I will try again. I would be critical of any political party that has behaved in the way that the SNP have done with regard to the Salmond inquiry. I don't understand why you can't accept that I am not a supporter of independence but I could be convinced if the arguments were rational. Of course political leaders are usually replaced by their own parties. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn were deposed by their own supporters. I suspect that Nicola will be deposed if there is no majority SNP government returned at the May election and further if she does not deliver a 50% plus share of the vote I would expect Westminster to deny any request for Indyref 2. The interest for me will be to see how the Green vote holds up. They sold their support to the SNP so perhaps their nationalist policy might put off more voters, or they might cannibalize some of the SNP vote.
The reference to you and Islay was meant as a compliment in the hope that it might encourage you both to post. I am not sure what the odds mean. Perhaps Rross could explain the difference between 15 to 8 and 8 to 15 mean . I think you are right in thinking that these odds show a betting expectation that SNP might form a majority government. However the point is the direction of travel and I think these odds are lower than previously and might be showing that the Salmond Inquiry is making people question whether they want more of the same.
They were 1/6 for a majority a month ago...so if they ran election 7 times they would get a majority 6 times out of 7.
8/15.....They have election 23 times (8+15) they would get a majority on 15 occasions, 8 times they wouldn't.
8/13...They have election 21 times they get a majority 13 times they would get a majority 8 times they wouldn't.
They are favs to get a majority but the odds are lengthening on this happening.
From almost a certainty 4 weeks ago to probable but by no means certain now.
In a fortnight this maybe down to reasonably possible.😁
In % terms from an 86% probability of getting a majority to 57%.......according to the bookies
Thanks Islay. The direction of travel does seem to be important.