Yes, in the FL, 70/71 pts can get you 7th place. In the conference, weaker teams in the bottom half means that 75pts is the norm.Originally Posted by ncfcog
I think that's 58pts needed from 33games
W17 D7 L9 or
W16 D10 L7
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Yes, in the FL, 70/71 pts can get you 7th place. In the conference, weaker teams in the bottom half means that 75pts is the norm.
I think that's 58pts needed from 33games
W17 D7 L9 or
W16 D10 L7
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74 last year 73 year before.
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And 76, 75, and 75 before that
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No i wouldnt be ecstatic with a play off placeI should be working but it's monday and I'm struggling for motivation, a little like Notts really, so I've done some maths instead. Apologies to those in advance who don't find this interesting.
Based on the last 5 seasons it seems 75 points in this league will get you in the top 7, so a play off spot. I thoink at the beginning of the season and maybe even now most of us would be ecstatic with that so I have used this points total as a minimum benchmark.
The chart below will plot the points gained vs points needed in order to achieve 75 points.
Some key data:
Starting from now we will need a points per game average of 1.78.
Ardley's PPG average in total as a manager currently stands at 1.23
Ardley's PPG average so far with Notts is 0.98
Ardley's PPG average so far this season is 1.10
I would expect this, as an absolute minimum requirement. It should be automatic notts aim for
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Well I did say most, not everyone.
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Ok, so having a quick look over the last 5 seasons anything between 45 and 50 points gets you fourth from bottom, we need to finish fifth from bottom to be safe so I have based the following on assuming 50 pts needed for safety.
That's a PPG average of 1.09 over the season and a PPG average needed from now of 1.08.
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Thanks for that really interesting and worryingOk, so having a quick look over the last 5 seasons anything between 45 and 50 points gets you fourth from bottom, we need to finish fifth from bottom to be safe so I have based the following on assuming 50 pts needed for safety.
That's a PPG average of 1.09 over the season and a PPG average needed from now of 1.08.
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Great visual......basically too many draws and the odd loss are keeping us pinned on the "red for relegation line" and just eyeballing the gap to the "green for go to the play-offs", we currently need at least 2 back-to-back wins....mmmm, when was the last time we achieved that?Ok, so having a quick look over the last 5 seasons anything between 45 and 50 points gets you fourth from bottom, we need to finish fifth from bottom to be safe so I have based the following on assuming 50 pts needed for safety.
That's a PPG average of 1.09 over the season and a PPG average needed from now of 1.08.
If we are still stuck on the red line in mid-season, then we would look like needing 4 or even 5 back-to-back wins to bridge the gap, very unlikely, and we will end up in a dog-fight at the bottom continually looking over our shoulder.
Quite simply, we need to kick into some kind of motion pretty pronto......sounds easy huh?
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Great work to give us a simple visual to monitor. Thanks for the effort!
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No worries, I know it doesn't interest everyone but I think it will be interesting to see how things develop, very much like Old_pies thread from last season, just need to see the black line closer to the green line asap!
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