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Thread: Plotting the run-in -7 games to go!!!

  1. #11
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
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    2,252
    I could see the bees winning 5 of six.

    We are not out of woods yet. We donít score enough.

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Jan 1970
    Posts
    1,358
    I agree, that Wigan game last season still lurks dangerously in the back of my mind, I'm celebrating nothing till we're unable to be caught mathematically, that won't be for a few games yet.

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    5,285
    This week will hopefully sort things - 6 points and I may have a shandy dependent on how the other games go

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
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    5,204
    I still remember the last 7 games last season

  5. #15
    Luton at home and Blackburn away should be wins

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
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    10,703
    Quote Originally Posted by Billyni View Post
    I still remember the last 7 games last season
    Think positive William...think positive!!!!!

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    1,882
    Quote Originally Posted by OldWhiteTaff View Post
    Yesterday's result has strengthened our position compared to pre-lockdown - 8 points ahead of 3rd compared to 7 after the Hudds game. But as we all know, lots of football still to be played, so nothing nailed on as yet. The biggest threat (and in my mind only threat) now is from Brentford, and looking at their run-in, on paper they could quite conceivably pick up another 5 wins at least. Games to come:

    LUFC - Luton (H), Blackburn (A), Stoke (H), Swansea (A), Barnsley (H), Derby (A), Charlton (H)

    WBA - Sheff Wed (A), Hull (H), Derby (H), Blackburn (A), Fulham (H), Hudds (A), QPR (H)

    Brentford - Reading (A), Wigan (H), Charlton (H), Derby (A), PNE (H), Stoke (A), Barnsley (H)

    So, if Brentford were to get 16 pts (5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), that would put them on 82 pts. I reckon WBA will total c.14 pts, putting them on 85 pts. That leaves us needing another 9 pts for promotion, (Brentford's GD is +7 over us so we have to better their pts total), or 11/12 pts to be champions (we're neck and neck with WBA on GD). The most challenging scenario, (Brentford winning all their games) would put them on 87 pts, a total WBA could also reach - though I'd say the likelihood of them both winning so many of their remaining games is unlikely. But that scenario would mean we need 5 wins.

    Given that even managing 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss would be a hell of a run of form, (especially as Brentford have won their last 2 games as well, so it would have been a nine game run of W7 D1 L1), if the rest of the run-in is 'normal' from a football statistics perspective then 3 wins could well be enough.
    Essentially I agree. Being more conservative, I would say 10 points needed for safe passage to the Premier League. 14 points will certainly promote us as Champs. A word about West Brom, our closest rivals at the moment. They haven't scored a goal in 4 consecutive League matches. Very strange.

  8. #18
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    Jul 2013
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    5,204
    Quote Originally Posted by Rev72 View Post
    Think positive William...think positive!!!!!
    Im positive i remember the last 7 games last season.

  9. #19
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    Jun 2017
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    1,112
    Quote Originally Posted by Billyni View Post
    Im positive i remember the last 7 games last season.
    Hopefully these three things will help us over the line this year:

    1. We have a cushion so tomorrow's game, and then the Blackburn game, and then the Stoke game, and so on, isn't a 'must win' like all the last few games were last season when we were neck and neck with Sheff Utd
    2. The players and MB hopefully learned a lot from last year's experience, which will help this year
    3. The crowd isn't there - sounds weird but I think certainly for the Wigan meltdown last year a big contributory factor was the palpable panic emanating from the ER stands, which I think transferred to the players, so in some ways behind closed doors at ER this year might actually be a benefit - and win our 4 home games and we're almost certainly up whatever happens in the 3 away games

  10. #20
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
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    3,472
    Quote Originally Posted by OldWhiteTaff View Post
    Hopefully these three things will help us over the line this year:

    1. We have a cushion so tomorrow's game, and then the Blackburn game, and then the Stoke game, and so on, isn't a 'must win' like all the last few games were last season when we were neck and neck with Sheff Utd
    2. The players and MB hopefully learned a lot from last year's experience, which will help this year
    3. The crowd isn't there - sounds weird but I think certainly for the Wigan meltdown last year a big contributory factor was the palpable panic emanating from the ER stands, which I think transferred to the players, so in some ways behind closed doors at ER this year might actually be a benefit - and win our 4 home games and we're almost certainly up whatever happens in the 3 away games
    4 Our 4 home games are against 4 teams in the bottom 7....
    5 Our 3 away games are against **** teams, some that we despise ....

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