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Thread: The Rams Survive - the stats confirm it

  1. #21
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
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    The bottom 5 based on current points won extrapolated over the season is .....

    20. Peterborough 46
    21. Derby 56 -12 = 44
    22. Cardiff 36
    23. Hull 30
    24. Barnsley 26

    Get docked another 9 and we struggle.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
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    19,996
    Quote Originally Posted by MadAmster View Post
    The bottom 5 based on current points won extrapolated over the season is .....

    20. Peterborough 46
    21. Derby 56 -12 = 44
    22. Cardiff 36
    23. Hull 30
    24. Barnsley 26

    Get docked another 9 and we struggle.
    Unless we can string together some wins we are doomed!

  3. #23
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    Jun 2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    There’s lies, damned lies and statistics. But after a business lifetime taking on The Man using stats to support my position, IMO they tell the truth more than they deceive.

    I’ll be recasting this after every ‘round’ of games whether you like it or not and yes it will ebb and flow through the season but to put my money where my mouth is I’ll slip into honest Joes on Monday and pop a tenner on it
    Are we to assume that the absence of any ‘recasting’ since October 24th means you’ve ‘recast’ your view on statistics ‘telling the truth’ and reclaimed your tenner?

  4. #24
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    Sep 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    Are we to assume that the absence of any ‘recasting’ since October 24th means you’ve ‘recast’ your view on statistics ‘telling the truth’ and reclaimed your tenner?
    Stats ALWAYS tell the truth, I've been busy

  5. #25
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    Sep 2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    Stats ALWAYS tell the truth
    .... but less so than lies and damned lies

  6. #26
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    Jun 2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    Stats ALWAYS tell the truth, I've been busy
    Well...aside from such factors as faulty polling, flawed correlations, selective bias, unsuitably small sample size and misleading data visualisation...you might be right.
    Be interesting to see how your ‘stats’ based forecast of 2nd October holds up. Much as I’d love it to...it’s not looking great at the moment.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
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    My computations are still looking good - based on every team's last SIX games form (and that includes our last loss) we survive (on the pitch) easily, finishing four****th. We also survive based on our form every week but one going right back to our first points being declared in admin

  8. #28
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    Sep 2011
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    Using simple extrapolation of PPG over a 46 game season, Reading will end with 40.48 points. Derby will have 40.92 and a better GD, Safe.

  9. #29
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    Jun 2016
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadAmster View Post
    Using simple extrapolation of PPG over a 46 game season, Reading will end with 40.48 points. Derby will have 40.92 and a better GD, Safe.
    ...and it would have some validity if this were a ‘level playing field’ of a season...but it isn’t and I fear the EFL will either see us lose the players the PPG extrapolation is based on, or dock us some more points.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
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    7,379
    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    ...and it would have some validity if this were a ‘level playing field’ of a season...but it isn’t and I fear the EFL will either see us lose the players the PPG extrapolation is based on, or dock us some more points.
    Rumoured Admin has accepted Thirty grand from Wigan for Shinnie, yes, 30 grand. Bloody ridiculous. 300K would be fine but 30K is a joke.

    Also rumoured Leeds and Toon plus others are looking at Knight for £8M. Cash flow problem solved, if true.

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