11 games for me, get 15 points because after that we have a horrible run of:

Man City (H)
Liverpool (A)
Man U (H)
Brighton (A)
Spurs (H)

I would not want to be going into that run needing points to guarantee safety. Yes many are at home but without fans there it makes little to no difference. From that run I'd honestly be delighted with 5/6 points!

Before that our run goes:
Newcastle (A) Win
Leicester (A) Lose
Everton (H) Draw
Palace (H) Win
Arsenal (A) Draw
Wolves (A) Draw
Villa (H) Win
West Ham (A) Draw
Chelsea (H) Lose
Fulham (A) Win
Sheff U (H) Win

From that run I genuinely see 7 games we should have a chance of winning, only ones I don't fancy us in are Leicester (which is partly why I think beating Newcastle is *****) and Chelsea depending on whether they find their form again.

I think Everton, Arsenal, Palace, Wolves and Villa will give us tough games but I think we can pick up 2 wins from those.

Then rest Sheff U, Fulham, West Ham, Newcastle I think we should be beating if we want to stay up.

Like I said pick up say 4 wins and maybe 2 draws from that 11 and we will be fine, which I don't think is unrealistic. I just hope we can get Koch fit, keep Llorente fit and ensure Kalvin remains fit/not suspended during that run. I want to go into our tough run after these with a bit of freedom, a chance to play without fear of NEEDING results.