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Thread: 📈Form Table Thread

  1. #451
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    Quote Originally Posted by nw6pie View Post
    Are we certain those stats for King's Lynn aren't just for the first half? I'm sure you're right, but it definitely felt like they had more than 8 efforts on goal. I'm equally shocked that we had more attacks/dangerous attacks than them - beginning to think these are meaningless!

    I am definitely not surprised that we only had 6 efforts on goal - another woeful stat to add all the others in recent weeks.

    The other bleak stat I picked out is that in our last seven league games (excluding Weymouth, as they weren't available), we've averaged just three efforts on target per game. Ironically, the best we managed was the seven against Dagenham & Redbridge when of course we played 75 minutes with 10 men.
    I’ll have the xG data tomorrow morning which should detail all the shots/chances, should make for interesting reading.

  2. #452
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    Quote Originally Posted by nw6pie View Post
    The other bleak stat I picked out is that in our last seven league games (excluding Weymouth, as they weren't available), we've averaged just three efforts on target per game. Ironically, the best we managed was the seven against Dagenham & Redbridge when of course we played 75 minutes with 10 men.
    That stat is indeed very bleak, but also slightly surprising in that I would have genuinely expected it to be lower, having watched several games recently where we have not registered a single effort on goal.

  3. #453
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    Quote Originally Posted by nw6pie View Post
    Are we certain those stats for King's Lynn aren't just for the first half? I'm sure you're right, but it definitely felt like they had more than 8 efforts on goal. I'm equally shocked that we had more attacks/dangerous attacks than them - beginning to think these are meaningless!

    I am definitely not surprised that we only had 6 efforts on goal - another woeful stat to add all the others in recent weeks.

    The other bleak stat I picked out is that in our last seven league games (excluding Weymouth, as they weren't available), we've averaged just three efforts on target per game. Ironically, the best we managed was the seven against Dagenham & Redbridge when of course we played 75 minutes with 10 men.
    If the attacks/dangerous attacks stats are from betting websites then I think they base them solely on which part of the pitch a team has possession in rather than the actual chance of scoring a goal.

    If you've got a player in possession in the final third, who passess it backwards to a teammate just inside the opposing team's half, who then gives it straight back to the first player - that's two 'dangerous attacks'.

  4. #454
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    Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
    If the attacks/dangerous attacks stats are from betting websites then I think they base them solely on which part of the pitch a team has possession in rather than the actual chance of scoring a goal.

    If you've got a player in possession in the final third, who passess it backwards to a teammate just inside the opposing team's half, who then gives it straight back to the first player - that's two 'dangerous attacks'.
    Quite, I'm pretty certain Notts can pick up quite a few 'dangerous attacks' where we have not even come close to threatening the oppositions goal, nor indeed looking to do so. Some excellent possession stats to boot.

  5. #455
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  6. #456
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    Really good read 👍🏻 Interesting Sutton appear to be overachieving recent compared to their performances, gives us a bit of hope, but I guess we need to sort our own issues out first.

  7. #457
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    Excellent and interesting reading as always. I note that some fans on here have said that they think we have got more points throughout this run of poor performances than what we probably deserved which if I'm interpreting your report correctly the stats back this statement up? That is why performances need to improve going forward as it's not sustainable as was proven by dropping two points right at the end of the Kings Lynn game as our luck ran out.

    Interesting that Michael Doyle has played the most out of any player. At nearly 40 years old this is testament to his fitness and how he has looked after himself over his career. Statistically Knowles should be starting every game with his goal to minutes ratio as pound for pound he is having an impact when he does play. However I do think that rotating Knowles and Sam will be beneficial in the second half of the season.

    Good to see that the fans can see what the stats say with regards to Rawlinson and DKE. It looks like we might lose Wootton or Reeves for a game if they pick up another yellow card each so that's something to bare in mind.

    With regards to other teams I'm firmly set on my 2 points ppg to win the title which is the average points needed in the past six seasons so fully expect Sutton to dip at some point, much like Torquay have albeit their form has turned into a slump as they are now 15th in the form table for the last ten games. So they seem to have ran out of steam and have effectively crashed and burned.

    I do believe that we will need to win another block of 4 or 5 games in a row to stand a chance of winning the title. The reason I say this is because we are 6 points behind the 2 ppg target and also because we have games in hand. For example hypothetically speaking if we were to win the next five we would be on 53 points from 27 games and as such we could expect to be top as we would be 1 point under the 2ppg. A winning block at some point will allow us to catch and overtake whoever is above us regardless of who that is and what other teams are doing.
    Last edited by MAD_MAGPIE; 07-03-2021 at 04:57 PM.

  8. #458
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    Thanks for that. As Matt says, a really fascinating read. The one line that stood out for me in your report was this, based on xG for the season so far:

    "More importantly this translates to Notts actually securing nearly 5.5 more points than expected at this stage based on performances."

    I'd imagine all of these "bonus" points have been won in games like the two against King's Lynn, the Weymouth win, the Stockport point and the Solihull win. It shows that we need to get over this mid-season loss of form and hope the performances start to improve, starting Tuesday. The goals have definitely dried up in recent months, especially if Kyle Wootton doesn't score.

  9. #459
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    Thanks for the feedback guys and yes the stats pretty much back up many of the comments discussed on here recently. I’m in the process of doing some analysis on all the promotion contenders with a view to producing a predicted final table outcome. I might be miles out by the end of the season but will be fun to see how it pans out.

  10. #460
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    Apologies to those of you who enjoy the stats (I'm sure there's a couple of you), I had a bit of a funny turn on sunday night, gave me and the missus a bit of a fright. Hopefully will get back to doing the full blown reports etc in a couple of weeks but in the meantime will do my best to keep the site updated as and when I can.

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