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Thread: The Rams Survive - the stats confirm it

  1. #11
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    7,156
    As promised/threatened I am persiting with my stats based end of season planner, and on the basis of the past five games form, plus current points attained, minus the 9 points Derby expect to lose, and on that basis we survive.

    17th Swansea 1.2 points = 40.8 points + 12 points = 52.8 points
    18th Derby: 1.6 points = 54.4points +3 points -9 points = 48.4 points
    19th Preston .8 points = 27.2 points + 12 points = 39.2 points
    20th Hull City 0.8 points = 27.2 points + 9 points = 36.2 points
    21st Peterborough 0.8 points = 27.2 points + 8 points = 35.2 points
    22nd Birmingham .2 points = 6.8 points +12 points =18.8 points
    23rd Barnsley 0.2 points = 6.8 points + 8 points = 14.8 points
    24th Cardiff 0 points = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points

    World logistics are a disaster, get your order of bunting in early

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    20,608
    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    As promised/threatened I am persiting with my stats based end of season planner, and on the basis of the past five games form, plus current points attained, minus the 9 points Derby expect to lose, and on that basis we survive.

    17th Swansea 1.2 points = 40.8 points + 12 points = 52.8 points
    18th Derby: 1.6 points = 54.4points +3 points -9 points = 48.4 points
    19th Preston .8 points = 27.2 points + 12 points = 39.2 points
    20th Hull City 0.8 points = 27.2 points + 9 points = 36.2 points
    21st Peterborough 0.8 points = 27.2 points + 8 points = 35.2 points
    22nd Birmingham .2 points = 6.8 points +12 points =18.8 points
    23rd Barnsley 0.2 points = 6.8 points + 8 points = 14.8 points
    24th Cardiff 0 points = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points

    World logistics are a disaster, get your order of bunting in early
    Wow, by that analogy, NFFC will piss the league. thanks.


  3. #13
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    7,156
    Quote Originally Posted by Trickytreesreds View Post
    Wow, by that analogy, NFFC will piss the league. thanks.

    Yes, you are the form team, I didn’t even include you this time round because you aren’t relevant to us
    Last edited by Andy_Faber; 17-10-2021 at 08:54 AM.

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Sep 2011
    Posts
    7,376
    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    Yes, you are the form team, I didn’t even include you this time round because you aren’t relevant to us
    Have they ever been?

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Posts
    20,608
    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    Yes, you are the form team, I didn’t even include you this time round because you aren’t relevant to us
    I never mentioned the gap,

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    7,156
    Quote Originally Posted by Trickytreesreds View Post
    I never mentioned the gap,
    Just looking forward to 22/7/2020 Pt2 later in the season, we gave you a 12 point head start you should repay us with another lol like that

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    7,156
    Time to update the season end projection based on the form in the last five games

    15th Sheff Utd 1.2 points = 39.6 points + 15 points = 54.6 points
    16th Preston 1.2 points = 39.6 points + 15 points = 54.6 points
    17th Swansea 1.2 points = 40.8 points + 12 points = 52.8 points
    18th Bristol City .8 points = 26.4 points +16 points = 42.4 points
    19th Peterborough .8 points = 26.4 points + 11 points = 37.4 points
    20th Derby: 1.2 points = 40.8 points + 4 points -9 points = 35.8 points
    21st Hull .8 points = 26.4 points +9 points = 35.4 points
    22nd Birmingham .4 points = 13.2 points +13 points = 26.2 points
    23rd Cardiff 0 points = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points
    24th Barnsley 0 points = 0 points + 8 points = 8 points

    So Derby move down two places but still escape relegation. A win last night would have seen us even more comfortable - roll on doing the sky Blues on Sat

  8. #18
    Join Date
    Aug 2021
    Posts
    770
    I fancy us to survive, we just need to keep up the battle. Curiously, I worry that a takeover, whilst a positive, might make people nervous and spur a bad run, but I think we'll be close.

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Posts
    2,999
    I agree Ramshank but with more sanctions likely and the Mafioso looking for every opportunity to chuck a few hand grenades in our direction we will have to dig a few trenches. Turning these draws into wins is imperative because there's always a bad run lurking!

  10. #20
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Posts
    7,156
    Derbys survivability calculated after 14 games, based on last five games form

    17th Peterborough 1.4 points = 44.8 points + 14 points = 58.8 points
    18th Preston 1.0 points = 32 points + 15 points = 47 points
    19th Birmingham .8 points = 25.6 points +16 points = 41.6 points
    20th Derby: 1.4 points = 44.8 points + 5 points -9 points = 40.8 points
    21st Bristol City .6 points = 19.2 points +16 points = 35.2points
    22nd Hull .8 points = 25.6 points +9 points = 34.6 points
    23rd Cardiff 0 points = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points
    24th Barnsley 0 points = 0 points + 8 points = 8 points

    COYR!

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