I can't work out why throughout the summer when lockdown ended and people hit the beaches & holidayed abroad that the rates & hospitalisations stayed so low then an explosion of cases as soon as the schools went back, perhaps universities were more significant as the students are a national group vs a local group in schools.

Then - schools close over Christmas and cases surge again, beginning with the ending of partial lockdown very early December. Wales have had greater restrictions for longer but that doesn't appear to be doing anything. I know some will break the rules no matter what but most people I've seen are wearing masks and taking steps to put space between themselves & others wherever possible. I think that has always been so (in other words we are comparing ourselves against ourselves summer into winter), so what is going on?