Oh F**k, here we go again...

[The Bedlington Terrier]

The crisis is now being significantly ramped up.

Yesterday I read, 1 in every 50 households in between 27/12/20 to 03/.01/21 had the corona virus.

Today that has risen to 1 in every 50 people in between 27/12/20 to 03/1/21 had the corona virus.

How could any statistician possibly come up with those figures by 05/01/21?

The Cabal really must think we are all fecking eejits.

[sinkov]

Sinkov
You also need to add in the time for deaths to be recorded by registrars which can take up to a week legally and possibly longer if Covid affects relatives or registrars.

Some folk die quickly but others can take weeks or months, those over 28 days post test aren’t counted though and are around an additional 15- 20% of deaths quoted.

Yes it's imprecise OC, it's an average, but while there will be variations with individual cases, there has to be a baseline, and it's not my opinion or estimate, it's what appeared to be the concensus at the start of this outbreak, that on average, there will be a time lag of about 4 weeks between infection and death. Therefore, for any increase or decrease in death rate you need to be looking back around a month for any potential cause. Anything happening within a month of a surge, or reduction in deaths, was probably not the cause.

I do realise also that the above will be challenged whenever it doesn't fit an agenda, but it was the received wisdom at the beginning of this pandemic, it's the timeline I've used since to base my opinions on, and the one I shall continue to use.

[sinkov]

Sinkov
Lockdowns do work in slowing down the curve and protecting the NHS from being swamped if the virus is left uncontrolled.
The 6 month lockdown in Wuhan also worked in stopping and eradicating the virus because people did as they were told under a police state.
That length of lockdown here would be unacceptable and it’s clear many people don’t comply with them anyway and we don’t enforce them.
You keep blaming politicians and public health staff but some folk need to look in the mirror to see who is responsible for where we are

The facts show lockdowns don't work, I keep putting government stats up to prove this fact but they appear to go way above your head OC, so I won't waste my time putting up any more, but I can if you insist.

The best they can possibly do is 'flatten the sombrero' to some extent, but it's just an excercise in kicking the can down the road, they just postpone the problem until later, at enormous cost.

Looks like the straw man is back. Could you point out where I blame politicians and public health staff, and what it is I actually blame them for ? Apart from politicians misleading use of the stats that is, but that's no fault of the poor bloody infantry in the NHS, could you point out where I've said it is.

As for the general public being responsible, what lockdowns fans never seem to take into account is that there are still millions of people who have to go to work, lockdown or not, millions of people who have to go out shopping, nurses and doctors have to go to work, police, ambulance, fire service, supermarket staff, transport, post office, banks, shopkeepers etc, etc, are you blaming them, or are you claiming none of them are helping the virus to spread ?

Of course it's not their fault, they have to carry on, but they just show that lockdowns, fine in theory, just can't work in practice.

[The Bedlington Terrier]

The facts show lockdowns don't work, I keep putting government stats up to prove this fact but they appear to go way above your head OC, so I won't waste my time putting up any more, but I can if you insist.

The best they can possibly do is 'flatten the sombrero' to some extent, but it's just an excercise in kicking the can down the road, they just postpone the problem until later, at enormous cost.

Looks like the straw man is back. Could you point out where I blame politicians and public health staff, and what it is I actually blame them for ? Apart from politicians misleading use of the stats that is, but that's no fault of the poor bloody infantry in the NHS, could you point out where I've said it is.

As for the general public being responsible, what lockdowns fans never seem to take into account is that there are still millions of people who have to go to work, lockdown or not, millions of people who have to go out shopping, nurses and doctors have to go to work, police, ambulance, fire service, supermarket staff, transport, post office, banks, shopkeepers etc, etc, are you blaming them, or are you claiming none of them are helping the virus to spread ?

Of course it's not their fault, they have to carry on, but they just show that lockdowns, fine in theory, just can't work in practice.

Sadly sinkov, the evidence supports your assertion. Unless every man, jack, woman and their brood stayed insulated inside for 14 days, Lockdowns cannot possibly work.

That's why the little feckers that released this chemical warfare upon us can carry on with their lives, while the rest of us can't.

[sinkov]

Public Health England
All-Cause Mortality Surveillance
31 December 2020 – Week 53 report (up to week 52 data)

"In week 52 2020, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality by week of death
was observed overall in England through the EuroMOMO algorithm. In the devolved
administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all ages was
observed for Wales in week 52. This data should be interpreted with caution due to
delays in reporting over the Christmas period.

All-cause death registrations (ONS), England and Wales.

In week 51 2020, an estimated 13,011 all-cause deaths were registered in England and Wales
(source: Office for National Statistics). This is a similar to the 12,292 estimated death
registrations in week 50 2020.

Excess all-cause (EuroMOMO) mortality in subpopulations, UK.

In week 52 2020 in England, no statistically significant excess mortality by week of death above
the 2 z-score threshold was seen overall, by age group and sub-nationally (all ages) after
correcting GRO disaggregate data for reporting delay with the standardised EuroMOMO
algorithm (Figure 3). This data is provisional due to the time delay in registration; numbers may
vary from week to week.

In the devolved administrations, no statistically significant excess all-cause mortality for all
ages was observed for Northern Ireland in week 51. Statistically significant excess mortality
was observed for Scotland in week 48. Data was not available for Wales."

How strange, here we are, last week in December, as the so-called second wave crashes all around us, and Public Health England find nothing untoward, figures up slightly on last year but just another winter's day at the office as far as they're concerned. Strange indeed.

[kritichris]

My niece, a ward sister has just gone back to work after a two week break. She said it wasn't overly busy just before she went on leave but is manic now.

[alfinyalcabo]

Over 1000 deaths today according to the news reports.

[Norder]

.

Over 1000 deaths today according to the news reports.

and now, for some more Words.


4 billion lolly roger egg banjo bannana cream tree monkies swimming in wooly jumpers - according to news reports.

[sinkov]

Over 1000 deaths today according to the news reports.

FAKE NEWS Alfie. There were not over 1000 deaths today.

[kritichris]

FAKE NEWS Alfie. There were not over 1000 deaths today.

All the main news and statistic sites are reporting this number, what do you want sinkov, names?