OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[swaledale]

Don’t need it, in the few areas I have any sort of involvement in there has been quite a bit of forward planning and as I’ve stated, although there will be a bit of extra admin and a bit of extra cost, life will go on pretty much as before

Now I will admit that I don’t have your skill in bull****ting about stuff I know absolutely nothing about, I think we all here appreciate that special attribute, so please soothsay away to your heart’s content

Except I'm not soothsaying, just pointing out a few salient facts, a "little extra admin" a "little extra costs"? For the small stuff which you have picked out yes, for other businesses no, the loss already to the economy before we actually left ran into millions of pounds and that will continue.

I like the way you apparently were such a soothsayer that you were able to forward planning when multi million pound businesses that export for a living are saying, it was impossible to plan ahead, non of the regulations were agreed and some still haven't because of the last minute nature of the deal, that the full implications for admin could not be assessed until after the deal had been done and that currently neither the government so called help lines nor the customs agents have much of a clue what's required.

Now I tend to believe people who do this sort of thing for a living, not someone who seems unable to read the correct post, who doesn't recognise reality and whose last attempt to have a dig is to sneer at my grammar typos, oh dear you are a wee bit desperate when you have nothing other than nit picking to come back with.

So if anyone is bull****ting and soothsaying on here about stuff you know nothing about, I'd say its you!

[swaledale]

We have the morons saying 'I told you so' less than 3 weeks, yes 3 weeks, into the transition. That's what I call losers grabbing at straws whilst they're still there. Come back with sensible arguments after a sensible period of time.

Let me tell you a story, back in 1985, myself and my wife really stretched ourselves, possibly overstretched ourselves, to buy a detached house in need of a bit of tlc. Friends called us mad and for a couple of years, it was a struggle and we put off starting a family. For those couple of years, we had a few 'I told you so' comments. I look back on that purchase as the best decision we ever made and we wouldn't be in the position that we're in today, if we hadn't made it.

Brexit is another one of those decisions.

And you know this how?

Serious question, name actual factual reasons why Brexit is a good decision.

[swaledale]

Congratulations on your 1985 vision. We had more or less exactly the same experience two years earlier...it wasn’t unusual with property in the early eighties or, on occasions, since...but how do you know ‘Brexit is another of those decisions’ and where is the evidence of anything other than wishful thinking?

Aye and rA for evey body whose gamble paid off, there were a fair few that didn't. It is rather amazing how short term memories are, it might be just worth thinking back to what started the 2008 financial crisis off!

So lets hope that Brexit turns out Ram's way rather than the other eh? I mean what can go wrong gambling the economy and future life chances of a whole country on a vague proposition?

[swaledale]

You know those "small extra admin and small extra costs" you mention so casually? heres a real example for you.


Paul is a director of Leon Paul, based in Hendon, north London, which employs 50 people. It is a niche business, which has been in his family since it was set up in 1921. It designs and manufactures equipment for the Olympic sport of sword fencing. But in many ways it is typical of tens of thousands of small companies that sold some of their goods at home and some abroad, and enjoyed seamless access to the border-free EU market for decades. “Previously the business of sending orders direct to customers in Europe was very straightforward,” he says.

“You put something in a box, sent it off with a courier and it got to the customer in a day or two days without any friction, just like sending something within this country.”

Almost a third of Leon Paul’s £7m annual turnover is to customers in EU countries. On average each order to the EU has been worth about £200. But the European export side of the business is now looking increasingly unsustainable.

We did everything we could to prepare for Brexit and are part of the DTI’s export champion community,” says Paul. But since 1 January, his firm – like other UK exporters – has been hit by three new charges. And four days ago the firm discovered another one that his customers in the EU will have to pay on receiving the goods.

“As far as I can see, currently, companies like ours in the UK are not going to be able to do ‘end sales’ to customers in the EU any more. Particularly, small orders for anything under £100 will be completely impossible,” says Paul.

The new export levies, which he says will amount to £160,000 a year for Leon Paul, are first, a “Brexit charge”, as the couriers are calling it, an export fee of £4.50 for every parcel shipped to the EU to cover costs of extra administration and form filling that couriers must carry out.

Second, there is a “deferment account fee” of £5 per parcel that covers couriers’ costs of pre-paying import charges in the destination country; and third, a “disbursement charge” which is set at different levels in each EU country with a minimum of about €14 per parcel, or calculated as a percentage of the value of the goods, whichever is the higher, plus VAT in the destination country. This covers the costs of the tax authority in the recipient country inspecting and processing the parcels.

For the past fortnight Paul has been trying to work out how to absorb the extra costs. But he is struggling to see an easy way.

“Jobs lost will be lost here,” he says. “That is the reality. All of these fees will come straight off profit margins.

[Ram59]

Congratulations on your 1985 vision. We had more or less exactly the same experience two years earlier...it wasn’t unusual with property in the early eighties or, on occasions, since...but how do you know ‘Brexit is another of those decisions’ and where is the evidence of anything other than wishful thinking?

The point is that I don't know, just like you don't know that it's wrong. What I'm trying to say is that it's absolute rubbish after 3 weeks to say problems now, prove brexit to be wrong. Just like my friends who told us 6 months after we bought the house, that we were wrong, although they were correct in saying that at the time, we were suffering an adverse affect on our lifestyle.

[Andy_Faber]

You know those "small extra admin and small extra costs" you mention so casually? heres a real example for you.

Yes I am part of the 'horsey' world' through my youngest daughter and have made use of the skills acquired in my former profession (I was an accountant, so of course I'm skilled in everything) to help a couple of her professional (ie they make a living out of it) friends work through import/export issues in the past, mainly to the middle east and America. It appears EU import/export will be roughly the - just a cost of doing what they love doing to these folk, tbh at the mo they have more of an issue with the cost of winter feed. OK?

[Trickytreesreds]

- nicked

The Company behind the fake lorries in London today - is a major donor to the SNP and also a major recipient of U.K. subsidies for the fishing industry except they actually don’t do any fishing - they are wholesalers - so why they have bought fish and shell fish from the fishermen that they cannot export is a bit of an Agatha Christie type mystery - or perhaps not as DR Collins were one of the major players in purchasing our fishermen’s quotas over the past 25 years so perhaps they have to buy the quotas from them - the CEO of DR Collins - James Cook - is a good friend of Ian Blackford and Nicola Sturgeon who both regularly enjoy summer holidays at his large Caribbean estate - I knew I could smell a rat somewhere along the line

Of course the SNP would never stoop so low, I'm sure. They only have the nation at heart.

[swaledale]

Yes I am part of the 'horsey' world' through my youngest daughter and have made use of the skills acquired in my former profession (I was an accountant, so of course I'm skilled in everything) to help a couple of her professional (ie they make a living out of it) friends work through import/export issues in the past, mainly to the middle east and America. It appears EU import/export will be roughly the - just a cost of doing what they love doing to these folk, tbh at the mo they have more of an issue with the cost of winter feed. OK?

Yes but as the example above shows and I've both personally seen others and read of other examples where experienced businessmen who export and prepared for everything, have found the circumstances to be completely different to that expected, along with a lot of other little charges etc popping up. Now if you export outside the EU, its not an issue, but if your trade is with the Eu then there is the buggeration factor a the moment and the continual additional costs and admin which hold sway going forward that will threaten the viability of many.

[Trickytreesreds]

Terrible.

https://news.sky.com/story/nissan-bo...ntage-12194667

[MadAmster]

So. Tariff free but not extra documentation (and therefore cost-) free.

All Gupta is saying is that having a deal is better than no deal at all. Something they can handle. He's not saying it's great or an improvement on how things were but it's it's way better than a nod eal wud have been.

I may be wrong but "things not being as bad as they might have been" doesn't feel like a win.