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Thread: Last 10/11 games.

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
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    739

    Last 10/11 games.

    So, no-one took me up on starting a thread on the run-in so I'll make the first move. After the weekend, I've assumed there are 5 teams fighting for the 3 automatic places. There are also 4 others aiming at promotion via the play-offs. Therefore, there are 9 teams involved in the promotion fight.
    So who's got the 'easiest' set of fixtures. In my totally unscientific method I have treated the league position of forthcoming opponents as points (i.e. 13 th place gives 13 points). The outcome would mean that the promotion challenger with the most points would have the easiest set of fixtures. The raw scores don't give a final picture as Cheltenham only have 10 games left and Swindon still have 12. Thus I averaged the points through the number of games left.
    Well, not good reading:
    Team. Ave POS of opponent
    Swindon. 16.3
    Plymouth. 13.8
    Cheltenham. 13.4
    Exeter. 13.36
    Alex. 12

    Not only do we have the highest placed opponents (on average) but of 9 promotion chasers, Alex play 5 of them, Exeter play 4, Plymouth and Cheltenham have 3 but Swindon only have to play 1. So, on paper, we're destined for the play-offs.
    Of course, Brian Clough once said "football is not played on paper, it's played on grass". Plus the above ( as mentioned unscientific) method does not take into account points already gained as there is a 4 point gap between Swindon and Plymouth.
    I've convinced myself that Swindon will be champions but I feel we will finish 3rd. Plymouth will grab 2nd. Of course I am making this prediction before Tuesday night when four of the top teams play.
    Anyone else to put their heads on the block in forecasting the promotion places?

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2009
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    1,499
    Well I think that 3 possibly 4 more wins will see us in the play-offs, 6 should see us in the top three and 7 or 8 the top.
    Make of that what you will. It's a tough March though

    If we can average 2 points a game then who know. Reflect on what we have done so far and it would be 85 points

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
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    839
    I’ve looked at the fixtures too and done my Mystic Meg bit! I reckon Swindon and Plymouth will pull away and finish on 92 and 87 points respectively. Third will be hotly contested and we will finish a point ahead of both Cheltenham and Exeter (83 vs 82). Goal difference could well come into it, of course, which puts Exeter and a Plymouth at a disadvantage. Cobblers and the Vale to complete the play off line up.

    I reckon we will lose 3 times, Exeter, the Vale and Colchester; Exeter to lose at Plymouth (no love lost there, believe me!), Cheltenham and Orient; Cheltenham to lose at Forest Green and Swindon. We may have more of the top 9 to play, but after Tuesday that’s the rest of the Top 5 out of the way.

    Keep the faith!

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2013
    Posts
    336
    Cheltenham are the inform team with 5 straight wins and are looking good to try and push into the automatic promotion spots. The top 3 all have the same form in the last 5 games but Swindon have that game in hand to play . I feel Plymouth are struggling at the moment ( I watched them at Macc and could not see them as promotion material in the 1-1 draw) WE have 11 cup finals to play and must take each game as it comes and just set out to win each game and not worry about the others. If we win every game we are up simple as that .Lets not try to complicate a tight race . The best 3 teams over the season will o up and I trust we will be one and possibly champions

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    383
    I know that we can look back on most games and think that we dropped a point ( or two) because of a specific incident or incidents. But I hope Porter's miss at Plymouth doesn't come back to bite us in the bum. Would hate them to pip us by a single point.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
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    839
    You’re bound to get howlers at this level, or the players would be playing higher up. On the other side of the Porter miss is the de la Paz goalkeeping display for Oldham, Maynard’s hat trick of chances for Mansfield..... sometimes these really DO even themselves out over a season!

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    383
    Quote Originally Posted by AstonAlex View Post
    Youíre bound to get howlers at this level, or the players would be playing higher up. On the other side of the Porter miss is the de la Paz goalkeeping display for Oldham, Maynardís hat trick of chances for Mansfield..... sometimes these really DO even themselves out over a season!
    Obviously agree re those points, but the difference is we beat Oldham, and got a point against Mansfield.

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