Andrew Wilson - Economic advisor to Nicola Sturgeon

[islaydarkblue]

In last Sunday’s Sunday Times there is an article headed ‘Scots economy ‘will need time after split’.
Andrew Wilson the former MSP, former Chairman of the SNP’s growth commission and now an economic advisor to Nicola Sturgeon has played down expectations that an independent Scotland would rapidly enjoy economic prosperity on a Scandinavian scale.
Andrew Wilson states that this will take a generation of work to ensure Scotland emulates the best performing small countries in the world.
Unfortunately Andrew Wilson never stated how long he thinks this generation will take in calendar years.
Is it the normal length of time for a generation which is between 20 - 30 years or is it four years which my SNP MSP Michael Russell told me in an email he sent to me when I asked him ‘how long was a generation’.
A generation in an Independent Scotland will be as long as it takes before the politicians give up and abandon their project.

[Deeranged]

As with any transition, an unspecified and unpredictable time frame would be needed to realise any projections.

One of my biggest beefs about the whole Covid thing is governments taking the word of so called experts that present ridiculous worst case scenarios where half a million people will die and 50% of the population will get ill in six months.

Same with any predictions post independence, depending on your viewpoint Scotland would be affluent in a generation (whatever time that is) or would crash and burn in the same time frame. As with Covid the reality will be somewhere in the middle and, if we're being realistic, the result is highly likely to be more toward the positive side in the time frame quoted than the negative.

[Returnofrros]

In last Sunday’s Sunday Times there is an article headed ‘Scots economy ‘will need time after split’.
Andrew Wilson the former MSP, former Chairman of the SNP’s growth commission and now an economic advisor to Nicola Sturgeon has played down expectations that an independent Scotland would rapidly enjoy economic prosperity on a Scandinavian scale.
Andrew Wilson states that this will take a generation of work to ensure Scotland emulates the best performing small countries in the world.
Unfortunately Andrew Wilson never stated how long he thinks this generation will take in calendar years.
Is it the normal length of time for a generation which is between 20 - 30 years or is it four years which my SNP MSP Michael Russell told me in an email he sent to me when I asked him ‘how long was a generation’.
A generation in an Independent Scotland will be as long as it takes before the politicians give up and abandon their project.

Only 4 years then....lol

[islaydarkblue]

As with any transition, an unspecified and unpredictable time frame would be needed to realise any projections.

One of my biggest beefs about the whole Covid thing is governments taking the word of so called experts that present ridiculous worst case scenarios where half a million people will die and 50% of the population will get ill in six months.

Same with any predictions post independence, depending on your viewpoint Scotland would be affluent in a generation (whatever time that is) or would crash and burn in the same time frame. As with Covid the reality will be somewhere in the middle and, if we're being realistic, the result is highly likely to be more toward the positive side in the time frame quoted than the negative.

A newly independent Scotland which has previously become very dependent on a block grant from the Westminster Government does not have time to aspire to become an affluent country. It has to hit the ground running.
If the electorate in Scotland vote in favour of Scotland leaving the UK and becoming an independent country there is no going back after five years because the pro independence supporters project has proved to be a disaster.
A number of people on Islay have complained for years that Islay is the wealthiest island in the world because of the amount of taxation that leaves the island due to the production of whisky.
This is another myth. The duty is only paid when the whisky leaves the bonded warehouses and most of the whisky produced on Islay is transported by road tanker to bonded warehouses in Central Scotland.
On this basis the area near Alloa is the wealthiest part of Scotland.
You may remember me posting on here that after I received details of my Covid-19 test being negative from the Public Health Scotland doctor I had a short discussion with her where she admitted that they expected 7% of the population to contract coronavirus.
That means that 93% of the population are not expected to contract coronavirus but hundreds of thousands of the them could lose their job over the policy decisions taken by the health experts and politicians.
The incompetence regarding this pandemic started at the end of January 2020.
I have a relative whose next door neighbour returned from a skiing holiday in Northern Italy. The Covid-19 virus at that time was rife in Northern Italy yet when this person flew back to the UK on arrival they were handed a sheet of paper about coronavirus but at no time were they advised to self isolate. After flying back to Scotland the same thing happened. They were handed a sheet of paper but no instructions to self isolate.
My relative’s neighbour self isolated because this person works in the health service and knew what to do.
Yet again another case of ‘shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted’.
.

[islaydarkblue]

Only 4 years then....lol

Michael Russell asked me how long I a thought a generation was. I replied that legally in Scotland it could be 16 years but in reality it was between 20 and 30 years.
Michael Russell did not reply to my email and the following month (February 2020) he announced that he was not standing for re-election as the SNP MSP for the Argyll and Bute constituency at the Scottish Government elections in May 2021.
In my opinion Michael Russell should have immediately stepped down as an MSP forcing a by election instead of receiving an MSP’s salary and promoted post salary for the next 14 months.
During his time as the MSP for Argyll and Bute Michael Russell has done nothing about trying to permanently resolve the closure of the A83 at the Rest and be Thankful every time there is heavy rain as he has been too busy trying to get Brexit stopped.

[Deeranged]

A newly independent Scotland which has previously become very dependent on a block grant from the Westminster Government does not have time to aspire to become an affluent country. It has to hit the ground running.

That's worst case Islay.

Yes, the block grant from Westminster would eventually stop but then the outflow of cash from Scotland to Westminster, which contributes significantly to the block grant, would also stop so the net loss is not the total of any block grant and it's wrong to say the its value would suddenly disappear.

There are figures out there which differ depending on which side produced them, personally I'm not an economist and don't know who to believe. My inclination toward independence is based mainly on what I see as centuries of oppression and I'm confident that those with the economic background would carry it off.

I recently lost a good friend who was a retired Professor of Economics at St. Andrews University. He was adamant that Scotland had nothing to worry about economically in the event of independence, indeed would most likely prosper after an initial short stagger whilst adapting. No offence to you or anyone else but I'll trust his judgement and opinion before I'll trust any spin doctor or politician with a personal or party agenda.

[noahrab]

That's worst case Islay.

Yes, the block grant from Westminster would eventually stop but then the outflow of cash from Scotland to Westminster, which contributes significantly to the block grant, would also stop so the net loss is not the total of any block grant and it's wrong to say the its value would suddenly disappear.

There are figures out there which differ depending on which side produced them, personally I'm not an economist and don't know who to believe. My inclination toward independence is based mainly on what I see as centuries of oppression and I'm confident that those with the economic background would carry it off.

I recently lost a good friend who was a retired Professor of Economics at St. Andrews University. He was adamant that Scotland had nothing to worry about economically in the event of independence, indeed would most likely prosper after an initial short stagger whilst adapting. No offence to you or anyone else but I'll trust his judgement and opinion before I'll trust any spin doctor or politician with a personal or party agenda.

Centuries of oppression

Dont forget they called you Jock, and you’ve hated them ever since.

[BCram]

Think there might be something your friends assertion Deeranged but there has never been an explanation how the deficit can be overcome. GERS figures are supposed to show the size of the deficit but the nationalists dispute the validity of the calculation. I can't remember the name of the report that made clear the oil revenues were enough to make Scotland a wealthy nation. It was done to deprive the Nationalist movement of this fact that made independence a prosperous probability, possibly even a certainty.
Oil prospects have plummeted and so the additional tax revenues are not available. I think that Andrew Wilson's report was very disappointing for the economic case for independence. In fairness to him he has retained his credibility by creating a realistic report which is to be praised.
I don't know why the independence economists can't produce a convincing case, so I am still in the doubting side of the discussion.

[noahrab]

Think there might be something your friends assertion Deeranged but there has never been an explanation how the deficit can be overcome. GERS figures are supposed to show the size of the deficit but the nationalists dispute the validity of the calculation. I can't remember the name of the report that made clear the oil revenues were enough to make Scotland a wealthy nation. It was done to deprive the Nationalist movement of this fact that made independence a prosperous probability, possibly even a certainty.
Oil prospects have plummeted and so the additional tax revenues are not available. I think that Andrew Wilson's report was very disappointing for the economic case for independence. In fairness to him he has retained his credibility by creating a realistic report which is to be praised.
I don't know why the independence economists can't produce a convincing case, so I am still in the doubting side of the discussion.

6yrs on and they still can’t tell us what currency we’d use if independent.

Hardly inspiring.

[Deeranged]

Well that was easy