Millers history shows it would be lunacy to dismiss Paul Warne

[vaterland_miller]

I have done a little research to compare the promotion records of all the Millers managers for the period I have been supporting the club (i.e. from 1967). I used the following web sites:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...d_F.C._seasons
https://www.soccerbase.com/teams/tea...mTabs=managers

There are 30 managers listed but the list is missing a few "acting-managers" (especially during relegations after sackings) so perhaps 30 is an under-estimate.

My quick analysis shows that, out of those 30 managers (over the last 54 years) only the following 7 managers have achieved even a single promotion.

Phil Henson, Billy McEwan and Jimmy McGuigan each achieved one promotion from the 4th tier to the 3rd tier (Billy McEwan won the 4th Division Championship).

Ian Porterfield achieved one promotion from the 3rd tier to the 2nd tier (he won the 3rd Division Championship in doing so).

Ronnie Moore and Steve Evans each achieved two promotions - one each from the 4th tier to the 3rd tier and one each from the 3rd tier to the 2nd tier.

Only Paul Warne has achieved two promotions from the 3rd tier to the 2nd tier. And what is even more extraordinary is that he has never failed to win a promotion from the 3rd tier to the 2nd tier.

Only 2 out of 30 managers have ever won a championship in the entire 54 years.

Younger Millers need to understand that the majority of those 30 managers will have been seen by many of the Millers fans at the time they were appointed as being the solution to problems caused by the previous incumbent. However, 22 of them never achieved a promotion and 7 of the ones who didn't win a promotion were in charge when we were relegated.

It is easy to see from the records that replacing a manager is a lottery. There is no guarantee of success and promotion is a relatively rare commodity - just 10 promotions in 54 years (5 from 3rd tier to 2nd tier and 5 from 4th tier to 3rd tier).

Paul Warne has achieved 20% of all the promotions in the last 54 years and he has achieved 40% of the promotions from 3rd to 2nd tier over that same period. He has achieved that over a period of only 4.5 years. It would be complete lunacy to dismiss him. We should be thanking our lucky starts that we have him and that he is so fond of our club.

[CAMiller]

Great analysis. Also, I make it 6/10 promotions from managers who had a Rotherham connection so the balance is slightly tipped towards us doing better when we utilise ex-players. Outside promotions, I think we've also seen more longevity of tenure from 'old boys' but that might be because they get more leeway.

[clarkey1974]

I don’t discount any of your findings,and taking the time to do so.and it may be a little bit eggy of me to make this point,but you could argue those other managers didn’t need the the second promotion as they didn’t get relegated in the first place…

[vaterland_miller]

Great analysis. Also, I make it 6/10 promotions from managers who had a Rotherham connection so the balance is slightly tipped towards us doing better when we utilise ex-players. Outside promotions, I think we've also seen more longevity of tenure from 'old boys' but that might be because they get more leeway.

A very good point CAMiller

[CAMiller]

I don’t discount any of your findings,and taking the time to do so.and it may be a little bit eggy of me to make this point,but you could argue those other managers didn’t need the the second promotion as they didn’t get relegated in the first place…

The opposing argument, I can't remember a single occasion in this timeline where we were relegated, sacked the manager and bounced back immediately.

[Nardendee]

Paul must not leave and he must be backed in the transfer market.

[Brin]

I don’t discount any of your findings,and taking the time to do so.and it may be a little bit eggy of me to make this point,but you could argue those other managers didn’t need the the second promotion as they didn’t get relegated in the first place…

clarkey you beat me to it, they kept us up where as Warne has taken us straight back down! Having said that, I personally want Warne at the helm at the start of next season but and it's a big but, if we retain the majority of the current team and aren't showing any progress come Xmas then his position needs reviewing asap.

[MillersTime]

I'm now firmly in the PW to stay camp, as long as he still believes in himself and the project. He needs to develop and do some things better, as do all the staff, players and board. They'll never be perfect however but we could do a lot worse. I sincerely hope that he gets the correct backing in the transfer market that his pedigree in this division deserves. We need to do better and we can. UTM!

[gm_gm]

Warney nearly got it right, and with a bit of good luck we would have survived.

I also think he’s learnt harsh lessons for next time

[vaterland_miller]

I don’t discount any of your findings,and taking the time to do so.and it may be a little bit eggy of me to make this point,but you could argue those other managers didn’t need the the second promotion as they didn’t get relegated in the first place…

Other than Paul Warne, only Billy McEwan has managed the club through both promotion and relegation - in both cases between 3rd and 4th tier.

It looks like all the promotion managers either left for a "better" job (Ian Porterfield and Steve Evans) or left (either voluntarily or otherwise) before we were relegated. That fact, in itself, says something about Paul Warne.