Originally Posted by
KerrAvon
The logic is this.
Unless you are a germ theory denier (and I wouldn't put it past you), Covid can only spread within a population through a person coming into contact with the virus that has been shed by an infected person.
Taking steps to reduce contact between people (by encouraging them to work at home and - under the extreme lockdown conditions of the 1st wave- ordering schools, pubs and restaurants to close) will necessarilly reduce transmission.
Taking steps to reduce the risk of transmission when people do come into contact (by mask wearing, ventilation and - under the extreme conditions of the earlier waves - imposing social distancing) will necessarilly reduce transmission.
If you or gm can come up with any serious argument with the above (and by that I don't mean something written by a nutter on Twitter) then by all means let me know.
In respect of the newspaper article itself, I would firstly want to read the article itself (because front pages are designed to sell newspapers whilst the boring stuff is put in a smaller font size inside). I'd be interested to know what conclusion it reached. I'd then want to check the factual basis of the article (because print journalists have about as much knowledge of statitics and how to read them as most of do about quantum mechanics).
If I was satsfied that the statistical basis of the article held up, I would want to look at the dynamics within Scotland at the time - they have different schooling patterns and possibly a different level of compliance with directives for example.
What I wouldn't do is put the front page of the newspaper in a thread and believe that it established anything at all.