OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[swaledale]

Interesting - and these figures solely relate to job losses due to Brexit, ot just job losses in an undefined period, including perhaps the impact of technology etc?

5000 due to relocation may be reasonable as insurance and financial services deal with passporting issues, but my experience points to that simply creating jobs in eu countries, not switching jobs from uk: but I wouldn't argue with the 5k too much. Unless you are one of those 5k, it's only a scratch on a 35m (??) workforce.

It's clear why Scotland wanted to stay in!

Yes these losses are nothing to do with technology etc. and refer to the period since we voted to leave.

The 5k is the jobs that i directly have seen relocated not the total! These are jobs that were in the Uk and are now in the EU so they are lost not additional jobs created. in the EU.

The loss of these jobs also has a knock on, with other jobs being lost as UK suppliers and service providers are no longer used, that tends to be in the order of 2 job losses for each "principle job" lost.

Its largely academic as the impact Covid-19 will ensure that it will be very difficult to identify the total economic impact of Brexit. Though that may be exacerbated in the event we don't strike a trade deal. Something even i think the current numpty's will not risk - if the adoption of a withdrawal agreement which was basically May's original deal spun as something different is anything to go by.

[mistaram]

Your opinion is worthless because its not based on facts or anything but blind prejudice.

I can't be arsed to refute everything you say life is too short, but most on here are bright enough to know most of what you post is utter *******s, and you've been called out many times.

I'd just question how the EU was responsible for outsourcing production to China, Singapore, Taiwan, Bangledesh, Turkey etc. etc. which firms have been doing for eons!

On wages :

The Independent Migration Advisory Committee found there was some evidence that immigration depressed the wages of lower-skilled workers while inflating those of higher-skilled workers, but added that the impact was generally small.

When it talks about a small impact, it looked at the period from 1993 to 2017, over which time average earnings for the lowest-paid rose by 55%. Using economic modelling, they estimated that - if there hadn't been European migration into the UK - that rise would have been around 5% higher.

It added that more research was needed to find out if there had been any impact on self-employed workers.

The MAC concluded that other factors had a greater impact on wages, with all workers having done badly since the financial crisis. Real wages are still struggling to rise above where they were in 2008, but lower-skilled workers have done marginally better due to the minimum wage rising faster than average earnings.

Bloody he'll Swales your trying to blind him with the truth are you . I can tell you from my own experience having interviewed and employed personal from EU countries . The last thing they will let you do is short change them on wages

[swaledale]

Bloody he'll Swales your trying to blind him with the truth are you . I can tell you from my own experience having interviewed and employed personal from EU countries . The last thing they will let you do is short change them on wages

One inconvenient truth is that the UK does not have a surplus labour problem - before the pandemic, unemployment was below 4% officially full employment.

About 30 years ago I was involved in helping a guy set up a factory near Barnsley. Part of the reason for the location was the availability of government grants to support industry in old coal field areas with high unemployment and the aim was to recruit local skilled labour, especially ex miners.

Now the jobs on offer were highly skilled with very good rates of pay especially compared to what was on offer in the area and full training was also on offer (government paid) so opportunities were there for anyone with the aptitude. . Despite his best efforts, he ended up with a workforce that was 45% EU labour, he could not recruit enough local people or even other UK people from the surrounding area.

I was on holiday in Scotland two years ago and was surprised that every hotel seemed to be run and staffed by EU workers. I thought that was strange, surely in the highlands local jobs were scarce? Talking to those who owned or run the establishments the answer was the same - we can't get enough local people and often the ones we do get don't stick at it but leave within a short time.

So two different scenarios but both seem to indicate that whether the job is high skilled high wage or relatively low skilled and low paid, there aren't enough Uk applicants to fill available jobs.

[swaledale]

No you shouldn't, and I probably spend a lot of time mooching round in a bubble a lot like yours, reasonably impervious to, or even benefiting from, the impact of Brexit and even Covid (providing I don't catch it). But I'm lucky (in a way) to spend time in a number of other bubbles, the ones which foretold that Brexit would happen and Trump would happen, and any anecdotes I give tend to be direct experiences outside my bubble. I think they are enlightening, maybe others do, you obviously don't.

Whats enlightening is that what you post dos not give the impression your aware that there may be other scenarios other than your own expereince!

[mistaram]

One inconvenient truth is that the UK does not have a surplus labour problem - before the pandemic, unemployment was below 4% officially full employment.

About 30 years ago I was involved in helping a guy set up a factory near Barnsley. Part of the reason for the location was the availability of government grants to support industry in old coal field areas with high unemployment and the aim was to recruit local skilled labour, especially ex miners.

Now the jobs on offer were highly skilled with very good rates of pay especially compared to what was on offer in the area and full training was also on offer (government paid) so opportunities were there for anyone with the aptitude. . Despite his best efforts, he ended up with a workforce that was 45% EU labour, he could not recruit enough local people or even other UK people from the surrounding area.

I was on holiday in Scotland two years ago and was surprised that every hotel seemed to be run and staffed by EU workers. I thought that was strange, surely in the highlands local jobs were scarce? Talking to those who owned or run the establishments the answer was the same - we can't get enough local people and often the ones we do get don't stick at it but leave within a short time.

So two different scenarios but both seem to indicate that whether the job is high skilled high wage or relatively low skilled and low paid, there aren't enough Uk applicants to fill available jobs.

These are very skilled jobs but our problem when recruiting is that local people prefer the security of large employees ie RR or Bombardier . But the Polish , Latvians etc are just as skilled ,highly motivated and loyal . A lot of UK problems are caused by a generation not wanting to take vocational degrees

[swaledale]

These are very skilled jobs but our problem when recruiting is that local people prefer the security of large employees ie RR or Bombardier . But the Polish , Latvians etc are just as skilled ,highly motivated and loyal . A lot of UK problems are caused by a generation not wanting to take vocational degrees

Your quite right and a view that training for jobs in manufacturing or a trade is of less value than a degree at some second rate university! A degree is not always the appropriate qualification for many people and one area I think the last Labour Giv got wrong was focussing on that rather than raising the overall skill levels of people.

Coupled of curse with the Uk's natural reluctance to venture far for work! Can you imagine hordes of our people moving to eastern europe to live and work if the economic circumstances were reversed? A few maybe, but most wouldn't!

The same applies to our footballers, precious few actually venture overeseas to play relative to the mobility of other nationalities.

[ramAnag]

A lot of UK problems are caused by a generation not wanting to take vocational degrees

Spot on, mista. In fact I’d go so far as to say a lot more than just a ‘generation’.
There is a real problem in this country - and elsewhere - with the ‘status’ given to different forms of knowledge.
For far too long, imo, ‘academic’ knowledge has received a level of kudos seldom offered to more ‘practical’ forms of learning/knowledge which continue to be looked down on.
It’s nonsense imo but, as long as government remains so dominated by an ‘old school tie’ Oxbridge educated elite, things will never change.

[Ram59]

Spot on, mista. In fact I’d go so far as to say a lot more than just a ‘generation’.
There is a real problem in this country - and elsewhere - with the ‘status’ given to different forms of knowledge.
For far too long, imo, ‘academic’ knowledge has received a level of kudos seldom offered to more ‘practical’ forms of learning/knowledge which continue to be looked down on.
It’s nonsense imo but, as long as government remains so dominated by an ‘old school tie’ Oxbridge educated elite, things will never change.

I agree with your statement regarding about where too much kudos is given to academic achievement but disagree, not for the first time, where the blame lies.

The biggest misdirection we have had in recent times, was the Labour infatuation that every pupil should go to university. University became the only achievement worthwhile. Polytechnics turned into universities and children wanting to get a trade all but disappeared. Children were taught that they could do anything they wanted and were reluctant to start at the bottom, when starting work.

Consequently, we have a workforce now, that believes many jobs are below them, resulting in the need for the numbers of immigrants, who are willing to do these jobs.

I would think that the 'old school tie' would favour the old idea of university education for the rich or the brilliant and the others prepared to work in more mundane jobs.

Labour's policy was flawed, the aim to have over 50% of students to go to university, when way under 50% of jobs require a University education. This can only result in disappointment for many with worthless degrees and no suitable job to go to. These students have their aspirations built up, only to be cruelly let down when they realise that they have been so ill prepared for work life.

[mistaram]

Spot on, mista. In fact I’d go so far as to say a lot more than just a ‘generation’.
There is a real problem in this country - and elsewhere - with the ‘status’ given to different forms of knowledge.
For far too long, imo, ‘academic’ knowledge has received a level of kudos seldom offered to more ‘practical’ forms of learning/knowledge which continue to be looked down on.
It’s nonsense imo but, as long as government remains so dominated by an ‘old school tie’ Oxbridge educated elite, things will never change.

Spot on RA schools are partly to blame as well Its usually the less academic who are encouraged to take vocational courses . I can only really speak about the engineering side of things . But things are vastly different today compared to even the 70s &80s most jobs are computerised , I went to college for five years ,bloody hard work

[Trickytreesreds]

Metal work/wood work has been stripped from schooling for decades now.
It is the back bone of foundation for crafts persons. I started with my engineering studies, with skills of lathes, drills, metal treatment, designs all put into use to make things like steam engines from steel/brass/copper. This was foundation for apprenticeship and the further education that followed.
I have recruited many a school leaver who doesn't even know which direction a drill should rotate to cut, never mind sharpen one.
It's where the country fails badly and part of the problem for the long term future. No wonder we have all these East european recruits for such roles.
It's not the kids fault, they have been let down badly in education. These people were never going to go to university for a decent, or meaningless degree.
So they have been thrown on the tip before they have even started.
Time to wipe the slate clean.