How many points to stop up ?

[jockey]

The current Championship league table is looking extremely compressed at the moment. Usually our total points to date of 25 points from 20 games would leave us to well placed to escape the drop. However we are only 5 points above the bottom three (or if your glass is half full - 6 points off the play-offs). Looking at the points total to survive in the Championship for the last 10 years :-

21/22 - 41 points - Reading
20/21 - 44 -Derby
19/20 - 49 Barnsley
18/19- 44 Millwall
17/18 - 43 Bolton
16/17 - 51 - Forest
15/16 - 49 - Rotherham
14/15 - 46 - Rotherham
13/14 - 44 -Birmingham
12/13 - 55 -Barnsley

Ten year average - 46.6

I would venture to suggest that this season it will requireat least 50 points and possibly like 2012/13 55 points.
If my theory is correct than we need another 30 points from the 26 remaining games to be 'guaranteed 'safety.
I think achieving this is dependent on keeping our best players in January and hoping to avoid major injuries to those same players. What do people think?

[Karl998yr]

I was thinking 50 but 52 to be on the safe side I reckon would be enough.
Also aren't there still one or 2 clubs staring down the barrel of a points deduction?

[CAMiller]

I think for once the 'mythical' 50 will be required for survival.

[Grist_To_The_Mill]

I think for once the 'mythical' 50 will be required for survival.

You may be right, but usually the league has a “ relegated by Christmas” team down at the bottom from an early stage. I can’t see one this season.

Plus of course points deductions could suddenly pop up.

[caytonmiller]

Play like we have the last 4 games and looking up will be the norm, not looking down

[caytonmiller]

To give it perspective.
4th down to 9th are getting point at a rate of 1.5-1.6 per game. If the millers scored a AVG of 1.8 per game to the end of season it could get us around the bottom end of the playoffs.
ATM were getting 1.25 per game and we all know the bad luck we have been having 😄

Glass half full boys n gals. Maybe we need a "we are going up" thread

[Ericsladkilnhurst]

Ask me after Easter games

[Brin]

I reckon with the Championship being so open this season, yes it's that crazy, I think it's going to have to be 54 points minimum to survive.

I said we'd finish 18th and I still stand by that as we have shown we can give it a go even with no recognised forward to crow about.

[Lolmorgan]

I think it will be who’s got the money in January to strengthen out of the bottom six.We will be the one with the least money.A bit of luck & good management will see us through.

[jakethemiller]

I reckon 50 points minimum we've had our best start for yonks in this division and can't create a big gap from the drop zone.