I think it is impossible to know now what the stats will show, what approach was the most effective one etc, if ever it will be possible?
If you have a strict lockdown, and then open up, the death figures may very well rise. The State Epidemiologist of Finland (early and strict lockdown) said they had too few who had caught the virus and will therefore be stuck with it ”infinitely”, and most likely have a peak mid autumn.
Belgium had an early and very strict lockdown, and they have been hit harder than most, yet again, so far.
New Zealand are supposedly on the verge of eradicating the virus after having had a very strict lockdown (island, ”far away”, scarcely populated). But, what will happen when they do open up!? A democracy can hardly be in a lockdown until there is a vaccine?
Many Epidemiologists believe that the outcome will be approx the same for all, strict lockdowns or lighter ones etc. Other things can play a much bigger part as eg ”old sins”. How well prepared were you in terms of supplies/stock of medicine etc? How is the standard of your care homes for the elderly, have they been neglected over the years or not? How many people work zero hour contracts and therefore can’t afford staying home from work, when maybe feeling a bit unwell? How many people have poor living conditions and therefore live to ”closely and densely” and with mixed generations? And of course some sort of randomness can of course play a part etc, etc...
And, when and if there are stats that show something about how different countries handled this, health problems and deaths caused by lockdowns and similar measures must be included, which makes this extremely difficult.
All in all, very difficult to be certain of anything, but I believe in a balance between an ”open society” and prudent guidelines about what to do or not.
Good to see the old ”doom and gloom approach” (normally about the Albion) is still prevalent among some. 😎
Stay safe. 😊