Frank's Reform UK Party has gone from 4% to 6.1% in the polls. I calculate that in the average constituency 1% is 504 votes so 6.1% would be 3,074 votes. Of course nearly all of that number of votes will come from people who normally vote Conservative. So that is very good indeed, the likes of Frank are helping to bring about a substantial Labour win.

The Electoral Calculus poll has Labour getting an overall majority of 168 and 240 more seats than the Conservatives.