OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[ramAnag]

Democracy as such is in the hands of a small number of floating voters who change their minds on issues. That's the irony of it - a system where 80% or more of the voters always vote one way is seen as democratic. The power is in the hands of the 20% (or less) of swing voters who determine labour or conservative in power etc.

Same is true with Brexit - it's those who change their mind that determine our fate, not the dyed in the wool remainer like rA or leaver in TTR. They don't matter, have no purpose in a poll or vote. Our fate is in the hands of the indecisive. But how do you target that group to determine it's preferences? In a relatively small sample of 2000 you probably have 1600 or more that won't change their mind come hell or high water, so your key sample is maybe only 400

NB the above ignores age creep voters that can also influence by adding to or deleting from voting stock.

Take your point, GP...but for me it’s ‘those who change their mind’ when the truth eventually emerges, or when the reality dawns that they’ve been conned, who have the greatest consequence for our democracy.
I’m really not suggesting that the Left hold a monopoly as far as telling the truth is concerned...but I am convinced that the Brexit victory was won as a result of blatant lying by two of the campaign’s major protagonists and when that happens on such a scale any notion of democracy even on our simplistic ‘one man, one vote’ basis is jeopardised...hence my original question from yesterday morning.

[MadAmster]

It’s a well-researched fact that there’s a 1-2 percent overstatement to ‘the left’, highlighted in U.K. by the industry wide error in the 2015!election. Most pollsters now adjust for this, I don’t believe Yougov do. Brexit is a bit different because it wasn’t a clear left/right issue

There are those who would say it was a question of right and wrong. If any good ever comes out of it it would, IMO, be HMG getting found out for cronyism, if, of course there was any cronyism towards Mone and others in the, now declared illegal, VIP fast lane scam where folk with zero experience in PPE got given 10s of millions, hundreds of millions in some cases, to supply PPE that, in many cases, either never got delivered or was so sub standard it was unusable. £40 odd billion for a test and trace system that didn't work. Millions more on an App that never worked that was put out to a friend/relative/GF (I forget which) of Cummings to create. More wall spaffing.

It does look like billions have been back pocketed by friends, family, donors, sponsors of Tory politicians. My sense of justice says both those who profited and the politicians who mad it happen should end up in court.

There were some firms put forward by Labour and LibDem politicians.... none of them got a contract. Was that merely down to not greasing palms?

[ramAnag]

It’s a well-researched fact that there’s a 1-2 percent overstatement to ‘the left’, highlighted in U.K. by the industry wide error in the 2015!election. Most pollsters now adjust for this, I don’t believe Yougov do. Brexit is a bit different because it wasn’t a clear left/right issue

Andy...I’m sure it will come as no surprise that statistics aren’t really my ‘thing’ however, unless I’m even more numerically mistaken than usual, a ‘1-2% overstatement to the left’ isn’t really going to make much difference to a poll which reflects a 55% v 32% Remain v Leave scenario is it?

[MadAmster]

I might get criticised for post 8982. The way I see it, it's not my cash that has been spaffed, it's all yours and I fervently believe, if there has been any skullduggery going on, then you all (HMG / Taxpayer money) should be repaid and anybody who may have "done wrong" should face trial to establish guilt or otherwise.

My own opinion is that there are a lot of rich folk now sweating profusely due to any legal cases that may be incoming.

My hope is that any and all wrong doers pay the price, both criminal and financial.

[ramAnag]

I might get criticised for post 8982. The way I see it, it's not my cash that has been spaffed, it's all yours and I fervently believe, if there has been any skullduggery going on, then you all (HMG / Taxpayer money) should be repaid and anybody who may have "done wrong" should face trial to establish guilt or otherwise.

My own opinion is that there are a lot of rich folk now sweating profusely due to any legal cases that may be incoming.

My hope is that any and all wrong doers pay the price, both criminal and financial.

Well I for one won’t be criticising post #8982. If what you suggest is true, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if that is the case, then the time for wrong doers to pay the price is already overdue and I share your ‘hope’ completely.

[Trickytreesreds]

Glad you enjoyed the hols TTR.

With regard to the post of yours I've quoted, what exactly was the response from the 2002 respondents? Is this the same one to which rA referred?

Hello Maddy. Thank you.

Yes the statistics of what he quoted, didn't include the demographics that I quoted.
The eye is in the detail.
No YOUGOV aren't going to admit who they included. But the fact remains, 2/3 thirds are left leaning, professionals. Now they may have allowed for this in their invites, I don't know. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

I'll give you an example of one I filled in today.
It was about the NHS and private treatment.

I have had both sets myself in the past. Now I am a firm supporter of the NHS, but lets be honest here, it lacks and falls short of so many things.

Their main question was- "given the choice with an operation, would you rather be treated privately or by the NHS"? No money objections.

79% of the current vote was in favour of NHS treatment, for the operation?
Now I find this hard to believe, given sharing a ward with others, screwing up your sleep /privacy/ personal medical attention.
Having had an op, with a private room/ own nurse/ own bathroom / meal menu, I know what I would always prefer.

So my conclusion, had to be. That the participants, were allowing their own feelings/political leanings effect the poll and its quest for a true feeling.

But YOUGOV has become this way.
A Tory screws up and the polls run riot. A Labour Mp screws up and the same enthusiasm for blood isn't there.

It's interesting though to observe.

[Trickytreesreds]

RA, may I ask you a question in line with the topic you raised?

Lets just assume, what you are proposing is true.

The political parties certainly are not pushing that agenda of feeling.

Torys, are sticking with it, in a fashion( not to my liking though)
Labour? Well Starmer keeps repeating that Brexit is done and we move on?
Reform? Well they certainly want more done, than the Tories delivered.
SNP? Well lets just forget that one

What about the Libs? They still rant on about rejoining, no matter what. So perhaps you should throw your colours behind their efforts?
At least your voice, would have an audience of agreement.

[ramAnag]

RA, may I ask you a question in line with the topic you raised?

Lets just assume, what you are proposing is true.

The political parties certainly are not pushing that agenda of feeling.

Torys, are sticking with it, in a fashion( not to my liking though)
Labour? Well Starmer keeps repeating that Brexit is done and we move on?
Reform? Well they certainly want more done, than the Tories delivered.
SNP? Well lets just forget that one

What about the Libs? They still rant on about rejoining, no matter what. So perhaps you should throw your colours behind their efforts?
At least your voice, would have an audience of agreement.

My objection to Brexit transcends Party lines, Tricky. Always has done.
Even back between 2016-19 Corbyn was no fan of the EU and, despite the fact that you always seek to label me as a hard Labour man I’m really not.
My political stance is invariably to be found somewhere amongst the centre left although, as with most people, it varies somewhat depending upon what is the subject of debate.
I don’t need to tie my colours to any particular Party and I don’t wish to toe any particular Party line.
Yes I despise what the current Tory Party has become because, imo, it has become a Party synonymous with arrogance, greed and dishonesty and my objections to Brexit are that it makes the UK worse off in terms of our economy, in terms of our defence/relationship with our European neighbours and was built on a web of deceit created by two ‘front men’ in particular who sought to put their own well being above the national interest.
Of those who are most likely to be elected PM at the next election I would prefer Starmer, but that doesn’t mean that I regard him, or Labour, as a perfect fit...just a huge improvement upon what we’ve had to put up with over the last 13 years.

Still unclear, following your answer to MA’s question, of what you’re actually suggesting. Could you explain further please...what does ‘yes the statistics of what he quoted, didn’t include the demographics that I quoted’ actually mean?

[MadAmster]

rA, I would have added that one of the 2 "front men" (and nobody has more front than them) to whom you refer was a very late mover to the Leave side. He had 2 sets of articles/speeches ready to launch once he'd decided which side he thought was going to win. One Remain and one Leave. As we all know, he went with Leave in the end.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Making Brexit work is essential because you cannot move forward, or grow the country, or deliver change, or win back the trust of those who have lost faith in politics if you’re constantly focused on the arguments of the past.

Perhaps people on this forum (particularly rA) should consider the above. A prize for anyone who can attribute these words without recourse to google