Can it get more ridiculous

[Returnofrros]

Dundee has 272 covid infections. The population is 144k so our rate per 100k is 272/1.44=189. The criteria for Tier 3 between 150 and 300 cases per 100,000 people
between 5% and 10% positive tests
very high probability of 300 cases per 100,000 in two weeks' time
the projection of hospital bed use in the health board in four weeks' time is greater than the health board's share of 2,000 beds nationally
the projection of ICU bed use in the health board in three weeks' time is greater than twice its normal capacity

I really want to understand what this all means. In particular I do not understand the difference between the very high probability of 300 cases per 100k in two weeks time and the projection in 4 weeks time for ICU bed use will be greater than than twice its normal capacity.

Does the figure of 189 per 100k work out at 189/100000x100=0.189%?
How is the range between 5-10%of positive tests applied?

I see that Perth transferred some of their ICU capacity to Dundee. How does that decision affect things?

I am fed up not understanding what is basically some simple arithmetic- can anyone help me?

Pointless trying Bcram.

This is much more now, it's political and galloping loss of freedom.

My basic theory is to ignore absolutely everything they say.

Locking down the sick is what time, locking down the healthy is tyranny.

[Taintedice]

After reading the posts on this topic I did what I should have done in the first place.

I actually thought you were away to say 'I put on a scarf and a hat'

[islaydarkblue]

Dundee has 272 covid infections. The population is 144k so our rate per 100k is 272/1.44=189. The criteria for Tier 3 between 150 and 300 cases per 100,000 people
between 5% and 10% positive tests
very high probability of 300 cases per 100,000 in two weeks' time
the projection of hospital bed use in the health board in four weeks' time is greater than the health board's share of 2,000 beds nationally
the projection of ICU bed use in the health board in three weeks' time is greater than twice its normal capacity

I really want to understand what this all means. In particular I do not understand the difference between the very high probability of 300 cases per 100k in two weeks time and the projection in 4 weeks time for ICU bed use will be greater than than twice its normal capacity.

Does the figure of 189 per 100k work out at 189/100000x100=0.189%?
How is the range between 5-10%of positive tests applied?

I see that Perth transferred some of their ICU capacity to Dundee. How does that decision affect things?

I am fed up not understanding what is basically some simple arithmetic- can anyone help me?

The question is.
Have these so called ‘experts’ at Public Health Scotland and the Scottish Government included all the students in their calculations for the number of people living within the Dundee City Council area. I have previously read that there are 10,000 students living in flats and halls of residence in Dundee plus hundreds more St Andrews University students who live in Dundee and travel daily to St Andrews for their studies.
That is why there is an excellent bus service between Dundee and St Andrews.
Nicola Sturgeon and her special advisers (SPADS) are going to have to go back to the drawing board and calculate exactly how many people are currently living in Dundee as the current voters role plus children up to and including 15 years of age is no use.

[BCram]

Pointless trying Bcram.

This is much more now, it's political and galloping loss of freedom.

My basic theory is to ignore absolutely everything they say.

Locking down the sick is what time, locking down the healthy is tyranny.

Disagree Rross. There is supposed to be a scientific logic that is being applied. I don't think our MPs and MSPs are doing anything other than letting the experts have a free rein. The trouble is that mistakes have been made and I think there is an element of covering their backs. If we could get people who actually can explain what all the conditions for the Tiers mean in ways that even politicians can understand we might actually get a "no blame" change of plan because there could be a sensible discussion. Just now nobody seems to be able to drill down into the numbers and explain what they mean. It is frustrating when they use percentage changes rather than actual numbers. 2 deaths going up to 3 deaths is a 50% increase which sounds horrific.

[BCram]

The question is.
Have these so called ‘experts’ at Public Health Scotland and the Scottish Government included all the students in their calculations for the number of people living within the Dundee City Council area. I have previously read that there are 10,000 students living in flats and halls of residence in Dundee plus hundreds more St Andrews University students who live in Dundee and travel daily to St Andrews for their studies.
That is why there is an excellent bus service between Dundee and St Andrews.
Nicola Sturgeon and her special advisers (SPADS) are going to have to go back to the drawing board and calculate exactly how many people are currently living in Dundee as the current voters role plus children up to and including 15 years of age is no use.

Good point. Changing the numbers to 154k for population of Dundee makes the 272/1.54=181 per hundred thousand. I don't think that's a material change and would not expect any change in the basis for Dundee City Council. It might be that a significant number of our infections are associated with students and perhaps we might actually have levels that would put us into Tier 2 if the students went back home?

[Returnofrros]

Disagree Rross. There is supposed to be a scientific logic that is being applied. I don't think our MPs and MSPs are doing anything other than letting the experts have a free rein. The trouble is that mistakes have been made and I think there is an element of covering their backs. If we could get people who actually can explain what all the conditions for the Tiers mean in ways that even politicians can understand we might actually get a "no blame" change of plan because there could be a sensible discussion. Just now nobody seems to be able to drill down into the numbers and explain what they mean. It is frustrating when they use percentage changes rather than actual numbers. 2 deaths going up to 3 deaths is a 50% increase which sounds horrific.

Supposed...
Key word.

Remember way way way way back when I said politicians have to admit they have made an error before anything changes and they change tack.

In medicine I think they call it a stop meeting....if the patient isn't getting better they stop and discuss if they are giving correct treatment.

No matter how much you try and understand the figures it won't help.....they either change tack or the public forces them to change tack.

Neither will happen, hide and seek will continue.

Covid 19 is here for good, quicker people realise it the better.

[Deeranged]

Supposed...
Key word.

Remember way way way way back when I said politicians have to admit they have made an error before anything changes and they change tack.

In medicine I think they call it a stop meeting....if the patient isn't getting better they stop and discuss if they are giving correct treatment.

No matter how much you try and understand the figures it won't help.....they either change tack or the public forces them to change tack.

Neither will happen, hide and seek will continue.

Covid 19 is here for good, quicker people realise it the better.

It's called a time out in my industry - what that really means is a reality check.

[Returnofrros]

[QUOTE=Deeranged;39610237]It's called a time out in my industry - what that really means is a reality check.

I think this country is actually past the point of no return.

All our futures compromised by eejit leaders, stupid MSM and blinkered public.

Heard a figure 're the amount of cancer screenings that have been missed....it's terrifying.

Maybe if they had daily unemployment predictions, daily projected cancer deaths, daily projected suicides and daily projected business closures it would be an even playing field but NO all we get is cases the vast majority of which aren't even cases they are A symptomatic people who feel perfectly ok.

[BCram]

[QUOTE=Returnofrros;39610249]

It's called a time out in my industry - what that really means is a reality check.

I think this country is actually past the point of no return.

All our futures compromised by eejit leaders, stupid MSM and blinkered public.

Heard a figure 're the amount of cancer screenings that have been missed....it's terrifying.

Maybe if they had daily unemployment predictions, daily projected cancer deaths, daily projected suicides and daily projected business closures it would be an even playing field but NO all we get is cases the vast majority of which aren't even cases they are A symptomatic people who feel perfectly ok.

I agree that there seems to be an official line that ignores all of the above. I assume that the concept of the greatest bad is covid 19 has been selected. I wonder if this approach is flawed because if the choice was between doing everything else and leaving covid control to wash your hands, stay indoors if you are unwell and if you have to go out make sure you keep 2m separation perhaps things would be better overall?

The trouble, as you point out, is that there is no balance in the discussion. I think explaining the numbers is possible but it needs pressure from the politicians to get that. You can't get Stewart Leitch or Chris Whitty to change their advice if all you are asking them is how do you defeat covid-19. You need to ask for a new way forward, which starts with the presumption that lockdown is not the answer.

I think there should be an immediate investigation into the Boots test. How can they deliver it so quickly, why does it cost £120 and why is it not being used by every health and social care worker every day?


i would also love to know what the German and French governments are doing to support their economies. All we hear about are the restrictions, I want to know how they are buying compliance.

[Returnofrros]

[QUOTE=BCram;39610525]

I agree that there seems to be an official line that ignores all of the above. I assume that the concept of the greatest bad is covid 19 has been selected. I wonder if this approach is flawed because if the choice was between doing everything else and leaving covid control to wash your hands, stay indoors if you are unwell and if you have to go out make sure you keep 2m separation perhaps things would be better overall?

The trouble, as you point out, is that there is no balance in the discussion. I think explaining the numbers is possible but it needs pressure from the politicians to get that. You can't get Stewart Leitch or Chris Whitty to change their advice if all you are asking them is how do you defeat covid-19. You need to ask for a new way forward, which starts with the presumption that lockdown is not the answer.

I think there should be an immediate investigation into the Boots test. How can they deliver it so quickly, why does it cost £120 and why is it not being used by every health and social care worker every day?


i would also love to know what the German and French governments are doing to support their economies. All we hear about are the restrictions, I want to know how they are buying compliance.

Sweden is the utopia example.

It's basically what they have done, wash your hands, keep a bit of distance and here's the risks.

There are folk in England who get a bit more air time and talk radio is a beacon for putting the other side but in Scotland Just like any other issue, debate is closed down.

Nothing will change. In Scotland the SNP have used covid for a push for independence, everything else is secondary

In the UK Johnson got ill at the worst possible time.

We are still following the scientists who said 1.5 million dead and 70 % of over 70s hospitalised. They have got it completely wrong but won't admit it......it's not a ****ing crime to be wrong but once politicians have nailed their colours they rarely turn.

What's happened to this country is unforgivable now.

On a side note.

Got a phone call from someone who works in the industry I used to work in.....he's self employed.

He's doing very nicely out of furlough and bounce back loans and money for keeping his wife's imaginary job open.....as well as continuing to work with no loss of earnings.