Who thinks we are definitely not getting promoted already!!?

[ncfcog]

Our poor results have come when we’ve not been at full strength at the back.

Also, where Patterson made a difference in goal and quite rightly kept Slocombe out, Jaros hasn’t and is again what I think is a contributing factor to a few of those recent poor results.

Slocombe looked extremely comfortable yesterday and also played much higher up the pitch than he used to which is one of things that he seemed to struggle with before. I think there’s a chance Jaros will play at Maidenhead but Sam surely has to be the No1 in the play-offs.

[Magpies1959]

People should feel free to parade naked around Meadow Lane as it is legal to naked in public. One proviso for all the blokes out there is to check there is a suitable temperature forecast 🤣

[jacobncfc]

Not necessarily, but the vast majority of clubs, fans, pundits will see Wrexham as worth avoiding.
Halifax are a scrappy team but Wrexham might blow you away at the Racecourse...the goal difference of Wrexham +45, Halifax + 29 tells you something and I wonder what the table for, say, the last 30 games looks like.

Back to the 6th v 7th question, drawing against Boreham Wood might suit Grimsby best - guarantees their spot while giving them the option to tuck in behind Chesterfield on the last day to slot into the easier half of the draw.

Yeah I would rather go to Halifax too, but it’s a feeling rather than something necessarily backed up by the stats.

Actually watching Wrexham vs Stockport now and there’s been enough both to see some positives going there and suggest why we’d be worried about it. Stockport played them off the park first half an hour and should’ve been 2 or 3-0 up, but have since been blown away mostly by set pieces.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

We have to be confident. There is nobody to fear at this level and on our day we are as good a match for anyone.

One of Stockport or Wrexham is going to be deflated after battling it out for the title. Whichever one of those does not go up automatically will be favourites to go up via the play-offs. All the pressure will be on them whether it be Stockport or Wrexham. The question is will they have enough energy left to finish the job or fall at the last hurdle?

We are currently 9 points behind the current leaders which is Wrexham if they can see their game out against Stockport. We all know we dropped 3 points away against Halifax in the last five minutes, and with a bit more we could have picked up two more away wins to the lesser sides. The margins are very fine at this level.

We've scored 80 goals this season. That's 1.86 goals a game which is considerably more than the previous two seasons at this level. It's the most goals scored in a season since the Munto season when we scored 91 goals. The closest we have got since the Munto season was the Keith Curle 11/12 season where we finished 7th in league one and scored 75 goals.

We've been a bit more Moniz-esq defensively this season having conceded more than any other season at this level.

So we could have some quite open games in the play-offs like the 3-3 draw away against Solihull which will not be for the feint hearted.

What's gone before, or league position will not matter. It's what happens on the day and anything is possible.

[drillerpie]

We have to be confident. There is nobody to fear at this level and on our day we are as good a match for anyone.

One of Stockport or Wrexham is going to be deflated after battling it out for the title. Whichever one of those does not go up automatically will be favourites to go up via the play-offs. All the pressure will be on them whether it be Stockport or Wrexham. The question is will they have enough energy left to finish the job or fall at the last hurdle?

We are currently 9 points behind the current leaders which is Wrexham if they can see their game out against Stockport. We all know we dropped 3 points away against Halifax in the last five minutes, and with a bit more we could have picked up two more away wins to the lesser sides. The margins are very fine at this level.

We've scored 80 goals this season. That's 1.86 goals a game which is considerably more than the previous two seasons at this level. It's the most goals scored in a season since the Munto season when we scored 91 goals. The closest we have got since the Munto season was the Keith Curle 11/12 season where we finished 7th in league one and scored 75 goals.

We've been a bit more Moniz-esq defensively this season having conceded more than any other season at this level.

So we could have some quite open games in the play-offs like the 3-3 draw away against Solihull which will not be for the feint hearted.

What's gone before, or league position will not matter. It's what happens on the day and anything is possible.

I agree that we can beat anyone on our day.

The worry is that we could also go into late-stage-Wenger's-Arsenal mode at any time and suddenly be out the tie very quickly.

I think whoever we play, the key will be taking any chances we get at 0-0.

[applepie2]

To point out the obvious, five out of six teams in the playoffs will be in the National League next season, and only one will be in the Fourth Division. So we’re more likely not to be promoted.

How many teams have beaten us twice this season, though? Of course we have a chance.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

I agree that we can beat anyone on our day.

The worry is that we could also go into late-stage-Wenger's-Arsenal mode at any time and suddenly be out the tie very quickly.

I think whoever we play, the key will be taking any chances we get at 0-0.

It seems that has been the case in the Wrexham and Stockport game today. I'd also like to the think the experience of the home game against Cheaterfurlough last year and Torquay away will mean there will be the experience and lessons will have been learned from Torquay away.

I'm expecting us to be the best footballing side in the play-off games we play, but as you say the key will be to take our chances and hopefully we can carve out some early chances. We don't want to be chasing any of these games. Although sometimes going a goal behind does kick us on.

My thoughts are that these play-off games will be like the early rounds of a boxing match with the first half being quite close and could be like a chess match as we've seen when Stockport played us at home last season in a league game, but then in the second half each team will have to be a bit brave and look for those openings.

We were solid at the back in season one with Rawlinson and Lacey at centre back, so this season we have Cameron and I think he will be key for us, and let's remember he played for Torquay last season so he has the experience.

The spine of the team as in Slocombe, Lacey, Cameron, Palmer, Rodrigues, Roberts and Wootton will need to rise for the occasion. If all those can relish and enjoy it and give their all then we stand as good a chance as anyone.

A home quarter final with our fantastic 6,500 (what a good improvement in regular attendance from our 5,000) behind them really can be the 12th man.

[the_anticlough]

Good post MM

I think the board's got a better hang of the situation this year. There's been a bit less talk of 'getting in the play-offs' 'make the play-offs' and more understanding that finishing position is key.

If you don't make top 3 the best way to make sense of the chances I think is to imagine you have to flip a coin for your life - heads or tails.
Doing this once is bad enough, but if you're a quarter-finalist you have to flip a coin for your life and win three times. Feeling lucky punk?

We can put faith in our star attacking players and try to forget about the defence, but in the NL format you're really facing a struggle getting promoted from 5th place. Having said that, the dream's alive and there's a chance.

[BigFatPie]

If we do get Grimsby/Chesterfield at home it might be wise to limit the number of tickets we give them.

A smallish financial hit could be worth a bit of an advantage on the pitch.

[Mark_Ross]

Constantly predicting failure is the easiest thing in the world to do, it’s quite literally a win, win. “I told you so” if we fail, “Glad to be proved wrong” if we succeed.

Your analysis is quite correct. However, it ignores the relative possibility of success versus failure. In the playoffs I'd rate our chance of promotion at about 20%, and I try to be honest regardless of my emotional bias. Therefore have to be pessimistic going into the playoffs.