2021-22 League 1 - Who will finish where competition.

[CAMiller]

Very interesting, CAM, thanks.

Couple of observations:

Lol’s best score of 120 represents an average error of 5 places per team; pip’s worst score is effectively 6.7 places per team. Measured that way the the range of scores is really quite narrow across all the players.

There is perhaps an argument for having a second competition for the latter half of the season based on what is known after about 23 games. Obviously the level of accuracy is almost certainly going to be much greater and the decisions made much more nuanced.

Yes CT, the variance between 1st and last is relatively small when spread across 24 teams. I took a look and over the latter half of last season there were some players whose scores improved/regressed by >25 points and some that hardly changed at all. That would indicate that the fat lady is nowhere near singing yet on the 2021-22 season unless of course she gets Covid .

I'm not sure a full 24 team prediction would sort out the wheat from the chaff if we did one for the 2nd half but maybe a simple side prediction as to which team will progress and which team will regress the most over those last 23 games?

[CTMilller]

Yes, I think that would be an interesting challenge.

[CAMiller]

So as we've now played 23 games I'm determining that we are half way through the season (although thanks to Covid some teams haven't quite reached that point). If the season was to end with everyone in the same position they are today this is how the scoring would look - remember the lower the score the better as it indicates how far off your predictions were from reality. Lolmorgan has a slender lead but all to play for with 23ish games left.

[CAMiller]

Yes, I think that would be an interesting challenge.

Link to mid season competition thread.

https://boards.footymad.net/showthread.php?t=38284613

[CAMiller]

Roughly 2/3 of the way through the season and Lol's still in charge but his bum might be squeaking

[CAMiller]

Looks like Cayton might have this in the bag with just 5 games left.

[caytonmiller]

Not what I want to hear

[CAMiller]

Here's how the general consensus of the 20 Millers who played this competition had League 1 finishing. Looks like they might have been right about ourselves but badly wrong about MK Dons, Plymouth, Ipswich, Charlton and Doncaster.

1. Ipswich
2. Sunderland
3. Charlton
4. Sheffield Wednesday
5. Rotherham
6. Portsmouth
7. Wigan
8. Wycombe
9. Lincoln
10. Oxford
11. Bolton
12. Doncaster
13. Gillingham
14. Fleetwood
15. MK Dons
16. Plymouth
17. Burton
18. Crewe
19. Accrington
20. Shrewsbury
21. AFC Wimbledon
22. Cambridge
23. Cheltenham
24. Morecambe

[Brin]

CAM, let's have another update pal.

[CAMiller]

Here's how it currently stands. Swung back in Lol's favour.