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Thread: OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

  1. #8261
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    Andy...there are essentially three long term defenders of Brexit on here. In descending order of commitment...Tricky, GP and yourself.
    None of you have been able to provide any sensible and realistic advantages of Brexit imo.
    We all know what Tricky’s, not very hidden, agenda is. GP invariably resorts to silly minor insults and you just bang on and on and on about Swale who is much better than me, and certainly much better than you, as far as the economic detail is concerned.
    Ramshank apart, who is more than capable of constructing an argument, albeit one any Remainers will disagree with, the only relevant point I’ve heard on here has come from MA who, despite - I think - recognising all the self destructive aspects of the isolation that Brexit has brought about for the UK, did at least identify his objection to the EU becoming a ‘United States of Europe’. I don’t agree but it is a valid concern.

    The whole thing, I fully accept, has become very, very boring...but then that’s partly why we got in this mess in the first place...the electorate were bored into wanting to bring an end to it all. Indeed the only thing more boring and repetitive is you going on and on about Swale.

    Swale did this...Swale did that...Swale’s too insulting...you and Swale are like two peas in a pod...you always defend Swale...blah, blah, blah.

    I’m sure Ramshank can more than look after himself and no one has attacked his view. Equally none of your Brexit gang of three has been able, or willing, to offer any comeback to Swale’s comments (8253) about the way in which Covid has ‘cloaked’ the impact of Brexit on the UK or his figures about our current economic situation.

    For my own part...where politics is concerned, the major targets of my political observations over the last six years have been, in no particular order...Johnson, Trump, Farage, Gove and Williamson. You, Tricky and GP have constantly sought to belittle such criticism...looking at where they all are now it seems my views have been thoroughly justified.

  2. #8262
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    My ears are burning!
    For the record, I haven't made any argument, I'm just dismissing the use of random numbers being picked from statistical data which cannot be directly attributable to the debate, to form an argument for or against it, which Andy had understood.
    For example, from the same set of data, Real AWE was positive between Aug 20 and Oct 21, maxing at +5.3% using a 3 month average in June 21, or even +5.9% in April 21 using single month figures. This could easily be translated as a roaring success one year on from Brexit despite the constraints of a worldwide pandemic.
    I'm not making that argument, but it demonstrates how easy it is, and a journalist with some good writing skills (which I lack, give me a spreadsheet any day!) could make it even more convincing.

  3. #8263
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ramshank72 View Post
    My ears are burning!
    For the record, I haven't made any argument, I'm just dismissing the use of random numbers being picked from statistical data which cannot be directly attributable to the debate, to form an argument for or against it, which Andy had understood.
    For example, from the same set of data, Real AWE was positive between Aug 20 and Oct 21, maxing at +5.3% using a 3 month average in June 21, or even +5.9% in April 21 using single month figures. This could easily be translated as a roaring success one year on from Brexit despite the constraints of a worldwide pandemic.
    I'm not making that argument, but it demonstrates how easy it is, and a journalist with some good writing skills (which I lack, give me a spreadsheet any day!) could make it even more convincing.
    I stand corrected and respect your opinion. I thought you were arguing that the impact of Covid made it difficult to assess the impact of Brexit. I accept that possibility, in part, as far as the economics are concerned though not as far as the changed view the rest of the World, most particularly our nearest geographical neighbours, have of us is concerned.

  4. #8264
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ramshank72 View Post
    I presume Amster is looking at Average Weekly Earnings inflation in real terms, which is provided by ONS as an adjustment against CPI, readily available for anyone to interrogate, you can download it from the ONS site and see for yourself.
    The problem with these % stats, is that they only represent an average for the working population, rather than real term impact on a personal level.
    For example, NLW increases 6.62% to £9.50ph in April, which sounds great, until you realise that for many people on that wage have seen their cost of living increase by 20+%, as unfortunately food, energy, fuel etc doesn't increase as a % of salary.
    I'm not dismissing anything as being rosey here, as the stats indicate that the tale is worse for those close / on / beneath the bread line.
    But it is difficult to draw any direct Brexit conclusions on these particular stats (for or against), as there is no reliable data set to draw upon.
    I think it was Swale that said earlier on in the thread that it would be impossible to clearly draw any such conclusions on the data as other matters will mask it, he was right, unfortunately this stuff proves nothing.

    I as you would expect disagree, for a start looking at GDP, we are now running £400 million a week below pre Brexit era.

    Of course a set of figures on their own doesn't show the whole picture and in that your right, but given the impacts upon SME's of exporting to the EU, a many have either given up, its too costly, or have shifted a section of their operations to the EU, losing, both the revenue, the tax income, the jobs, the supply chain and so and so forth, a real economic hit.

    I spent a great deal of my time before and after the Brexit vote advising businesses how to ensure they had continuity of trade afterwards. From my own work I know that millions of pounds of tax and economic activity no longer touch the UK.

    Indeed that arch Brexiteer Rees-Mogg moved part of his business to Dublin so that it would not be affected by Brexit!! I mean when one of those pushing for a hard Brexit does that you can be sure they are well aware of what the real affect will be.

    On the other hand, if someone somewhere can point to an actual tangible economic benefit that Brexit has brought the UK I would be overjoyed to learn of it.

    As for the Trade deals, well most have simply rolled over existing EU deals, but New Zealand and Australia are piss poor, basically within a decade, they will have tariff free access to the UK market which will basically **** our farmers for a start.

    Now what is interesting is that Northern island businesses are experiencing economic growth, increased trade with the Eu, thats why apart form a few teaks, they are really not that fussed about the NI protocol and equally why the UK Government is fussed, the last thing it wants is a living example of part of the UK benefitting from being in the single market and customs union, demonstrating the full economic cost of Brexit.

  5. #8265
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ramshank72 View Post
    My ears are burning!
    For the record, I haven't made any argument, I'm just dismissing the use of random numbers being picked from statistical data which cannot be directly attributable to the debate, to form an argument for or against it, which Andy had understood.
    For example, from the same set of data, Real AWE was positive between Aug 20 and Oct 21, maxing at +5.3% using a 3 month average in June 21, or even +5.9% in April 21 using single month figures. This could easily be translated as a roaring success one year on from Brexit despite the constraints of a worldwide pandemic.
    I'm not making that argument, but it demonstrates how easy it is, and a journalist with some good writing skills (which I lack, give me a spreadsheet any day!) could make it even more convincing.
    it wasn't a set of random numbers though!!

  6. #8266
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    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    Andy...there are essentially three long term defenders of Brexit on here. In descending order of commitment...Tricky, GP and yourself.
    D
    Thank God you never marked any of my exam submissions. I have never defended ‘Brexit’. I’ve a)defended the right of the people to have their democratic decision respected and b) repeatedly committed to and encouraged others to ‘get on with it’, such as it is. In that respect, using a footballing analogy, you are still in preseason and I amongst others have got our shoulders to the wheel trying to avoid relegation

  7. #8267
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    Thank God you never marked any of my exam submissions. I have never defended ‘Brexit’. I’ve a)defended the right of the people to have their democratic decision respected and b) repeatedly committed to and encouraged others to ‘get on with it’, such as it is. In that respect, using a footballing analogy, you are still in preseason and I amongst others have got our shoulders to the wheel trying to avoid relegation
    Jeez...are you incapable of posting without some sort of irrelevant reference to me being a former teacher?

    I’m not sure what you are this week...accountant, landlord, builder, chauffeur, editor, publisher, or some combination of all six...but time after time you retreat into your default position of ‘I’m only defending a democratic decision’, and yet only last week you were tacitly agreeing with your nemesis that the electorate are too ill informed, ignorant or ‘thick’ to deal with the detail and reach such a decision.

    Now either Brexit is a fine idea that is going to improve the situation of UKPLC and these improvements have simply been delayed by Covid or...it’s a bloody silly idea built on a web of deceit voted for by people who had insufficient understanding which has, to continue YOUR football analogy...left us facing ‘relegation’. Which is it, Andy? Break the habit of a lifetime and make your mind up.

  8. #8268
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    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    Jeez...are you incapable of posting without some sort of irrelevant reference to me being a former teacher?
    Apologies if I overdoo that, I thought that was GP. However

    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    I’m not sure what you are this week...accountant, landlord, builder, chauffeur, editor, publisher, or some combination of all six
    Just as you can't help having been a teacher, I can't help what I do/have done and mention them when its relevant. Your tone suggests you either don't believe or don't approve - well welcome to the gig economy. Not sure where chauffeur comes from though. By the by, similar comment on the few connections I've been lucky enough to make over the years, I mention them when it adds context to a discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    ...but time after time you retreat into your default position of ‘I’m only defending a democratic decision’, and yet only last week you were tacitly agreeing with your nemesis that the electorate are too ill informed, ignorant or ‘thick’ to deal with the detail and reach such a decision.
    Ill informed, yes, 'thick' no, I'll leave the disdain for my fellows to others. And are you suggesting you don't defend democracy when its suits you not to?

    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    Now either Brexit is a fine idea that is going to improve the situation of UKPLC and these improvements have simply been delayed by Covid or...it’s a bloody silly idea built on a web of deceit voted for by people who had insufficient understanding which has, to continue YOUR football analogy...left us facing ‘relegation’. Which is it, Andy? Break the habit of a lifetime and make your mind up.
    My opinion and comments from day 1 have tended towards the latter, NOT silly, questionably deceitful (or at least both sides were at it and Remain just weren't very good at it), insufficient understanding absolutely, and I've not wavered from that. And as I've said to you before, I want people to fight to avoid relegation, not whinge about the position we're in

    Just to be clear. Respecting a democratic decision even if you don't agree with it is a GOOD thing

  9. #8269
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    FWIW I am not a defender of Brexit, I voted remain. I am however a defender of the country's decision to Brex, rightly or wrongly.

    That may be too subtle a distinction for you to appreciate rA, even 3 years on. Our difference of opinion lies solely in your refusal to accept the decision and my willingness to try to make the best of (what may be) a bad job.

    For sure Brexit may end up a disaster, and it's more likely to do so when the refuseniks continue to try to subvert the process. You regularly ask to see benefits, I regularly answer that, if there are to be any, it's too early to assess them. A process that changes so much of the economic fabric of a country and its relationships cannot be judged as instantly as you want it to be.

    If you don't understand this, let's look at it another way. You invest £500 in a football season ticket, your first two matches are 3-0 home defeats. Do you judge the value for money of the season ticket as ****e at that point? In this analogy you clearly presume we will not garner any points at home in the remaining 21 matches and so it's a disaster. In mine I say we've still got 63 points to play for....whilst admitting that we may not get all of them.

  10. #8270
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geoff Parkstone View Post
    FWIW I am not a defender of Brexit, I voted remain. I am however a defender of the country's decision to Brex, rightly or wrongly.

    That may be too subtle a distinction for you to appreciate rA, even 3 years on. Our difference of opinion lies solely in your refusal to accept the decision and my willingness to try to make the best of (what may be) a bad job.

    For sure Brexit may end up a disaster, and it's more likely to do so when the refuseniks continue to try to subvert the process. You regularly ask to see benefits, I regularly answer that, if there are to be any, it's too early to assess them. A process that changes so much of the economic fabric of a country and its relationships cannot be judged as instantly as you want it to be.

    If you don't understand this, let's look at it another way. You invest £500 in a football season ticket, your first two matches are 3-0 home defeats. Do you judge the value for money of the season ticket as ****e at that point? In this analogy you clearly presume we will not garner any points at home in the remaining 21 matches and so it's a disaster. In mine I say we've still got 63 points to play for....whilst admitting that we may not get all of them.
    ‘Our difference of opinion’ does not ‘lie solely’ in ‘my refusal to accept the decision’ and your ‘willingness to try and make the best’ of it, GP.
    As I’ve said on countless occasions I have no alternative other than to accept the ‘decision’, but accepting that it is the right and beneficial decision is a different matter and as the ‘proof of the pudding’ gradually emerges those of us who recognise the harm this ‘decision’ is doing to our country have a right, if not a duty, to speak out.

    Let’s compare it with other hypothetical decisions. If you lived in a country that supported a philosophy of apartheid which had somehow been arrived at by ‘democratic decision’ would you support it and make the most of it?

    Not quite so hypothetically perhaps...if you lived in a country where the democratically elected government sought to reintroduce fox hunting and other ‘country sports’ would you passively shrug your shoulders and say, ‘oh well...we’ve reached that decision democratically’?

    I wouldn’t. I’ve campaigned against both in my youth and would do so again regardless of what any questionable majority might suggest and I’d be surprised if you wouldn’t too.

    The football analogy doesn’t really work imo. Of course you can’t judge a whole season on the basis of two results or Klopp might already have been sacked. However if, after the opening fixtures, the players are discontent, the fans are unhappy, no one wants to join and the formation is clearly wrong, then yes...you have to ask questions about what all the indications are and that is all I, amongst others, are doing. So...again...anyone...are there any promising signs stemming from Brexit and isn’t it a tad ridiculous to try and blame those Remainers (Refusenicks as you incorrectly refer to us) for the mess we now appear to be in?

    P.S. Cricket’s crap isn’t it?

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