OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[ramAnag]

On the localised forum which you reference it seems to me that noone has changed their minds. Certainly my reference to the idiotic British public is not a new position - I've held that view for over 50 years!! I guess the difference is I don't describe them in terms of pork products.

As for the polls, I've never put much faith in them: don't forget the pre referendum polls pretty much all suggested a remain outcome. There will always be bias, deliberate or otherwise, in posing the questions and selecting the sample

Fine lines, GP. You’ve recently described Brexit supporters as ‘idiotic’ whereas defending their democratic decision to reach the conclusion they did and drag the rest of us into the Brexit abyss seems to have been your previous default position.

Don’t get me wrong...I agree with you and have consistently said that democracy is worthless if gullible and foolish voters can so easily be misled by the lies of sinister and accomplished ‘political animals’. You perhaps haven’t always been so charitable.

[swaledale]

On the localised forum which you reference it seems to me that noone has changed their minds. Certainly my reference to the idiotic British public is not a new position - I've held that view for over 50 years!! I guess the difference is I don't describe them in terms of pork products.

As for the polls, I've never put much faith in them: don't forget the pre referendum polls pretty much all suggested a remain outcome. There will always be bias, deliberate or otherwise, in posing the questions and selecting the sample

The pre referendum polls were largely accurate, what they couldn't account for or indeed may have contributed to was the significant number of people who supported remain not actually voting!

There will always be bias, I guess that depends upon which organisation is doing the polling, the independent polling companies certainly don't seek a biased result, they get pretty embarrassed when they are wrong. It is actually perfectly possible to run an unbiased poll. especially if its a simple yes or no answer with a statistically representative cross section of the population, which will be accurate to within a 1-5% tolerance either way.

Of course what one can't control is whether those being polled give a true answer, but invariably they do unless its a which party do you support poll.

Few committed Brexit voters will have changed their minds its true, time however is reducing that demographic so all is not lost. However, million's who voted on the basis of £350 million going to the NHS or other falsehoods which seemed beguiling at the time have done so.

There is also the fact that many who voted and feel conned, are not exactly going to admit that, but will vote accordingly going forward. If one associates with a certain demographic, then the familiar refrain it ain't Brexit, its this government who haven't delivered it(as per the UKIP and Reform refrain at the moment) is a popular one, but not shared by most voters who were under 50 at the time of the referendum.

True the people with complexions that resemble pig meat are a sizeable chunk of the electorate, but they weren't actually in the majority in 2016 and certainly aren't now. A sizeable chunk of the Tory party were pro EU, they remain on the side-lines, waiting for this UKIP light Toru party to implode which it is doing.

On the international political stage, the UK is much diminished, economically it is weak, reality is setting in, but it will take 5 years of so to fully see a change.

[Andy_Faber]

I don't see anyone in this thread (conceding I only look intermittently) changing their opinion, nor have I heard anyone in the "real world" that I speak to expressing a change of opinion, so I wouldn't confer. I also wouldn't take notice of any polls, as unless you are able to target a verified voting audience with a 50/50 in/out split suitably represented with associated demographics (impossible task), the sample will always be skewed, and produce an unrepresentative result.

No one in my family have changed their opinion,no one amongst my neighbours, no one in my circle of friend, no one in my wider circle of rock’n’rollin’ acquaintances so maybe all this movement in the polls is wishful thinking

[ramAnag]

No one in my family have changed their opinion,no one amongst my neighbours, no one in my circle of friend, no one in my wider circle of rock’n’rollin’ acquaintances

Maybe they were all ‘Remainers’.

[Andy_Faber]

Maybe they were all ‘Remainers’.

Family a mix, neighbours a mix, friends mostly remain, musical acquaintances maybe 95% leave.

[swaledale]

No one in my family have changed their opinion,no one amongst my neighbours, no one in my circle of friend, no one in my wider circle of rock’n’rollin’ acquaintances so maybe all this movement in the polls is wishful thinking

Nope the polls aren't wishful thinking, or there would be glaring differences between them. They might overstate the changes but equally could understate the changes.

But then as I said, the polls at the time of the referendum weren't wrong, just that those supporting Remain didn't turn out in as many numbers as those that voted leave. Add to that the significant percentage who voted purely on the basis of the figures on the bus or some other promise which has never been fulfilled and it would not be a seismic event for them to have a different opinion now.

it is after all fairly simple maths!

[Andy_Faber]

But then as I said, the polls at the time of the referendum weren't wrong, just that those supporting Remain didn't turn out in as many numbers as those that voted leave.!

That’s one of your more amusing statements

[Geoff Parkstone]

It's an interesting notion that the polls were right (pro remain) in 2016 but remainers didn't turn out to vote on the day which made the result wrong. I'd love to see some empirical evidence to support that contention. Sounds like just so many sour grapes to me.

So what you're suggesting is that the current swing in favour of remain (in your opinion,) is due to non voting remainers from the 2016 referendum choosing to "vote" in a 2023 opinion poll, rather than leavers switching camp between 2016 and 2023.

[Andy_Faber]

my circle of friend

Disappointed that my latest (self-mocking) bit of good natured joshing yet again missed the mark

[Ramshank72]

Disappointed that my latest (self-mocking) bit of good natured joshing yet again missed the mark

Your mate Mark will never change!
I wonder how many people didn't turn up and vote leave as they either thought it was a foregone conclusion that we'd remain, or that the government wouldn't see out their vote.