https://www.theguardian.com/theobser...ronavirus-wave

"The Sage modelling sub-group notes: “All results are highly sensitive to the modelling assumptions, and extensive sensitivity analyses have been performed.” We can be certain of an exit wave, but not about its scale and duration."

Oh dear, this was published on July 17th, cases in Scotland had been falling for almost three weeks, but the Grauniad's two scientists don't seem to have noticed, far too busy working on their computer models to notice what was happening right under their noses in the real world I expect.