February fixtures

[MAD_MAGPIE]

I'll go for an optimistic 14 out of 18 pts, 8 would be fatal in the hunt for top spot.

14 points keeps us inline with the 2.3 PPG we have averaged so far over the season and also Wrexham's 2.4 PPG. In a normal season 2PPG is normally enough so 12 points would suffice but this is not normal and there is only one automatic place up for grabs.

If we can come out of February on 82 points then regardless of what Wrexham do we will be on course.

We've got to win four of the six games this month as a bare minimum the way I see it. If we can remain unbeaten and win four and draw two games then 14 points target achieved.

On paper the toughest games are Chesterfield away and I'm expecting Barnet to give us a game at home as 3rd place is between Barnet, Chesterfield and Woking at the moment. We can't be complacent against Southend either as we drew with them at their place and they could still make the playoffs. Likewise Torquay and Yeovil away and Dagenham at home have banana skin written all over them with Dagenham chasing a playoff spot as well.

This month is going to be a big test for many teams fitness along with the added risk of injuries and suspensions. Hopefully we can come out of it intact with the points required.

[magpie_mania]

Very true, Barnet and Southend at home have draw written all over them. I'm hopeful of a point at Chesterfield but Wrexhams pitch is dreadful so our passing game will be a problem against their hoof it tactics so a loss likely there.

Not sure why they are going to be draws. I am not sure they will be parking the bus so will hopefully be more open. We beat Wrexham at home, why not these two?

[1955pie]

14 points keeps us inline with the 2.3 PPG we have averaged so far over the season and also Wrexham's 2.4 PPG. In a normal season 2PPG is normally enough so 12 points would suffice but this is not normal and there is only one automatic place up for grabs.

If we can come out of February on 82 points then regardless of what Wrexham do we will be on course.

How many points do we need to guarantee a play off spot?

[OP67]

Not sure why they are going to be draws. I am not sure they will be parking the bus so will hopefully be more open. We beat Wrexham at home, why not these two?

Because we don't seem to have the same intesity that we had before the turn of the year. We're still winning games but not as convincing as before. Hopefully we can regain that killer instinct we had when we were taking 2 or 3 goal leads in games, especially first halves. Just how I see it.

[MAD_MAGPIE]

How many points do we need to guarantee a play off spot?

Based on the past eight seasons then 75 points. So 7 points to go.

75 points is an average of 1.63 PPG based on the team finishing 7th. However this season the team in 7th place Boreham Wood only have 1.5 PPG which is only 68 points. This is low because there is a ten point gap between 5th and 6th. Plus it’s so tight with there only being 3 points separating 7th and 13th place.

Because of this we are about there now but it’s a bit risky relying on 20 wins. It ideally needs to be 22/23 wins to be certain. With three games in the next ten days we could all but guarantee a playoff place after the Barnet game at home. If we do hit 75 points by then it still won’t be mathematically secured as that will take some time but that would just be a formality.

[OP67]

I see Altrincham have brought in 8 new players this week, some sound half decent as well. Todays game against Wrexham is at Alty as well so fingers crossed.