This insanity is endless...

[1959_60]

As far as deaths are concerned we seem to be in a similar position as we were in February - at the start of the first wave. Death numbers rose dramatically in March, and it is probable that deaths will rise significantly in November. If this happens then will you accept the figures?

Deaths due to covid are beginning to rise, from well under 100 a day a few weeks ago to around 300 a day now (similar numbers to a major plane crash every day).
But the number of cases is rising very fast. Whether you quote the ONS, Imperial College or Kings College figures, the trend is quickly upwards.

If YOU were responsible for the Government's response, what would YOU do?

I'm just glad it's not MY problem...

[sinkov]

"As far as deaths are concerned we seem to be in a similar position as we were in February - at the start of the first wave. Death numbers rose dramatically in March, and it is probable that deaths will rise significantly in November. If this happens then will you accept the figures?"

It's like banging my head against a stone wall 59, but I'll try again. Death numbers rose in March, and then when social distancing began they were falling inside a month. They continued to fall as we approached summer, as all RIs do. They are rising again now, as all RIs do in autumn, so of course they will increase in November, and in December as well, they always do and will do so this year again, have you never heard of a winter bed crisis in the NHS, there are very few winters when there isn't one ?

So trying to compare death figures from March heading into summer, with death figures from October heading into winter, is going to lead to some very scary conclusions indeed, but if you compare the figures from October this year to previous October's, you find there's nothing exceptional about them currently. This much should be obvious to anyone of even average intelligence, and I rate you well above that 59, so why you have a brain freeze on this particular subject I have no idea.

Or perhaps this is why,

"Deaths due to covid are beginning to rise, from well under 100 a day a few weeks ago to around 300 a day now (similar numbers to a major plane crash every day)."

I assume you're not making your numbers up, but if not it does seem you have a very dodgy source, these are the government's own figures for recent Covid deaths in England in October.

20th 165
21st 181
22nd 171
23rd 162
24th 158
25th 186
26th 197
28th 174

Nothing untoward there, in fact I'd have expected them to be rising much faster at this time of year, and for sure they will go up quicker next month, as they always do, lockdown or no lockdown.

[oldcolner]

just trying to cite some near honest numbers...Colner - as the Spanish Flu figure, it the same as the one quoted by the CDC I believe...but if you dont believe it, I can understand why....same as elsewhere - the CDC encouraged MD's to report C'19 as a cause of death...rather than the actual cause...the patients long term underlying health conditions...as the Testing, where a Positive result doesn't necessarily mean a person is sick with it or - that they died from it.

see here:

How come the only dishonest ones are Covid, I guess lots of Spanish flu sufferers were shot in the trenches or blown to bits. These are guestimates not in any way accurate. Just pointing out the key numbers for your argument were wrong.

In the old days you had one cause of death, now you have a primary cause and contributing factors so as Covid can affect your heart you could die from a heart arythymia or coronary thrombosis caused by Covid. Do you class those as a Covid death? The CDC and PHE are saying yes do you believe it’s no?
It could affect your ability to drive so you die from trauma but had Covid Fever and vision impairment -Covid death yes or no.
Lots more scenarios for statisticians to decide.
Early Covid deaths were only those in hospital then community then care homes were added in and other countries found theirs changed over time. Comparison between countries is difficult.

[sinkov]

"Comparison between countries is difficult."

We're not agreeing on much these days OC, so I've deliberately highlighted something we can agree on. The methods of quantifying and collating Covid deaths varies so much from country to country, and I believe from state to state in the USA, that it makes any comparison virtually meaningless. This quite possibly applies to the four UK countries as well.

So we're in agreement OC, happy days.

[Norder]

.

How come the only dishonest ones are Covid, I guess lots of Spanish flu sufferers were shot in the trenches or blown to bits. These are guestimates not in any way accurate. Just pointing out the key numbers for your argument were wrong.

again....colner - the SF figure is the same figure specified by the CDC...and fairly obvious that it'll be imperfect in it's "Exactness"...much the same as those given for C'19....especially when they're counting folk with life ending ailments who die in Hospices, and show no signs of a Convid other than through a highly suspect PCR test.

[sinkov]

"The new four-week-long national lockdown could be extended beyond December 2, according to Cabinet Minister Michael Gove. "

They're getting their excuses in early, it hasn't even started yet and they're already talking about extending it. They just KNOW it won't work.

[Vintage Claret]

If social mixing is causing the infection rate to rise dramatically, why announce restrictions on a Saturday but they do not come into force until Thursday. It does not make sense, if the reason is that they need to be ratified by parliament then they should have an additional sitting today, Sunday.
Otherwise it is just an excuse for the younger members of society to have some party nights before lockdown, as happened on every occasion.

[sinkov]

I think what's causing the problem is not social mixing but the onset of winter, and winter won't disappear at the end of November. Which is why I confidently predict that this lockdown will be a very expensive waste of time. Still 'the science' say's it's necessary, the 'experts' say it's necessary, I say it's waste of time. Let's see who's right in December eh.

[Norder]

.

'the science' say's it's necessary, the 'experts' say it's necessary, I say it's waste of time. Let's see who's right in December eh.

not all Science and not all the experts...sinkov - in fact....as its going, I think the gov sponsored dreamers are now in the minority....but of course , they wont have a debate on it - get together and work it out...why ?....we know why, because it'd blow this nasty charade wide open.

Whitty made the point - Clearly. reminding us of its low-ranking importance...but then surround it with fear news - and sanity is again buried.

[sinkov]

.




not all Science and not all the experts...sinkov - in fact....as its going, I think the gov sponsored dreamers are now in the minority...

I was being sarcastic Norder, we both know there are numerous well qualified individuals and organisations who will tell you lockdown is not the way to go, but their views are suppressed in both the mainstream and social media. A fine example of just how effective this suppression is, was the fact that OC had not heard of Professor Carl Heneghan when I mentioned him to him yesterday, and OC is an intelligent poster who keeps well up with events. I reckon to have kept Heneghan out of the public eye, as they have, would even have taxed the KGB in Stalinist Russia, but they've managed it seemingly effortlessly here.

Such an efficient level of censorship with state and media working together is quite worrying imo.