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Thread: O/T:- US overtake Italy & China for Coronavirus cases

  1. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by cher1 View Post
    America is weeks behind Spain, Italy and even the UK in terms of progress of the disease so it really isn't possible to compare death rates at this stage. Maybe NYC is nearing its peak - hopefully - in terms of new infections, (not deaths), but the rest of the country is way behind. Lockdown takes weeks to have an effect on reducing deaths, you just have to look at us. And of course, the lockdown isn't quite what we think of. Have just seen the huge queues of people waiting to claim unemployment benefit - absolutely no social distancing at all. Trump and co can't even manage it at their daily task force 'show'.

    Sadly I stand by the comments I made in March earlier in the thread, this is going to be truly terrible for America.
    One of the advantages that the US has (similar to Australia and Russia) is the vast open spaces once you leave the East or West coast urban centres......most of their population lives in the middle of nowhere, believe me, I've lived there and that's why they vote Republican.
    You are on your own, no neighbours (unless it's your cousin Bubba with his 12 kids that look like your sister!)....totally self-reliant and everyone carrying a gun and a hunting knife!.....social distancing is not an issue in Dollar, Tennessee population 23 and which went down one since I left!......let's wait to see what happens once the huge melting pots of NY, Detroit, LA and New Orleans level out.

  2. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by tarquinbeech View Post
    One of the advantages that the US has (similar to Australia and Russia) is the vast open spaces once you leave the East or West coast urban centres......most of their population lives in the middle of nowhere, believe me, I've lived there and that's why they vote Republican.
    You are on your own, no neighbours (unless it's your cousin Bubba with his 12 kids that look like your sister!)....totally self-reliant and everyone carrying a gun and a hunting knife!.....social distancing is not an issue in Dollar, Tennessee population 23 and which went down one since I left!......let's wait to see what happens once the huge melting pots of NY, Detroit, LA and New Orleans level out.
    ...and when the effects of panicked migration of the infected from these cities to these one-horse towns shows up in statistics. The authorities in the cities can't enforce isolation for fear of infringing "citizen's rights" so what's the chance of controlling interstate movement?

    Have you seen the huge queues outside the gunshops? Just wait till these good folk try to exercise their citizens rights and move their families into hill-billy country.
    Last edited by LaxtonLad; 10-04-2020 at 06:27 AM.

  3. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaxtonLad View Post

    Have you seen the huge queues outside the gunshops?
    I have - it's weapons-grade stupidity.

  4. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
    Good luck with that.
    Sorry Driller, I'm not with you?

  5. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by cher1 View Post
    Sorry Driller, I'm not with you?
    I was having a conversation with Tarquin on another thread (the one about the cure for coronavirus staring us in the face) in which he refused to accept the conventional wisdom that the UK is some weeks behind Italy and Spain, so I meant good luck trying to get him to accept the idea that the USA is behind Italy and Spain.

    Sorry my fault it wasn't clear!

  6. #116
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  7. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by tarquinbeech View Post
    One of the advantages that the US has (similar to Australia and Russia) is the vast open spaces once you leave the East or West coast urban centres......most of their population lives in the middle of nowhere, believe me, I've lived there and that's why they vote Republican.
    You are on your own, no neighbours (unless it's your cousin Bubba with his 12 kids that look like your sister!)....totally self-reliant and everyone carrying a gun and a hunting knife!.....social distancing is not an issue in Dollar, Tennessee population 23 and which went down one since I left!......let's wait to see what happens once the huge melting pots of NY, Detroit, LA and New Orleans level out.
    Turns out that this virus really does get around, even in Hicksville USA. Scroll through this map for full chilling effect:

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ica-cases.html

    These are places where many people are old, poor and sick, and where there are few medical facilities - not that many people could afford the healthcare in the US, anyway.

  8. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by upthemaggies View Post
    What exactly does this graph tell us?

    It is simply showing a 7 day average of deaths-per-day (on a varying logarithmic vertical axis) v time....it takes no account of total deaths or remarkably, the size of population.

    It makes it look like the USA has a worse problem than Italy, France and Spain.......when that is absolutely not the case.

    I used to produce loads of these when I worked at the brewery and needed to hide the fact that I'd had a **** month.

    Now try plotting total deaths per million of population v time.....totally different result

  9. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by tarquinbeech View Post
    What exactly does this graph tell us?

    It is simply showing a 7 day average of deaths-per-day (on a varying logarithmic vertical axis) v time....it takes no account of total deaths or remarkably, the size of population.

    It makes it look like the USA has a worse problem than Italy, France and Spain.......when that is absolutely not the case.

    I used to produce loads of these when I worked at the brewery and needed to hide the fact that I'd had a **** month.

    Now try plotting total deaths per million of population v time.....totally different result
    Name:  covid-deaths-days-since-per-million.jpg
Views: 59
Size:  14.7 KB

  10. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by tarquinbeech View Post
    Name:  covid-deaths-days-since-per-million.jpg
Views: 59
Size:  14.7 KB
    No idea how to enlarge it, but it is deaths per capita v time ....Italy are off on their own (I can redo this with Spain in front, if needed) followed by France, UK, USA, Germany......the scale is logarithmic and is a clever way of making the curve bend over to the right.

    If I change the vertical axis to linear, it will make the curve bend almost straight upwards.....there are lots of smart guys on here that know what I'm talking about.

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