The wait goes on ...

[wrinkly]

Not the way I read it mate.

I read the margin of error to be teams who go up or down in league standing based on what they are now and ppg. So if Wycombe over took us via ppg nether of us could go up automatically but as we are second no matter how well you cook the books we will go up.

Not how I see it.
I've not gone through it with a fine tooth comb but I reckon it's like this:
First - look at the league standings after ppg
Second - look at how well teams did, at the end of the season, for the last 3 seasons and compare this with how ppg, at the same stage as we are now, would have predicted they would have done by the end of the season. Use the comparison to arrive at the "margin of error" figure and adjust the ppg figure accordingly.
If a team, on average, over the last three seasons, had a better ppg in, say, the last 9 games of those seasons than the previous games in the season they would get a plus adjustment to the current season's ppg prediction. If they had a worse ppg they would get a minus adjustment.
This assumes that if a team did better/worse at the finish of the last 3 seasons they would do the same this season.
In my opinion it's total BS.
In reality it's "add the number you first thought of and if Tranmere avoid relegation - go with it"

[CAMiller]

Not how I see it.
I've not gone through it with a fine tooth comb but I reckon it's like this:
First - look at the league standings after ppg
Second - look at how well teams did, at the end of the season, for the last 3 seasons and compare this with how ppg, at the same stage as we are now, would have predicted they would have done by the end of the season. Use the comparison to arrive at the "margin of error" figure and adjust the ppg figure accordingly.
If a team, on average, over the last three seasons, had a better ppg in, say, the last 9 games of those seasons than the previous games in the season they would get a plus adjustment to the current season's ppg prediction. If they had a worse ppg they would get a minus adjustment.
This assumes that if a team did better/worse at the finish of the last 3 seasons they would do the same this season.
In my opinion it's total BS.
In reality it's "add the number you first thought of and if Tranmere avoid relegation - go with it"

I agree it's BS. Simply considering we were playing at a different level 2 of the last 3 seasons then how we did over the last 9 games is totally nonsensical.

[rolymiller]

Not how I see it.
I've not gone through it with a fine tooth comb but I reckon it's like this:
First - look at the league standings after ppg
Second - look at how well teams did, at the end of the season, for the last 3 seasons and compare this with how ppg, at the same stage as we are now, would have predicted they would have done by the end of the season. Use the comparison to arrive at the "margin of error" figure and adjust the ppg figure accordingly.
If a team, on average, over the last three seasons, had a better ppg in, say, the last 9 games of those seasons than the previous games in the season they would get a plus adjustment to the current season's ppg prediction. If they had a worse ppg they would get a minus adjustment.
This assumes that if a team did better/worse at the finish of the last 3 seasons they would do the same this season.
In my opinion it's total BS.
In reality it's "add the number you first thought of and if Tranmere avoid relegation - go with it"

Can I take it that we are still safely up Wrinks even with this method?

Also how can you adjust for previous seasons we weren't in league 1 last season.

Hopefully the EFL will see it as the BS it is... I don't doubt by some miracle Tranmere and Pboro will fit nicely into it though!

Just noticed your post by the way Cam. I thought the same thing about what league we were in then.

[wrinkly]

Can I take it that we are still safely up Wrinks even with this method?

Also how can you adjust for previous seasons we weren't in league 1 last season.

Hopefully the EFL will see it as the BS it is... I don't doubt by some miracle Tranmere and Pboro will fit nicely into it though!

Just noticed your post by the way Cam. I thought the same thing about what league we were in then.

I don't know how it would affect us Roly. I'm not 100% sure on the maths

[wrinkly]

I think there is a suggestion by Tranmere that it needs tweaking. Either way I can't be ar5ed to calculate part year ppgs for the relevant teams for the last 3 seasons. I have a sneaky feeling that the relegation places would be affected by this strange calculation though

[CASPER-64-FRANK]

https://www.sunderlandecho.com/sport...s-plan-2870562


Sunderland seem to like Tranmeres suggestion ( no surprise there ).
How can you tweak the league ?
Some teams were promoted from league 2 and some were relegated from the Championship last season.
Absolute Bullcrap !!!

[CAMiller]

All these 'models' are becoming ridiculous. The BBC website even reported one last week and said it still had us in 2nd place but when you actually dug into the numbers from the 'pencil heads' they actually had 3rd as the most likely finishing position for us. Hopefully the EFL just read the BBC report

[sawmiller]

Also as credible - pitch the managers against each other using FM Manager or other online game.......fgs!

[flourbasher]

How do Tranmere expect people to consider their proposal if it's long winded and unclear. If you want people to buy into saving Tranny from the drop then Palios has to sell it to everyone. He ain't going to do that if he hasn't explained it quickly and simply. Other Chairmen will think there's some hidden small print that will come back to bite them.

As well as us being in another division, predicting the outcome of the last nine games is guesswork no matter how much statistical analysis is undertaken because football is very unpredictable and is influenced by many many factors.

At least Desperate Dan Palios is being civil and professional in his approach though

[wrinkly]

Because of giant-killing acts in inter-division competitions (fa cup & league Cup) it's a fairly simple matter, with surprisingly few steps to "prove" that the Millers are the best team in Europe each season. eg. We beat team A, who beat team B, who beat team C who beat Liverpool - you get the gist.
Of course it is as valid a logic as Tranmere's barmy proposal