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Thread: National League PPG Table

  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2002
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    Quote Originally Posted by 60YearsAPie View Post
    Torquay surprisingly only managed a draw at King's Lynn, so we drop 1 point further behind them but now have a game in hand.

    With Solihull Moors losing at home to Bromley, Notts move up a place to 5th in the only table that matters.

    Attachment 17776
    Thanks for doing this 60 years a pie. It will be good to see this table after each game as it is the true table due to so many teams having played such a differing amount of games.

    Below is the points per game of the teams that have been automatically promoted over the past five seasons.

    Barrow = 1.89ppg
    Leyton Orient = 1.93ppg
    Macclesfield = 2.00ppg
    Lincoln = 2.15ppg
    Cheltenham = 2.20ppg

    This gives an average of 2.03ppg. Our current ppg is 1.67. It’s not enough to get automatic promotion.

    This is why along with our performances in games being unconvincing of title challenging, the number of defeats so far and Torquay being so far in front for me our hopes of winning the title are slim at this stage and at best it will be playoffs this season.

    We would need to go on at least a four win streak and Torquay lose four in a row to catch them up. It’s not impossible but we didn’t do what we needed to do this season and hit the ground running and have lost to poor sides. So we are playing catch up now which makes it so much more difficult.

  2. #22
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    I've got data now similar to what Ardley gets from the owners (I forget what he calls it) which also looks at performances and provides expected points data based not just on goals but chances created and difficulty of opposition. I'll be including these in the Stockport preview which I'll try and get up later today if I can. Makes for interesting reading.

  3. #23
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    Jan 2009
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    Quote Originally Posted by MAD_MAGPIE View Post
    Thanks for doing this 60 years a pie. It will be good to see this table after each game as it is the true table due to so many teams having played such a differing amount of games.

    Below is the points per game of the teams that have been automatically promoted over the past five seasons.

    Barrow = 1.89ppg
    Leyton Orient = 1.93ppg
    Macclesfield = 2.00ppg
    Lincoln = 2.15ppg
    Cheltenham = 2.20ppg

    This gives an average of 2.03ppg. Our current ppg is 1.67. It’s not enough to get automatic promotion.

    This is why along with our performances in games being unconvincing of title challenging, the number of defeats so far and Torquay being so far in front for me our hopes of winning the title are slim at this stage and at best it will be playoffs this season.

    We would need to go on at least a four win streak and Torquay lose four in a row to catch them up. It’s not impossible but we didn’t do what we needed to do this season and hit the ground running and have lost to poor sides. So we are playing catch up now which makes it so much more difficult.
    Regarding Torquay, we need to remember that we have to play them twice. IF we were to beat them twice then 'We would need to go on at least a four win streak and Torquay lose four in a row to catch them up' isn't strictly true.

    Please don't spoilt this great thread by discussing how that won't happen. I'm not saying it will, just looking at hypotheticals. Equally of course if they were to beat us twice, I think automatic promotion would be out of our range. I guess that is why they call them 6 pointers!

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by magpie_mania View Post
    Regarding Torquay, we need to remember that we have to play them twice. IF we were to beat them twice then 'We would need to go on at least a four win streak and Torquay lose four in a row to catch them up' isn't strictly true.

    Please don't spoilt this great thread by discussing how that won't happen. I'm not saying it will, just looking at hypotheticals. Equally of course if they were to beat us twice, I think automatic promotion would be out of our range. I guess that is why they call them 6 pointers!
    I see a squadron of flying pigs ...x

  5. #25
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    If Torquay continued to accumulate points at their present rate (2.46 per game) they’d end up with 108 points by the end of the season. That would mean that for Notts to get automatic promotion we’d need 89 points from our remaining 32 games! In other words, we’d need to win 29, draw 2, and lose 1. No chance!

    Should Torquay implode and Stockport come out on top, at their current rate (2.11 per game) they would end up with 93 points. That would mean Notts would need 74 points over our remaining games. In other words, we’d need to win 24, draw 2, and lose 6. Possible but not probable.

    There’s still a long way to go though, and plenty of twists and turns to come. Who’s to say that the likes of Torquay, Stockport and Eastleigh will continue to pick up points at their current rate?

    One thing’s for sure, we need to beat Stockport on Tuesday. A defeat would see them pull away from us even further and would knock us out of the play-off places in the PPG Table.

    It really is a 6-pointer!

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    I've got data now similar to what Ardley gets from the owners (I forget what he calls it) which also looks at performances and provides expected points data based not just on goals but chances created and difficulty of opposition. I'll be including these in the Stockport preview which I'll try and get up later today if I can. Makes for interesting reading.
    I think he calls it the 'fair score'.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
    I think he calls it the 'fair score'.
    Ah yes that's right. I'm getting some similar data now and can see what he's talking about but good percentile performances don't always get you points on the board. Using a similar method which calculates expected points based on performances Torquay would be on just over 10 points less than they currently have. This means they have accummulated +10 points more than their performances have warranted. So what does this tell us? Maybe they have had a lucky run of results and haven't played many teams with a higher difficulty rating. Maybe they are just more efficient in front of goal and taking more of their chances? Hopefully it means whatever they have achieved so far is that far removed from their performances that it is not going to be sustainable and I think this is how the owners at Notts will be looking at it.

  8. #28
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    Feb 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncfcog View Post
    Ah yes that's right. I'm getting some similar data now and can see what he's talking about but good percentile performances don't always get you points on the board. Using a similar method which calculates expected points based on performances Torquay would be on just over 10 points less than they currently have. This means they have accummulated +10 points more than their performances have warranted. So what does this tell us? Maybe they have had a lucky run of results and haven't played many teams with a higher difficulty rating. Maybe they are just more efficient in front of goal and taking more of their chances? Hopefully it means whatever they have achieved so far is that far removed from their performances that it is not going to be sustainable and I think this is how the owners at Notts will be looking at it.
    That's a great post which raises some really interesting questions.

  9. #29
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    Jun 2015
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    Here’s the current PPG table after last Tuesday’s games. I’ve added an additional column that translates the PPG into Points over 44 games.

    This shows the gap between Notts and automatic promotion, if teams continue to pick up points at the same rate they have done so far. At this stage of the season a win or a defeat can make quite a difference to this.

    Prior to Tuesday’s games the gap projected to the end of the season based on PPG was:

    Torquay (2.46) 108 – Notts (1.67) 73 = -35

    Following Tuesday’s games, the gap is now:

    Torquay (2.29) 101 – Notts (1.77) 78 = -23

    A win for us and a defeat for Torquay last Tuesday cut the end of season deficit by 12 points.

    Don’t rule out automatic promotion yet! For instance, if Torquay lose their next 2 games and Notts win their next 2 the gap drops to -3

    What price Notts for automatic promotion?

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  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by 60YearsAPie View Post
    Don’t rule out automatic promotion yet! For instance, if Torquay lose their next 2 games and Notts win their next 2 the gap drops to -3

    What price Notts for automatic promotion?
    13/2 to be champions
    11/4 to be promoted
    1/3 to finish in the top 7

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