The Corona Virus

[1959_60]

Lot of bleeding "Ifs" there 59er. The evidence suggests my mortality rate from COVID is spot on.

Pop your numbers in...

https://www.omnicalculator.com/healt...mortality-risk

Population 66.65 million.
75,000 deaths.

1 in 887 of the population have died so far, which is 0.1126% of the population.

Unless you are disputing that 75,000 have died? Or our population is 66.65M?

[sinkov]

This is what the Government and media don't tell you, what they'd prefer you not to know, that we don't need Covid for a winter NHS beds crisis, it's perfectly normal, it's an annual event. Ask the Guardian.

2012.
"Hospitals 'full to bursting' as bed shortage hits danger level. Death rates at more than a dozen trusts are worryingly high, says Dr Foster report based on NHS's own performance data"

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ing-nhs-report

2013.
"Hospitals scramble to prevent crisis in NHS's 'toughest ever' winter. NHS deputy chief executive says service 'pulling out all the stops' to deal with impact of bad weather, flu and vomiting bug".

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ather-vomiting

2014.
"More patients, overstretched doctors – is the NHS facing a winter crisis? A&Es are already swamped, and the cold snap hasn’t arrived yet"

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...-fewer-doctors

2015.
"Hospital bed occupancy rates hit record high risking care. NHS bed occupancy rates of higher than 85% can increase the risk of problems such as infections and quality of care, research suggests".

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...s-risking-care

2016.
"Hospitals in England told to put operations on hold to free up beds. Health service regulator asks hospitals to postpone most of their planned operations in a drive to make more beds available over Christmas."

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...o-free-up-beds

2017
"NHS bosses sound alarm over hospitals already running at 99% capacity. Bed shortages prompting concern for patient safety even before onset of winter weather and anticipated major flu outbreak"

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...safety-concern

2018.
"NHS intensive care units sending patients elsewhere due to lack of beds. Exclusive: Doctors say 80% of units sending patients to other hospitals amid chronic shortages"

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...tage-hospitals

2019
"Hospital beds at record low in England as NHS struggles with demand. More than 17,000 beds have been cut from the 144,455 that existed in 2010".

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...es-with-demand

Could someone tell me just what is supposed to be so different about this winter ?

[sinkov]

I think we all agree now that this is one very nasty virus, that can kill and cause severe illness but the evidence remains consistent that only 0.1% of the UK population are at serious risk of death.

What astonishes me is that we see a constant spike of the virus as a consequence of the movement of schoolchildren from home to home via attendance at school.

The lunatics who are in charge of running this sh!tfest send the police in to break up "illegal raves" yet still allow hundreds of schoolkids, parents and teachers to attend thousands of schools every day.

They need to look at the evidence and not the fecking science!

A fortunate coincidence helped show that B.1.1.7 (also called VUI-202012/01, for the first “variant under investigation” in December 2020), appears to be spreading faster than other variants in the United Kingdom. One of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests used widely in the country, called TaqPath, normally detects pieces of three genes. But viruses with 69-70del lead to a negative signal for the gene encoding the spike gene; instead only two genes show up. That means PCR tests, which the United Kingdom conducts by the hundreds of thousands daily and which are far quicker and cheaper than sequencing the entire virus, can help keep track of B.1.1.7.

Close the bloody schools for God's sake!

I really feel for the youngsters caught up in this, their lives and education are being wrecked and this virus poses virtually no danger to them at all. I've heard more than one person in Clitheroe moaning about schoolkids roaming in groups in the town, when they've been let out of school. But why should they not, they're in those groups in school all day, you can't expect them suddenly to isolate and split up on their way home. FFS, leave the kids alone, they're OK, and if you think they can pass it on to you then keep away from them, they're noisy enough, you can hear them coming, and they're not going to attack anyone, or mob anyone. Get off their backs.

[oldcolner]

BT

Not quite a statistician yet.
“evidence remains consistent that only 0.1% of the UK population are at serious risk of death.”

That’s the number that have died, not those at risk.
The elderly are most at risk and they are nearly 20% of the population. That is the Government and public health challenge.
.
This is not just about death but long Covid too. 10% of cases under 65 will get that and 20% of those over 65 will be affected too. That’s a huge burden of ill health for the NHS and social care to cope with.

So far we have had 2.5 million of them testing positive and a lot more going untested. They are growing at 50k a day just now!

[kritichris]

No matter how much people are playing this down the weekly deathrate is still about 1,400 above what it should be for this time of year (ONS 5 year average). That is not insignificant.

[Norder]

No matter how much people are playing this down the weekly deathrate is still about 1,400 above what it should be for this time of year (ONS 5 year average). That is not insignificant.

so you quoted a number - 1 4 0 0, what do they mean - counting who and counting not, age, reasons....Inquire - Analyse - Examine....and what it should be ?.

when words die their meanings perish with them .


welcome Krit.

[kritichris]

Cheers Norder for the enigmatic welcome. I'm a sort of prodigal son in the biblical sense, not financial, hence the post level.

[Norder]

Cheers Norder for the enigmatic welcome. I'm a sort of prodigal son in the biblical sense, not financial, hence the post level.

i'e got a penny I'll swop you for a pound...could be a collectable penny.

joking apart - Krit....numbers are moved around like candy in a sweret factory, but where did they come from, what went into the mix, the telling points.

E621 - Monosodium glutamate (MSG) - Yeast extract...a flavour enhancer that tells to body to realease more insulin and disconnects the messaging between the saturation centre in the brain and stomach, Keep eating....but it's just a number - right ?

Cheers.

[kritichris]

I try to be selective and research my facts but appreciate Mark Twain's sentiment re lies, damned lies and statistics, especially in this era of social media and misinformation. Stay safe, if Corona Virus don't get you the Bogeyman might.

[The Bedlington Terrier]

I try to be selective and research my facts but appreciate Mark Twain's sentiment re lies, damned lies and statistics, especially in this era of social media and misinformation. Stay safe, if Corona Virus don't get you the Bogeyman might.

OC will try and get you, that is for certain.