There’s lies, damned lies and statistics. But after a business lifetime taking on The Man using stats to support my position, IMO they tell the truth more than they deceive.

And so to The Rams and their chances of survival

Below is a forecast, based on results since Derby’s -12 pointer, of the end of season points total of the bottom 8, extrapolated over the rest of the season. For prudence I’ve reduced Derby’s outcome by a further 9 points to account for further EFL attempts to sink us.

And on that basis, we survive with no less than FIVE teams below us (but unfortunately Forest champions or more hopefully heading for a defeat in the playoffs)

I’ll be recasting this after every ‘round’ of games whether you like it or not and yes it will ebb and flow through the season but to put my money where my mouth is I’ll slip into honest Joes on Monday and pop a tenner on it

COYRS!

Derby: 1.75 per game = 61.25 points + 2 points = 63.25 points - 9 points = 54.25 points

Peterborough 1 point per game = 35 points + 8 points = 43 points

Barnsley .25 points per game = 8.75 points + 8 points = 16.75 points

Hull City 1 point per game = 35 points + 9 points = 44 points

Cardiff 0 points per game = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points

Swansea 1.25 points per game = 43.75 points + 11 points = 54.75 points

Preston .75 points = 26.25 points + 11 points = 37.25 points

Forest 2.25 points = 78.75 points +11 points = 89.75 points regrettably