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I know the arithmetic is difficult to understand (you really have to get your nut round it) but govt ministers being unable to grasp the significance of these numbers is scandalous.
Belgium and Sweden won't use these tests now as they are so unreliable.
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I watched that idiot Handoncock on BBC this morning being quizzed about the APP that's just been introduced in Englandshire. He didn't even know how it worked and he's the guy that introduced it.Originally Posted by Returnofrros
They're clueless and rudderless (UK and Scottish governments) and we all suffer.
The Generals sip Bacardi whilst the Privates feel the pain. Again.
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Is this the test that is picking up ‘dead’ coronavirus cells which are then giving a positive reading.
If so these tests should be scrapped as they are giving a falsely inflated number of positive tests.
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Rross, can you explain what you are on about. I don't listen to news programmes any more but I can't help but wonder about stuff.
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It's a really difficult thing to explain but once the penny drops and you get the maths (arithmetic really) then around 90% of the positive tests may maybe false.
Julia Hartley brewer interview with a statician today was probably the easiest (Not easy though) of how the govt and health experts are reading the stats wrong.
It's actually mind blowing how wrong.
And remember all these restrictions are based on these tests not hospiltalisations or people falling I'll.
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Julia Hartley brewer challenges grant shapps is another very good one.
He just dosent understand the figs....he's a govt minister
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Rros , was it Alex Belfield that quoted the 307 cases....
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There's been a few, he was one I think.
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Basically up to 9/10 tests that give a positive reading may be false.
Govt then claim that that's less than 1% of tests that are wrong (overall) because less than 1% are positive but if it's 9/10 of the positive tests that are wrong then that makes it 90%.....it's Not the best explanation.....Islay would be better explaining it but the information is there and govt ministers just don't seem to get it.
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Rross
Say total tests 1000000
1% are positive = 1000
9/10 are false positive implies that of the 1000, 900 are false and only 100 are true positive.
900/10000x100= 0.9% ie less than 1% of all tests are false positives.
I think they have been conning us with 20 people out of 100000 being the way they expressed the number of infections. if you express that as a percentage 20/100000x100=0.02%
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