Over the latter half of the season, in terms of matches to be played, Carlisle United need do not much more than win one and lose one of every two games in order to finish a point above fourth place.

Starting this with a win on Tuesday, followed by a defeat etc until the end of the season produces twelve wins and eleven defeats, thus 36 points.

So that would be a total of 78 points. Over the last ten years the average number of points needed to finish with one point more than fourth place is 81 points. Thus the target for the remaining matches is not much more than a win and a defeat in every two matches.

I think that this season the top few teams are much of a muchness and that 79 points may be enough to be one more than fourth place.