O/T. The Government's handling of Covid

[Andy_Faber]

Sorry to hear that. Must be deeply frustrating and upsetting. He sounds like a total d**k but that won’t help.

I’ve driven home from the Spanish/French border in one go before, but it was 16 years ago. Was thinking two carefully chosen hotels, one in central France and one in northern (non Catalan) Spain. They’re booked, but that was before the situation changed. Might come down to a last minute decision. Very annoying but it’s only a holiday.

I always use the Formule 1 in Orleans on the way down but that defines the opposite of ‘carefully chosen’

[ramAnag]

I always use the Formule 1 in Orleans on the way down but that defines the opposite of ‘carefully chosen’

Exactly...tbh I’d always avoid them. Europe’s ‘Super 8’ and you know what Jason Isbell says about them!

Tbh I can’t see us going, not after today’s figures and Merkel announcing provision to extend the German Furlough scheme to 24 months. Everything can still be cancelled. We’ll see but I’m not hopeful.

[swaledale]

Thanks...there’s also the issue of getting there too, but what you have described doesn’t sound that dissimilar from our current UK lifestyle...just with better weather.

The worrying thing is that from what you in Spain and MA in Holland have suggested it’s all kicking off again and we in the UK might just, inevitably, be four or five weeks behind again as we were earlier in the year. Strange that Italy still remains the exception. Thoughts?

P.S. Haven’t asked him GP. Don’t think it’s his area of expertise...but should I ever need any guidance with my maritime insurance I’ll know where to come.

rA there is no evidence to say its all kicking off again, other than overhyped media reports. The infection rates now being recorded are due to more extensive testing over more of the population, its suspected that these ahve always been there, but never identified as previously testing was confined to those in hospital, care homes or those who reported symptoms. Excess death rates (that is deaths over and above normal) have declined to virtually normal levels in virtually all countries, hospital admissions are declining. All of which points to the disease circulating but having very little impact. Now if death rates climb and hospital admissions rise then you can worry.

As for masks, well yes wear one by all means but its clear they are only window dressing by governments to make people feel safe, the science says they have very little effect, but Governments ahve to do something to make people feel safe and get them back out on the streets. And yes I do wear one, but have no illusions that it protects me or anyone else, keep washing your hands and avoid close contact in excess of 15 mins with people and you will be fine.

[MadAmster]

rA there is no evidence to say its all kicking off again, other than overhyped media reports. The infection rates now being recorded are due to more extensive testing over more of the population, its suspected that these ahve always been there, but never identified as previously testing was confined to those in hospital, care homes or those who reported symptoms. Excess death rates (that is deaths over and above normal) have declined to virtually normal levels in virtually all countries, hospital admissions are declining. All of which points to the disease circulating but having very little impact. Now if death rates climb and hospital admissions rise then you can worry.

As for masks, well yes wear one by all means but its clear they are only window dressing by governments to make people feel safe, the science says they have very little effect, but Governments ahve to do something to make people feel safe and get them back out on the streets. And yes I do wear one, but have no illusions that it protects me or anyone else, keep washing your hands and avoid close contact in excess of 15 mins with people and you will be fine.

Swale, The past two weeks have seen a decline in test numbers in the Netherlands. The number of positive tests has increased. The opposite of what you wrote. Positive tests per 100 tests has more than doubled.

With regard to your other point about following the rules, I agree. If everybody did so there would be a rapid improvement in the overall situation.

Summary of the Dutch rules

1.5m distance
frequent hand washing
avoid crowds
work from home if at all possible
stay home if you have symptoms (one person in the household with symptoms sees the entire household stays in)
Mask up on public transport

There are, I realise, those who will find those 6 little rules "an invasion of their privacy/freedom". To me it's merely common sense.

[Andy_Faber]

rA there is no evidence to say its all kicking off again, other than overhyped media reports. The infection rates now being recorded are due to more extensive testing over more of the population

In the case of Spain, where I've been commenting, wrong. Testing is pretty consistent at 1 test per thousand of the population per day (Aug 5, 1.01, Aug 18 1.15), yet the infection rate is going up like this /. In the locale where I am, the R rate is climbing daily on a consistent testing sample, currently 1.25. And the local media is pretty level-headed, much more considered that its UK equivalent

[ramAnag]

I agree that more extensive testing is likely to lead to the recording of correspondingly greater infection rates, but on this one I wholly agree with MA.
Ultimately the way out of this will be via a vaccine...in the meantime it’s a case of common sense and social responsibility.

[Andy_Faber]

I agree that more extensive testing is likely to lead to the recording of correspondingly greater infection rates, but on this one I wholly agree with MA.
Ultimately the way out of this will be via a vaccine...in the meantime it’s a case of common sense and social responsibility.

Responsible folk in my area are using the Govt rules as 'guidelines' and then applying common sense - ie there's a wide promenade outside my hovel seperated by a canal, when people are on the opposite side, so seperated by maybe 20m, they have their masks in their hands, when they are on the same side, so potentially very close as they pass, they have them on. Some of the excuses I've heard round about have been laughable, inc (sorry rA) a non-mask wearing teacher who says she won't self isolate when she gets home because she's 'being careful'...I felt like making a analogy with Aids, but Mrs F pointed out that with Aids people died through ignorance, with Covid they kill through ignorance

[swaledale]

I agree that more extensive testing is likely to lead to the recording of correspondingly greater infection rates, but on this one I wholly agree with MA.
Ultimately the way out of this will be via a vaccine...in the meantime it’s a case of common sense and social responsibility.

Well the vaccine is an unknown quantity, how effective and when or even if one will be available is questionable the answer for the next 18 months at least is we are going to have to live with it. I liked the view of a 75 yer old interviewed the other day.

Which was

"I don't see the preservation of a few extra years of life for someone my age is worth the economic and social devastation we are inflicting on younger generations. Those that feel at risk should safeguard themselves and let others get on with their lives."

An entirely sensible attitude, far removed from the rumblings and grumblings of fearful old men!

[ramAnag]

Well the vaccine is an unknown quantity, how effective and when or even if one will be available is questionable the answer for the next 18 months at least is we are going to have to live with it. I liked the view of a 75 yer old interviewed the other day.

Which was

"I don't see the preservation of a few extra years of life for someone my age is worth the economic and social devastation we are inflicting on younger generations. Those that feel at risk should safeguard themselves and let others get on with their lives."

An entirely sensible attitude, far removed from the rumblings and grumblings of fearful old men!

Except that the 55+ age group, which is the one most at risk, do not constitute ‘fearful old men’.

Any major epidemic/pandemic is most likely to at its most devastating where the old, the sick (those with underlying health conditions) and the poor are concerned...aka the most vulnerable.

For that reason I have to disagree with your 75 year old. He may be being very selfless, although one doesn’t know his situation, however if such sentiments were uttered by someone in their thirties or forties it could be interpreted as verging on the fascist.

P.S. Take your point MA...but I don’t accept that ‘cost effectiveness’ needs to be a factor where the vaccine is concerned. That precedent thankfully hasn’t been set where other illnesses are concerned.

[swaledale]

Except that the 55+ age group, which is the one most at risk, do not constitute ‘fearful old men’.

Any major epidemic/pandemic is most likely to at its most devastating where the old, the sick (those with underlying health conditions) and the poor are concerned...aka the most vulnerable.

For that reason I have to disagree with your 75 year old. He may be being very selfless, although one doesn’t know his situation, however if such sentiments were uttered by someone in their thirties or forties it could be interpreted as verging on the fascist.

P.S. Take your point MA...but I don’t accept that ‘cost effectiveness’ needs to be a factor where the vaccine is concerned. That precedent thankfully hasn’t been set where other illnesses are concerned.

Where do you get the 55+ age group from? WHO and government guidance states over 70's but every medical expert I've heard says that whilst age is a factor, the state of ones health is the biggest denominator.

The official figures on death rates are as follows:

In age groups up to and including 60-69, fewer than 1 in 1,000 people have died from coronavirus.
Age 70-79, it’s 2 in every 1,000 people.
Age 80-89, it’s 7 in every 1,000 people.
Age 90 and over, it’s 18 people in every 1,000 people.
Males have a higher risk in every age group than females.

Thats pretty good odds IF one is in a reasonable state of health.

Of course to properly assess the risk one would also need to compare the risk of death from other causes, BUT its estimated that deaths from cancer alone due to delayed treatment etc. will run into tens of thousands over the next couple of years.

By the way the 75 year old was a woman and not sure why you'd say it was fascist? If we are killing thousands in order to save thousands isn't that also fascist?

If we have completely ****ed the economy and the lives of hundreds of thousands of people of people whats that then?

I made my first visit to London yesterday, tubes and trains eerily quiet, mask wearing compliance good, fewer people on the streets but not noticeably so.

Mad its far too early to say whether the virus has mutated to a weaker strain, no medical expert I've spoken to or heard speak has said that is the case, more likely that the only people exposed have much more resistance to it, due to health or perhaps having gained some immunity.

I'm intrigued rA as to what your approach would be IF we don't get a vaccine? Do we suspend normal life for 18 months or longer?

Also where do you get the idea that cost effectiveness isn't a measure in developing vaccines or other health treatments? That has always been the case and would be with Covid-19, after all if a vaccine isn't very effective but costs millions to make and not using it would not cost those millions then its likely not to be implemented.