Sadly think that the war will continue for some time yet. The inevitable fall of Mariupol will have boosted Putin whose claims of "liberation" and "victory" will no doubt go down well with many of the Russian population eager for some "good" news at last since the invasion begun. Whatever the failings of the "special operation" Russia has made significant advances into eastern and southern Ukraine and created a land bridge to Crimea. Don't doubt the continued resistance from Ukraine but there needs to be some urgency now in getting all those promised higher capability weapons to them so that they can push back.

Ultimately, I can still see the more easterly and predominantly pro-Russian areas of Ukraine separating but the sovereignty of the rest of the country needs to be restored and the quicker that Putin can be seen to fail in his objectives the better for all.