Macron plans to be the most important leader in the EU after Merkel retires .....

[Dick Large]

..... in September.

But he has plenty of trouble in France and recent opinion polls show that in a head-to-head with Marine Le Pen she is slightly ahead. The 'play-off final' of the French presidential election will be in May next year. Clearly, Le Pen is loathsome and she is no EU fan, though she has publicly dropped her idea of taking France out of the EU. Even if that remains her stance, if she gets into power the EU is going to get an a­rse-kicking at a time when it will be even deeper into the s­hit.

I do not believe that she will win the election. The point is that the lower the margin of the Macron win the greater will be the reality that it is credible to have the opinion that the EU is not good for France. By the time of the election Le Pen may decide that it is once again her policy that France leaves the EU.

However, prior to that Macron will never be regarded as the most important leader in the EU. Whoever wins the German election in September will be the most important EU leader. So Macron can concentrate on his numerous problems in France and Germany can continue to be the only EU country with a pot to p­iss in.

[Psaw]

I dont know anything about French politics apart from its backwardness. You say Le Pen is loathsome, in what way? I would be a natural supporter of her. This is not a dig at you, but a genuine request for information.

[Dick Large]

She is the leader of the French equivalent of our late unlamented National Front. The way that the French presidential election works is that any d­ick can enter it and there are usually at least a dozen. If nobody exceeds 50% of the vote it goes to another, final, round consisting of the top 2 from the first round. Incredibly Le Pen has made the final round on at least the last two occasions.

So how has this happened? She is known to be a strong critic of the EU. Maybe the electorate thinks that it is more important to try to elect an anti-EU candidate rather than the more acceptable orthodox second party. The French Leave vote has only one option, to vote for Le Pen. So they are holding their noses and doing so, sufficiently to almost certainly get her into next May's play-off final and to get a credible percentage of the vote. It is virtually a certainty that she will not win, despite the total incompetence of Macron and the numerous problems that he has not solved. But the smaller the margin of victory for Macron the bigger the problems he will have. The EU is in turmoil now and by next May it will be worse, which will increase the Leave (Le Pen) vote. Before the last election she deleted her policy to Leave the EU but she is known to be at least a strong critic of it. Maybe she will resume her Leave policy if the EU is even deeper in the s­hit by next April's French presidential election first round.

[Psaw]

O dear. I didnt know that only two can stand for president. Not good is it.

[Dick Large]

No, that is not the case. Read the second sentence onwards of the post prior to your latest one. It is number #3.

[Psaw]

Okey doke.