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Thread: Plotting the run-in -7 games to go!!!

  1. #1
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    Jun 2017
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    Plotting the run-in -7 games to go!!!

    Yesterday's result has strengthened our position compared to pre-lockdown - 8 points ahead of 3rd compared to 7 after the Hudds game. But as we all know, lots of football still to be played, so nothing nailed on as yet. The biggest threat (and in my mind only threat) now is from Brentford, and looking at their run-in, on paper they could quite conceivably pick up another 5 wins at least. Games to come:

    LUFC - Luton (H), Blackburn (A), Stoke (H), Swansea (A), Barnsley (H), Derby (A), Charlton (H)

    WBA - Sheff Wed (A), Hull (H), Derby (H), Blackburn (A), Fulham (H), Hudds (A), QPR (H)

    Brentford - Reading (A), Wigan (H), Charlton (H), Derby (A), PNE (H), Stoke (A), Barnsley (H)

    So, if Brentford were to get 16 pts (5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), that would put them on 82 pts. I reckon WBA will total c.14 pts, putting them on 85 pts. That leaves us needing another 9 pts for promotion, (Brentford's GD is +7 over us so we have to better their pts total), or 11/12 pts to be champions (we're neck and neck with WBA on GD). The most challenging scenario, (Brentford winning all their games) would put them on 87 pts, a total WBA could also reach - though I'd say the likelihood of them both winning so many of their remaining games is unlikely. But that scenario would mean we need 5 wins.

    Given that even managing 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss would be a hell of a run of form, (especially as Brentford have won their last 2 games as well, so it would have been a nine game run of W7 D1 L1), if the rest of the run-in is 'normal' from a football statistics perspective then 3 wins could well be enough.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldWhiteTaff View Post
    Yesterday's result has strengthened our position compared to pre-lockdown - 8 points ahead of 3rd compared to 7 after the Hudds game. But as we all know, lots of football still to be played, so nothing nailed on as yet. The biggest threat (and in my mind only threat) now is from Brentford, and looking at their run-in, on paper they could quite conceivably pick up another 5 wins at least. Games to come:

    LUFC - Luton (H), Blackburn (A), Stoke (H), Swansea (A), Barnsley (H), Derby (A), Charlton (H)

    WBA - Sheff Wed (A), Hull (H), Derby (H), Blackburn (A), Fulham (H), Hudds (A), QPR (H)

    Brentford - Reading (A), Wigan (H), Charlton (H), Derby (A), PNE (H), Stoke (A), Barnsley (H)

    So, if Brentford were to get 16 pts (5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), that would put them on 82 pts. I reckon WBA will total c.14 pts, putting them on 85 pts. That leaves us needing another 9 pts for promotion, (Brentford's GD is +7 over us so we have to better their pts total), or 11/12 pts to be champions (we're neck and neck with WBA on GD). The most challenging scenario, (Brentford winning all their games) would put them on 87 pts, a total WBA could also reach - though I'd say the likelihood of them both winning so many of their remaining games is unlikely. But that scenario would mean we need 5 wins.

    Given that even managing 5 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss would be a hell of a run of form, (especially as Brentford have won their last 2 games as well, so it would have been a nine game run of W7 D1 L1), if the rest of the run-in is 'normal' from a football statistics perspective then 3 wins could well be enough.
    My head hurts now!

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by WTF11 View Post
    My head hurts now!
    That's what being at a loose end on a wet Sunday afternoon does for you!

  4. #4
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    If you don't go up with that run in,you will never go up.. Take it from me Relax,you are up as champs.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldWhiteTaff View Post
    That's what being at a loose end on a wet Sunday afternoon does for you!
    "Wet Sunday afternoon"? Been a bit breezy here, but dry and now sunny!

  6. #6
    We should win at least 3 or 4 of those which you would hope would me enough to stay in the top 2

  7. #7
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    For me I think Brentford will pip West Brom who are having a poor run. Exciting team with an excellent strike force.

    So I reckon we go up as Champions and Brentford get runners up.

    Forest and WBA to fight it out for 3rd promotion place.

  8. #8
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    Jul 2012
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    Don't know what to make of WBA spend so much and its going the other way for them should have been promoted already.
    Brentford are the inform team and looking at the fixture whos to say they cant win them al.
    Now us all i can say with the games we have left its in our hands if we stuff this up we will never go up.
    Leeds 1 st
    Brentford 2nd
    Fulham 3rd Yes them to go up in playoff showed enough in the first half and if that joke of a striker they have decides to play they will go up. WBA i feel are lost.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozleeds View Post
    Don't know what to make of WBA spend so much and its going the other way for them should have been promoted already.
    Brentford are the inform team and looking at the fixture whos to say they cant win them al.
    Now us all i can say with the games we have left its in our hands if we stuff this up we will never go up.
    Leeds 1 st
    Brentford 2nd
    Fulham 3rd Yes them to go up in playoff showed enough in the first half and if that joke of a striker they have decides to play they will go up. WBA i feel are lost.
    Hoping Mitrovic gets a ban, and the hole in their attack leads them to fall like a stone. Prefer Preston to do well in the playoffs!

  10. #10
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    Personally I think we will go up as champions. The pressure is on the chasing pack, they cant afford to slip up even once, every game that is played cranks the pressure up on them as they run out of matches.

    We can afford to slip up at least twice more, though I dont think we will now.

    I also think WBA will sneak over the line. I dont want Brentford to go up because of Jansson.

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