Nae update today because the info is far too complicated for me to be bothered with tonight!
2m first and second doses will have been exceeded today, and im sure 2m first doses will be passed next week.
We are on a bit of an upturn this week in New Daily Infections back through the 600s, but percentage of tests undertaken appear to remain the same. And yes Glasgow is one of the areas showing a significant increase but many others are showing an uptick of sorts.
Prof Linda Bauld has been on the box saying this could all be over by June, and i hope nobody is paying any heed to her comments, or Nic is getting nae votes when the walls come tumbling down!
I think what's more important is the number of people requiring hospital treatment, rather than just case numbers. This whole fiasco is predicated on protecting the NHS and it's these figures (and deaths obviously) that are more relevant now the immunisation process is doing so well, IMHO.
To me, its the numbers vaccinated which is the most important just now, and that is the info i try to concentrate on.
Far too early to discount daily cases as it is the figure that is considered first for us getting out of lockdown. There is some good news filtering out that vaccinations are exceeding expectations and we may be pushing on for 2m first doses, but in reality, you have to look back at the figures of 2-3 weeks ago to see the numbers (1.5m?) who should have built up partial immunity. Then consider that only 150k have received a second dose, and again 2-3 weeks until those people have their immunity maximized.
We have done well with the vaccinations, but there is 59% of the adult population still to get their first dose, never mind their second, including Cohorts 6-9 all still under 50%. That 59% contains people in their 30s who are ending up in hospital and ICU, and remember the death of a 28 year old no so long ago, and I wonder if you noticed the death of a teacher in Clackmannan through the week, an area where cases/100k have been high. That is not to rake up old disagreements though!
So to me, daily infections are still very relevant, because if we identify and isolate the infections, trace test and isolate their contacts, we drive down the New Daily Infections which reduces hospital and ICU admissions, which prevents people dying. That reduces the chance of further mutations, gives us the best chance of getting out of lockdown and in turn giving the vaccines their best chance of protecting us and getting us back to normal!
And unfortunately we're doing less than half the number of vaccinations per day than we were doing four weeks ago.
That's fair comment, all of it. It's really good to get a different view on things like this, one of the major drawbacks of social restrictions is the huge reduction in opportunities for this. Ok, we can do it online like this but then conversations are slower and less organic.
This is what I found what she actually said (from the BBC):
"I am optimistic that much of what we have lost over the last few months we will regain by mid-June, late-June."
So, she's saying we could go back to the way things were a few months ago. No mention of it all being over.