Playoffs - The mini-league of 6 clubs playing for 5th, 6th and 7th

[Elite_Pie]

After today's games, this is the updated maximum points total each of the 6 clubs can achieve:

Notts 75
Wrexham 73
Halifax 71
Bromley 71
Chesterfield 71
Eastleigh 71

A good day, this now means that even if we lose a game we would still have the potential for more points than all but Wrexham. Oops, forgot about the late game.

The late game finished Torquay 0-0 Bromley, so those numbers still apply.

[uysapie]

The late game finished Torquay 0-0 Bromley, so those numbers still apply.

Bromley home and away are critical games

[magpie_mania]

After today's games, this is the updated maximum points total each of the 6 clubs can achieve:

Notts 75
Wrexham 73
Halifax 71
Bromley 71
Chesterfield 71
Eastleigh 71

A good day, this now means that even if we lose a game we would still have the potential for more points than all but Wrexham. Oops, forgot about the late game.

Have you knocked 3 off Wrexham and 6 off Bromley? If we win, they can't get them.

[countygump]

Have you knocked 3 off Wrexham and 6 off Bromley? If we win, they can't get them.

Not till after the matches have been played. Calculating it any other way than 'max points that can be gained', is just not poss.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

We are in 5th place based on PPG which is more reflective on our position due to uneven number of games played. Therefore it seems we need at least 8 points from the last five games to stand a chance of finishing 5th.

We have won two, drew two and lost once in the last five and have picked up 8 points. So a repeat of that might be enough .

The table below also shows predicted points based on PPG for the season so far for each top ten place.

1st Torquay = 1.97 (83 points)
2nd Sutton = 1.97 (83 points)
3rd Stockport = 1.87 (79 points)
4th Hartlepool = 1.80 (76 points)
5th Notts Co = 1.62 (68 points)
6th Wrexham = 1.61 (68 points)
7th Halifax = 1.59 (67 points)
8th Chesterfield = 1.55 (65 points)
9th Bromley = 1.55 (65 points)
10th Eastleigh = 1.51 (63 points)

The games against Wrexham and the two Bromley games are massive and will play a major part in determining whether we can finish 5th. We need to avoid defeat in any of those games and thus giving them three points on us.

[Notts78]

We are in 5th place based on PPG which is more reflective on our position due to uneven number of games played. Therefore it seems we need at least 8 points from the last five games to stand a chance of finishing 5th.

We have won two, drew two and lost once in the last five and have picked up 8 points. So a repeat of that might be enough .

The table below also shows predicted points based on PPG for the season so far for each top ten place.

1st Torquay = 1.97 (83 points)
2nd Sutton = 1.97 (83 points)
3rd Stockport = 1.87 (79 points)
4th Hartlepool = 1.80 (76 points)
5th Notts Co = 1.62 (68 points)
6th Wrexham = 1.61 (68 points)
7th Halifax = 1.59 (67 points)
8th Chesterfield = 1.55 (65 points)
9th Bromley = 1.55 (65 points)
10th Eastleigh = 1.51 (63 points)

The games against Wrexham and the two Bromley games are massive and will play a major part in determining whether we can finish 5th. We need to avoid defeat in any of those games and thus giving them three points on us.

I think those 3 games are more important than whether we get 5th or not. Those games will go along way to determining whether we make the playoffs. We also have Maidenhead in our next game who beat Pools with 10 men so I expect a real tough game, winning that game will give us a little bit of breathing space.

[1955pie]

After today's games, this is the updated maximum points total each of the 6 clubs can achieve:

Notts 75
Wrexham 73
Halifax 71
Bromley 71
Chesterfield 71
Eastleigh 71

A good day, this now means that even if we lose a game we would still have the potential for more points than all but Wrexham. Oops, forgot about the late game.

Nice little thread this.
We need 72 points to be mathematically certain of a play-of spot unless results go in our favour.
That's 4 wins out of 5. We would have to follow this up with 3 more consecutive wins in the play-offs.
So 7 wins out of the next 8 matches - (meaning we would have won 9 out of the last 10 games of the season).

I know being a Notts fan involves having incredible optimism whilst carrying that enormous weight of pessimism but if we were to pull this off from here, it would be one of our greatest achievements.

You Pies.

[dobbsad]

Nice little thread this.
We need 72 points to be mathematically certain of a play-of spot unless results go in our favour.
That's 4 wins out of 5. We would have to follow this up with 3 more consecutive wins in the play-offs.
So 7 wins out of the next 8 matches - (meaning we would have won 9 out of the last 10 games of the season).

I know being a Notts fan involves having incredible optimism whilst carrying that enormous weight of pessimism but if we were to pull this off from here, it would be one of our greatest achievements.

You Pies.

Not quite true to say we need 72 points to be “mathematically certain” , any draw against Wrexham or Bromley, not only reduces our maximum by 2 points, but their’s as well. Add to that, that Chesterfield meet Halifax on the last day of the season means that only one of those two clubs has a Max of 71. It’s either (71, 68) or (69, 69)

[Chicken Balti Pie]

Not quite true to say we need 72 points to be “mathematically certain” , any draw against Wrexham or Bromley, not only reduces our maximum by 2 points, but their’s as well. Add to that, that Chesterfield meet Halifax on the last day of the season means that only one of those two clubs has a Max of 71. It’s either (71, 68) or (69, 69)

Double 69... Nice!

On a more football note, we are playing teams in and around the playoffs, we need to be setting a marker down and it will breed confidence, a win tomorrow will make others take note, give us confidence and could spark our season into life. If I remember correctly, it was against Maidenhead when we should have called the game off because we had a bunch of Covid cases right, probably when the wheels started to fall off!

[MancMagpie]

It's worth keeping an eye on Maidenhead and Daggers in this 'mini group'. Daggers have won their last 5 games and on a crazily good run. Maidenhead can sneak in to play offs too. Will be a very difficult game tomorrow night.