In Defence of Possession

[ncfcog]

Luke Williams’ Notts County averaged the thick end of 70% possession on their way to promotion back to the EFL.

In this article we look at data from the 2022/23 National League season and ask the question “is there any correlation between possession and defensive resilience?”

https://www.analystsbar.com/post/in-...-of-possession

[Notts78]

Luke Williams’ Notts County averaged the thick end of 70% possession on their way to promotion back to the EFL.

In this article we look at data from the 2022/23 National League season and ask the question “is there any correlation between possession and defensive resilience?”

https://www.analystsbar.com/post/in-...-of-possession

Top work as always.

I flicked through so apologies if this bit is covered. It’s worth noting average position of players. I would hazard a not so wild guess that our players are on average further up the pitch. Hence high line, hence potential exposure to counter attacks as more players are committed. Any stats on this?

[ncfcog]

That’s a good point and I think I touch on it a bit in the article. One thing I’ll have access to next season is match by match team heatmaps so this will help provide some of the context you’re looking at.

[jackal2]

Very interesting analysis.

There have been several games this season where we've retained the ball so brilliantly, and won it back so high up the field if we lose it, that the opposition have barely troubled our goalkeeper, but it would seem that in those games against stronger opponents where we can't control the game quite as much and opponents do get close enough to have shots on our goal, we are quite vulnerable to conceding.

This tallies with the impression I've had of the team watching games subjectively and emotionally, rather than looking objectively at the data. Our record clearly shows that we've got a very good defensive record, but I actually don't think players like Kyle Cameron and Aden Baldwin are particularly good defenders. I think they're often slow to sense and react to danger. What they are - without a doubt - is very good footballers with more skill than you would normally expect from players in defensive positions at this level, so when it comes to not misplacing passes and having the skill to be able to take a risk and beat an opponent, their skillset is perfect for retaining possession and simply preventing the opponent from having enough of the ball to do damage.

As we progress to the higher level of League Two and hopefully beyond, we're obviously less likely to dominate the ball as much and have as many games going all our own way, which is why I think the recruitment during the summer needs to include a couple of 'proper' defenders who can cope in games where we come under pressure, especially away from home.

[ncfcog]

Agree with all of that. I have absolutely no reason to believe we won’t be an attacking threat again but our resilience at the back could be exposed if we don’t strengthen.

[BJPIE]

Very interesting analysis.

There have been several games this season where we've retained the ball so brilliantly, and won it back so high up the field if we lose it, that the opposition have barely troubled our goalkeeper, but it would seem that in those games against stronger opponents where we can't control the game quite as much and opponents do get close enough to have shots on our goal, we are quite vulnerable to conceding.

This tallies with the impression I've had of the team watching games subjectively and emotionally, rather than looking objectively at the data. Our record clearly shows that we've got a very good defensive record, but I actually don't think players like Kyle Cameron and Aden Baldwin are particularly good defenders. I think they're often slow to sense and react to danger. What they are - without a doubt - is very good footballers with more skill than you would normally expect from players in defensive positions at this level, so when it comes to not misplacing passes and having the skill to be able to take a risk and beat an opponent, their skillset is perfect for retaining possession and simply preventing the opponent from having enough of the ball to do damage.

As we progress to the higher level of League Two and hopefully beyond, we're obviously less likely to dominate the ball as much and have as many games going all our own way, which is why I think the recruitment during the summer needs to include a couple of 'proper' defenders who can cope in games where we come under pressure, especially away from home.

You put it so much better thanI could Jackal. I agree, but would just of said Baldwin and Camerons games are riddled with errors. Baldwin quick enough to recover, Cameron not so. Rawlinson makes less errors but possibly the slowest of the 3. We need significant reinforcement in defence.

[laddo]

Great post by Jackal
Agree we need reinforcements in central defence. However it's a balancing act, 'proper defenders ' can often be interpreted as nonsense kick it, head it, strong, but usually slow and limited on the ball , Mark Ellis being a good example in recent times for Notts. Yes we want less mistakes , more anticipation, putting defending first above everything else but too much/many proper defenders would potentially cause us all sorts of issues with our style of play assuming it will be very similar next season. You wouldn't want a defence of Rawlinson, Ellis, Strodder for example in our system and way of playing. Extreme example but hopefully get my point.

At NL and now L2 level all defenders have weaknesses the key I believe is getting a combination that hides them. Totally believe our 70% possession hid a lot of our defensive weaknesses as the number of goals conceded showed.

[1955pie]

Brilliant article.
Perhaps what we are all seem to be saying when we look at the goals conceded per shots faced, is that our defenders are not good enough or perhaps more accurately that they are not the right defenders for the system we play.
On the plus side with the signing of Will Randall who may well be our LWB it will free up Adam Chicksen to play in the back 3 if needed and TAR hopefully wii get more game time and he is definitely a better defender than Aaaron Nemane.

[TSANHO]

Yes, great post by Jackal. If we’re to stick with a back three then perhaps the CB should be more of a typical defender in the Turner or Rawlo mould, and the RCB and LCB be more of the Baldwin and Cameron types? Even better, get the radar to find people are fantastic at both! I’ve said it before but I think TAR may be an option at RCB at some point.

[the_anticlough]

I think all we need is a top signing for Right Back (now we're committed to the back three I'd like the nomenclature to shift to just RB, CB, LB and that's it). Rawlo could be understudy at CB and fight for his place mainly there and at RB if we're short

If you think of the Dobra goal...everyone would have been wanting Rawlo to show Dobra down the line. But he couldn't do that for fear of being skinned and how bad that would have looked. So Dobra was given more chance to come inside and that goal might have done for us. We need a great one-on-one defender with strength, pace and ball skills at RB to complement Cameron and Baldwin