O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[jackal2]

I mean it's correct in the sense that Putin's invasion of Ukraine has almost certainly brought NATO right up to his borders.

Otherwise I don't find that credible. If Putin was actually worried about NATO he would still have at least semi-credible defenses on his borders with Europe, and he certainly wouldn't have been willing to deplete Russia's combat power to the extent that he has in futile ground operations in Ukraine.

I'm sure Putin is worried about the expansion of NATO, and the official line (as per Macron's statement) is that it's about the military threat, but the underlying and far more credible concern in the mind of Putin and his key allies is probably the political/symbolic threat of the Eastwards march of Western ideology, especially into former Soviet states, which hits at the heart of Putin's pyschology and may explain his comparative recklessness in recent times, coupled with any illness he may have.

[Old_pie]

French President Emmanuel Macron: "One of the essential points we must address - as President Putin has always said - is the fear that NATO comes right up to its doors, and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia".

I don't always agree with Macron (to say the least!) but he's right about this. As Sachs says in the interview above: "Much of this war has been about NATO enlargement from the beginning".

In no way does that mean Putin's actions in the Ukraine are justified or strategically intelligent. On the contrary, having once been a very astute player of the international political game, Putin has made a huge mistake invading Ukraine, handing a massive PR and strategic advantage to the NATO and the West, and putting ally China in a position they didn't need.

Whilst I am by no means the expert that our Canadian friend is on these matters I can only see the NATO argument as a red herring. NATO countries do not need to border Russia to be a threat whereas Russia is a threat to those countries on its borders. So what Putin seems to be saying is that if NATO continues to accept new members around the Russian borders (note Andy - they have to apply) then Putin loses his ability to recreate the Soviet Union. Additionally of course neutral (or semi-neutral) countries such as Finland and Sweden now wish to have guaranteed protection against a country which is prepared to unilaterally attack and attempt to invade another UN recognised country.

[Jampie]

I'm sure Putin is worried about the expansion of NATO, and the official line (as per Macron's statement) is that it's about the military threat, but the underlying and far more credible concern in the mind of Putin and his key allies is probably the political/symbolic threat of the Eastwards march of Western ideology, especially into former Soviet states, which hits at the heart of Putin's pyschology and may explain his comparative recklessness in recent times, coupled with any illness he may have.

Yeah sure, he feels threatened by western ideology. I am sure NATO's in his thoughts etc, but obviously this stuff is constantly framed as a "reason"/excuse for the attack on Ukraine.

And whatever the actual reasons for attacking Ukraine, NATO is at best a red herring.

I feel like his real reasons had very little to do with "NATO", although definitely competition with the west was on the list. This was largely about cementing his legacy as Russia's great post-USSR strong man. You could also make an argument for strategic military expansionism but I'm a bit dubious about that. From '91 onwards Russia was in a singularly excellent position to make it as a resource superpower, using the huge profits from that to diversify its economy and build out high technology industries.

Putin has unquestionably squandered that opportunity throughout his reign, leaning too much into corruption and in "competition" (wasted resources) with the west, although he was hardly handed an "easy mode" game by his predecessors.

Attacking Ukraine was a very high risk proposition and it's spectacularly backfired. I can only assume he really did have intel indicating a short war (like literally weeks, that's all they seem to have planned on) would have ended with Russia in a position to annex the entire country. And essentially since they gave up on that idea (about April 17th if I recall) they haven't actually HAD a clear objective in Ukraine.

From the moment the invasion failed to defeat Ukraine he seems to have just been flailing about trying to find a way out that doesn't look like the truth: That he just wasted more than half of Russia's ground combat power on a failed campaign that's already triggered massive NATO expansion, weakened Russia immeasurably both globally and domestically (with long term effects slowly beginning to bite both now), and failed to achieve any of its supposed objectives.

Right now he seems willing to pay any price in blood and equipment to seize the remaining bits of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and then hold onto them with his fingernails. Assuming he can pull that off (looks unlikely right now) I doubt it'll be sufficient for him to want to end the war. So as strategic objectives, they're pretty terrible.

[andy6025]

Aaron Maté interviews Nicolai Petrov, professor of political science at the University of Rhode Island, and former US State Dept.’s special assistant for policy on the Soviet Union under President George HW Bush:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5cTxXQsfXkU

“History Legends” YouTube channel attempts to provide an analysis of casualty figures in the conflict:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Bfj2c5racUY&t=1315s

[Jampie]

Let me guess, it's all the west+Ukraine's fault russia invaded and ukrainians are inflating russian casualties who, despite losing ground continuously since march while repeatedly attacking prepared defences (like idiots) have actually taken light casualties?

[andy6025]

Let me guess, it's all the west+Ukraine's fault russia invaded and ukrainians are inflating russian casualties who, despite losing ground continuously since march while repeatedly attacking prepared defences (like idiots) have actually taken light casualties?

Not at all! He says that the Russians have been sending wave upon wave of untrained and unarmed troops into battle against the valiant Ukrainian defenders who weep as they mow the hapless Russians down. Given that there’s only one rifle for every 3 Russian soldiers, they have to wait to pick up the rifle of their fallen comrade. The only thing keeping the Russians going are stolen washing machines, anti-retreat forces that shoot deserters and the fact that they’re all souped up on viagra.

Honest injun!

[BanjoPie]

Not at all! He says that the Russians have been sending wave upon wave of untrained and unarmed troops into battle against the valiant Ukrainian defenders who weep as they mow the hapless Russians down. Given that there’s only one rifle for every 3 Russian soldiers, they have to wait to pick up the rifle of their fallen comrade. The only thing keeping the Russians going are stolen washing machines, anti-retreat forces that shoot deserters and the fact that they’re all souped up on viagra.

Honest injun!

“You need to get yourself off the coke old chap”

[keldsyke]

Not at all! He says that the Russians have been sending wave upon wave of untrained and unarmed troops into battle against the valiant Ukrainian defenders who weep as they mow the hapless Russians down. Given that there’s only one rifle for every 3 Russian soldiers, they have to wait to pick up the rifle of their fallen comrade. The only thing keeping the Russians going are stolen washing machines, anti-retreat forces that shoot deserters and the fact that they’re all souped up on viagra.

Honest injun!

Can I ask (politely) what makes your allegence to Notts? Born here, watched games then went away or just liked the kit from afar? (Genuinely interested)

[andy6025]

Can I ask (politely) what makes your allegence to Notts? Born here, watched games then went away or just liked the kit from afar? (Genuinely interested)

I used to live in the Uk and have family that live there now. Never got all that interested in the Premier League. Started following Notts in the Munto season. I catch a few games whenever I go over every couple of years, otherwise I’m listening in on Saturday mornings will I do myself a fry up.

Bought myself a fridge magnet from the club shop.

Edit: also got myself a tea towel but it can’t mop up for shît... just swishes it around, so I don’t think that counts.

[Jampie]

Edit: also got myself a tea towel but it can’t mop up for shît... just swishes it around, so I don’t think that counts.

Sounds like a legit metaphor for our defense most seasons, sounds legit to me.