O/T What will the new 'normal' look like?

[CAMiller]

Everyone is yearning to 'get back to normal' but what will 'normal' look like when restrictions start to be lifted.

For example, working in public transportation it has been indicated to us that at least in the short term (3 months) we'll be asked, and probably rightly so, to limit our buses to 15 riders so they can keep 2m apart. These are buses that are licenced to carry 90 people (60 seated and 30 standing) and in busy times often carry many more. Now I know people are going to be wary of taking buses/trains etc. but effectively reducing all our public transportation capacity by 80% will have a massive impact on getting people 'back to work'.

Could airlines survive with the same guidelines? What would the capacity at NYS be with one person every 2m?

Some worrying food for thought?

[mikemiller]

As other posters have pointed out, without a vaccine there probably won't be a "normal", other than in a limited way for people who have had the virus and recovered... and currently we have very little information on that in the UK, so don't be in any rush to get back into the routine

[animallittle3]

I think there could be some very serious disorder on the streets in the summer months , the like we've not seen since the early 80's under Thatcher .

Unemployment will rise , movement will be restricted and the warm weather will have tempers frayed as the lockdown takes it's toll , just one major disturbance in an inner city area historically tends to start a number of them across the country .


The Police will be heavy handed to deal with it and that will cause even more problems .

Long-term the economic impact will pretty much depend on the speed new jobs are created to replace the ones lost .

There's no guarantees that the new jobs will pay the same as the old ones .

Banks will unwilling to support new start ups with loans .

As jobs disappear and people already in arrears on mortgage payments they will then lose their homes and the housing market will significantly decline having an impact on the retail sector such as curtains , furniture , carpets and DIY stores .

The price of houses will possibly decline and any homes repossessed will have a hit on the financial institutions , remember 2008 .

Having an asset based economy isn't the greatest position to be in right now .

Just my own thoughts and more than happy for someone to paint a better picture and disagree with my view .

[gm_gm]

I think there could be some very serious disorder on the streets in the summer months , the like we've not seen since the early 80's under Thatcher .

Unemployment will rise , movement will be restricted and the warm weather will have tempers frayed as the lockdown takes it's toll , just one major disturbance in an inner city area historically tends to start a number of them across the country .


The Police will be heavy handed to deal with it and that will cause even more problems .

Long-term the economic impact will pretty much depend on the speed new jobs are created to replace the ones lost .

There's no guarantees that the new jobs will pay the same as the old ones .

Banks will unwilling to support new start ups with loans .

As jobs disappear and people already in arrears on mortgage payments they will then lose their homes and the housing market will significantly decline having an impact on the retail sector such as curtains , furniture , carpets and DIY stores .

The price of houses will possibly decline and any homes repossessed will have a hit on the financial institutions , remember 2008 .

Having an asset based economy isn't the greatest position to be in right now .

Just my own thoughts and more than happy for someone to paint a better picture and disagree with my view .

Good points Animal, banks rarely lend to start ups, part funding at best, but there’s cheaper finance to be had through the start up loan company (government backed)

Some lenders are forecasting up to 20% drop in house prices, who knows.

Many experts believe some parts of the economy will recover in the short term but some will take until mid 2021, I don’t think there will be a liquidity crisis. The issues with banks is that shouldn’t lent to weak businesses, if they do we will need another bailout.

[CAMiller]

Some lenders are forecasting up to 20% drop in house prices, who knows.

You can never tell. We've been in lock down here for 4 weeks and with everything else that's going on houses are still being listed and sold despite the fact only virtual tours are allowed.

[flourbasher]

I heard a suggestion that there might be an increased demand for rural homes. I presume because of things such as being closer to nature.

I hope the media doesn't talk us into a deep recession. It won't be easy but I'm sure the Govt will be trying to talk it up and suggest that we can see some positive signs in the economy in say 6-12 months after the lockdown is lifted.
Who knows but sometimes we can talk ourselves into a longer recession than required if consumer confidence is suppressed

[animallittle3]

Let's hope we don't get a summer like we did in 2018 over the coming months .

People will be like caged tigers in a few weeks time .

There's only so much a human being can sustain even in a life and death situation .

Starting to find it difficult myself , I can only wonder how the young people are going on .

At 21 years old with no pubs , clubs or football I wouldn't have lasted a week

[Lasterman]

As other posters have pointed out, without a vaccine there probably won't be a "normal", other than in a limited way for people who have had the virus and recovered... and currently we have very little information on that in the UK, so don't be in any rush to get back into the routine

I think a more likely scenario for returning to normal is an effective treatment rather than a vaccine. From what I've read, this is probably a lot closer than a vaccine. The vast majority of people appear to have the virus with relatively mild symptoms, and so the key to a return to normal is neutralising the effect on the small minority who develop severe symptoms. When we can do that, the virus just becomes like any other - an inconvenience for most, and something that can be effectively treated for those who react badly.

[mikemiller]

As other posters have pointed out, without a vaccine there probably won't be a "normal"

According to TalkSport Radio 1030 today, Government statement has just confirmed the above, but said that SOME of the restrictions will be progressively lifted. Didn't specify which ones.

[great_fire]

As other posters have pointed out, without a vaccine there probably won't be a "normal", other than in a limited way for people who have had the virus and recovered... and currently we have very little information on that in the UK, so don't be in any rush to get back into the routine

There might not be one though, there still isn't one for SARS and that outbreak was in 2003.