens are necessary for each country involved in the pandemic to establish the usefulness and reliability of (the) PCR (test) for COVID-19 and its relation to patients' factors.

Taken off SKY News site...

Almost 3000 infections today! What’s your view Dubs on really high infections again and very few deaths? Surely if it was the same strain then young people would be passing it to older people resulting in more deaths! Do you think it’s a much weaker strain?

Worrying as it looks like it’s going to get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better! If it’s a weaker strain - whose to say there won’t be a stronger strain soon than the first one!

[DaveP67 is back!]

Thanks for keeping this thread going Dubs, very enlightening for all. As you know when viruses mutate they usually mutate to a weaker form, it’s not in their interest to kill the host! Let’s hope that is what is happening here, that said viral loading may be different due to the younger demographic? Either way we need a vaccine ASAP!

[mickd1961]

Almost 3000 infections today! What’s your view Dubs on really high infections again and very few deaths? Surely if it was the same strain then young people would be passing it to older people resulting in more deaths! Do you think it’s a much weaker strain?

Worrying as it looks like it’s going to get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better! If it’s a weaker strain - whose to say there won’t be a stronger strain soon than the first one!

The % of younger people now getting the virus is huge and they are 99.999% likely to recover from it AL.

All we are doing is shielding the NHS and protecting 0.03% of the population using our present modus operandi with Covid.

[Titchfieldbaggie]

WHO saying a vaccine will extend the pandemic, and we can't go back to how things were before. What would you do?

[baggieal]

The % of younger people now getting the virus is huge and they are 99.999% likely to recover from it AL.

All we are doing is shielding the NHS and protecting 0.03% of the population using our present modus operandi with Covid.

Without being callous Mick - should herd immunity not be looked at? If there's 3000 infections today - my God this will absolutely surge during threshers week at uni and schools going back! Life must go on and the over 70's are the worst for social distancing but at this age, I get it!

[viaductbaggies]

Hardly surprised numbers rising allowing people to go on foreign holidays and pubs n bars back open

Numbers were only going to go one way

[baggieal]

Hardly surprised numbers rising allowing people to go on foreign holidays and pubs n bars back open

Numbers were only going to go one way

Plus all the raves and protests!!

[Dubbag]

Almost 3000 infections today! What’s your view Dubs on really high infections again and very few deaths? Surely if it was the same strain then young people would be passing it to older people resulting in more deaths! Do you think it’s a much weaker strain?

Worrying as it looks like it’s going to get a hell of a lot worse before it gets better! If it’s a weaker strain - whose to say there won’t be a stronger strain soon than the first one!

There is usually a time lag from increased infections to hospitalization...In the USA they went from around 15K/20K daily infections to around 35K/40K with a slight increase in death rate....and some were saying...."I told you so"
But once the figure is sustained within a few weeks the increase in hospitals begin.......and then deaths. Mick is right...it is mostly under 40's age group now been infected and they have a much better recovery rate then over 50s,60s etc...

But there are unknowns in this view...For example...many asthma suffers are in the younger age group...Obesity...many younger people suffer with this...heart ailments have been on the increase in younger people in the west. A lot of these are life style choices.....with old age...you pretty much made your choices...that is why they are cocooned...

The virus is successful as viruses go...however as it replicates itself it introduces changes...like photocopying a sheet of written paper...these mutations are unknowns mainly because it is a novel virus..... So as more and more younger people get infected...it stands to reason that more will become sick, very sick and some will die.....

One thing has remained very constant throughout this ordeal so far...it has remained highly contagious, more so then the winter flu and secondly...it has not eased with the summer weather...it has continued to spread....

[Dubbag]

So in order to prevent people from panicking...lie to them about the truth......or the facts as understood.
Not a great policy when confronting a public health crises....
The revelation by Bob Woodward (whose investigations around Watergate,brought down Nixon, when journalism did investigate stories)that the President of USA knew more about SARS-Covid2 then he let on, as early as February should be a warning to all. Check facts as best you can and know and trust your sources....

US President Donald Trump knew Covid-19 was deadlier than the flu before it hit the country but wanted to play down the crisis, according to a new book.

Bob Woodward, who broke the Watergate scandal and is one of the nation's most respected journalists, interviewed Mr Trump 18 times from December to July.

Mr Trump is quoted as telling him the virus was "deadly stuff" before the first US death was confirmed.

Responding, the president said he had wanted to avoid causing public panic.

Some 190,000 Americans have been recorded as dying with Covid-19 since the beginning of the pandemic.


Total cases are increasing again across most countries as people wanted to try to return to normal life. Thats fine but with public health issues things are usually a little different then normal time thinking. Over here cases are starting to move up rapidly again....and has been for about two weeks...our cases on our ICU has gone from nobody about three weeks ago to 3 confirmed on ventilators and another 4 highly suspected and treated as such. The pressure in new cases has a time lag of about 4 weeks before the infected become really sick and need hospital treatment.....so I would imaging in about another two weeks we will have many more cases on our ward and valuable beds on an ICU ward dedicated to this one illness...so can see elective surgeries and the like been cancelled again as beds become premium rated......
I suspect most hospitals are anticipating a substantial increase shortly again.........