O/T:- US overtake Italy & China for Coronavirus cases

[drillerpie]

No idea how to enlarge it, but it is deaths per capita v time ....Italy are off on their own (I can redo this with Spain in front, if needed) followed by France, UK, USA, Germany......the scale is logarithmic and is a clever way of making the curve bend over to the right.

If I change the vertical axis to linear, it will make the curve bend almost straight upwards.....there are lots of smart guys on here that know what I'm talking about.

Does the horizontal axis represent days since first death? Or something else?

[tarquinbeech]

Does the horizontal axis represent days since first death? Or something else?

There are a few options....this chart was "days since total confirmed deaths reached 0.1 per million"

I think it is a way to statistically make everyone start off at 0 (or 0.1) in this case, rather than on a specific date (the graph would have everyone "taking off" at various points along the horizontal axis if it was actually a "date" axis)

This is why everyone is actually talking about "a lag".....it isn't a lag in actual physical dates (our heated discussion from yesterday) because clearly UK and Italy spotted Covid on the same date....it is just that different countries got hit harder at the start (multiple reasons from demographics to political incompetency, lockdowns partial, lockdowns full, regional lockdowns etc etc etc), and they literally "sky-rocketed" off.

Will different countries follow the same trajectory? no idea.....clearly you think the UK will follow Italy, I don't.....Cher fears that the USA will get badly hit.....I think it's all relative....I certainly don't think they will follow Spain, France or Italy...no.

[BigFatPie]

Does the horizontal axis represent days since first death? Or something else?

The people compiling these stats seem to think doing per capita comparisons is a ridiculous measure. Do you know why that is? It’s probably dead obvious...

[tarquinbeech]

The people compiling these stats seem to think doing per capita comparisons is a ridiculous measure. Do you know why that is? It’s probably dead obvious...

Time for me to leave the discussion......the 4th graders have appeared (9 years-old to us Oldies)

Enjoy yourselves and play nicely children.....I'm having a full day in the fields......might post some pics of veggies later....I'm starting the "time to grow a kilo of tomatoes challenge " today.......I might even plot "time" on one axis and "weight of tomatoes" on the other......without a lag!..........toodles.

[BigFatPie]

Time for me to leave the discussion......the 4th graders have appeared (9 years-old to us Oldies)

Enjoy yourselves and play nicely children.....I'm having a full day in the fields......might post some pics of veggies later....I'm starting the "time to grow a kilo of tomatoes challenge " today.......I might even plot "time" on one axis and "weight of tomatoes" on the other......without a lag!..........toodles.

You’re a ridiculous character aren’t you. Funnily enough I don’t pretend to know a lot about epidemiology so I was wondering about the answer to a what I imagine to be basic question.

Get your vegetables to contribute on here, they’d no doubt make more sense.

[drillerpie]

There are a few options....this chart was "days since total confirmed deaths reached 0.1 per million"

I think it is a way to statistically make everyone start off at 0 (or 0.1) in this case, rather than on a specific date (the graph would have everyone "taking off" at various points along the horizontal axis if it was actually a "date" axis)

This is why everyone is actually talking about "a lag".....it isn't a lag in actual physical dates (our heated discussion from yesterday) because clearly UK and Italy spotted Covid on the same date....it is just that different countries got hit harder at the start (multiple reasons from demographics to political incompetency, lockdowns partial, lockdowns full, regional lockdowns etc etc etc), and they literally "sky-rocketed" off.

Will different countries follow the same trajectory? no idea.....clearly you think the UK will follow Italy, I don't.....Cher fears that the USA will get badly hit.....I think it's all relative....I certainly don't think they will follow Spain, France or Italy...no.

No. The opposite is true. As I explained last night, the first few cases are not used by statisticians because the outcomes are essentially random.

Anything relating to structural factors like political incompetence, lockdowns, partial lockdowns, air pollution, and whatever other mud you want to sling, will come out in the general trends visible from the large numbers.

The outcomes of the first cases, or which country goes from 1 to 15 cases more quickly (something you brought up last night) can decided by totally banal and random factors like whether the first spreader stayed at home or went out to play cards with their mates before having the test. No political decisions would've played a part in that.

But seeing as this is like getting blood from a stone why don't I turn your stubbornness back around on to you: if the UK and Italy have had coronavirus for the exact same number of days, and Italy going from 1 to 100 cases first is a sign of corruption, air pollution, incompetence, and whatever, how come the UK is now losing 1000 citizens a day while Italy is losing a lot fewer? And what is that a sign of?

[tarquinbeech]

No. The opposite is true. As I explained last night, the first few cases are not used by statisticians because the outcomes are essentially random.

Anything relating to structural factors like political incompetence, lockdowns, partial lockdowns, air pollution, and whatever other mud you want to sling, will come out in the general trends visible from the large numbers.

The outcomes of the first cases, or which country goes from 1 to 15 cases more quickly (something you brought up last night) can decided by totally banal and random factors like whether the first spreader stayed at home or went out to play cards with their mates before having the test. No political decisions would've played a part in that.

But seeing as this is like getting blood from a stone why don't I turn your stubbornness back around on to you: if the UK and Italy have had coronavirus for the exact same number of days, and Italy going from 1 to 100 cases first is a sign of corruption, air pollution, incompetence, and whatever, how come the UK is now losing 1000 citizens a day

while Italy is losing a lot fewer

? And what is that a sign of?

That's easy, most of the "low hanging fruit" in Italy are dead ie all those with 2 or more comorbidities, scarred lungs from pollution, current older smokers etc etc etc.....it's run out of kindling

ps I notice you guys got your free bail-out today, though the EU have warned you lot not to try spending it on non-Covid activities....mmm I wonder how fast the death rate will drop now?

[drillerpie]

That's easy, most of the "low hanging fruit" in Italy are dead ie all those with 2 or more comorbidities, scarred lungs from pollution, current older smokers etc etc etc.....it's run out of kindling

ps I notice you guys got your free bail-out today, though the EU have warned you lot not to try spending it on non-Covid activities....mmm I wonder how fast the death rate will drop now?

You disgust me on several levels.

[tarquinbeech]

No political decisions would've played a part in that

.

Yet more Driller bull****e.....the Italian government were absolutely slaughtered in the press for announced a total lockdown in Lombardy, whilst allowing everyone to flee to the south.

If that's not total stupidity, then what is?

Are you just acting dumb or have you been taking lessons off a few on here?

[ncfcog]

I haven’t updated the other thread I started because I felt people most inclined to study the figures had started to find their own data and sources etc. That said if I had I think my thoughts would be that the UK IS following the same trajectory as Italy and to a lesser extent Spain if we are talking about daily deaths only.

We are quite literally 15 days behind Italy in respect of daily deaths and social distancing initiatives. If we continue at the same rate then in two weeks it is very possible our death rate will be higher than Italy and Spain’s at the same time.

However, I do understand why Tarkers talks about the deaths per capita as this is then relevant to the population of each country. The problem with this where the US is concerned is that over 50% of the deaths recorded so far have been in NY so if you took this as a country the deaths per capita would probably look much worse than they do for the whole of the US currently.

I can see both sides of the argument, we are all desperate to understand more in hope of a hint of the situation improving, this is just my observations so far.