Matchday Thread: Rams v Crewe

[swaledale]

We are just two sides of the same coin Swale, I really hope I'm on your side in due course

Your comment about Sibley is IMO correct, but I'd actually say he's the current Derby County crystalised into a single player

I don't disagree, most on here have been realistic in their views, some fans and especially some on social media have a rant and rave in extremis whenever we lose. I have a glass half full philosophy at the moment we are no worse than last season (cup games excepted) and arguably IF we get most players fit placed to do better.

As for why players are inconsistent, its perhaps worth remembering that they were acquired on free transfers for a league 1 team, if they consistently turned out stella performances they wouldn't be playing for Derby.

I'm not sure the sideways passing is lack of confidence, more a strategy to keep possession and find a way through teams, in view of the stats its not chance creation thats an issue as MA pointed out, its chance conversion, so we are down again to needing a ruthless striker and those cost money.

The other issue which Warne identified was pace, which ironically John-Jules was supposed to provide, if a player hasn't got the pace to beat a man, he is not going to try it unless its clear he has a good chance of doing so.

[swaledale]

For me that’s the situation in a nutshell and the further point is that it’s the players we signed in that ‘three week recruitment scramble’ that continue to form the backbone of this team.

I accept it’s all very well and good being wise after the event, but my concern is that January may see us selling the likes of Cashin and Sibley and replacing them, given all the evidence so far, with inferior signings.

So Nelson, Nyambe, haven't been key players in a defence that to date has conceded fewer goals than last season?

[ramAnag]

So Nelson, Nyambe, haven't been key players in a defence that to date has conceded fewer goals than last season?

Yes, of course they have and I don’t think anyone has denied that, but...they are only a small proportion of the match day squad/team...they represent a similarly small proportion of Warne’s signings over the last 15 months...and last season’s hastily assembled defence, which was made up largely of Wildsmith, Corey Smith, Forsyth, Cashin and Roberts/Sibley was the fourth best in an arguably stronger L1 over the whole season which we finished with a better defensive record than the eventual champions.

[swaledale]

Yes, of course they have and I don’t think anyone has denied that, but...they are only a small proportion of the match day squad/team...they represent a similarly small proportion of Warne’s signings over the last 15 months...and last season’s hastily assembled defence, which was made up largely of Wildsmith, Corey Smith, Forsyth, Cashin and Roberts/Sibley was the fourth best in an arguably stronger L1 over the whole season which we finished with a better defensive record than the eventual champions.

Well at the moment we are performing a little better than last season, as for whether the league was stronger last season, yes looking at the clubs, but then Ipswich who are now storming the championship, finished no higher than 9th in 3 seasons prior to promotion! A bigger club doesn't necessarily mean they have the better team.

Given league performance, we are arguably doing better, goal diff +13 instead of +7 with one less game suggests that and Warne has certainly replaced where he needed to, but in one window (last January Derby couldn't sign anybody other than loans/free transfers) with a slightly better budget its unrealistic to expect a team capable of smashing league 1 to be assembled.

[ramAnag]

Well at the moment we are performing a little better than last season, as for whether the league was stronger last season, yes looking at the clubs, but then Ipswich who are now storming the championship, finished no higher than 9th in 3 seasons prior to promotion! A bigger club doesn't necessarily mean they have the better team.

Given league performance, we are arguably doing better, goal diff +13 instead of +7 with one less game suggests that and Warne has certainly replaced where he needed to, but in one window (last January Derby couldn't sign anybody other than loans/free transfers) with a slightly better budget its unrealistic to expect a team capable of smashing league 1 to be assembled.

I don’t think anyone (on here) has suggested that Derby should be ‘smashing L1’ although it’s not unreasonable to expect better than we’ve produced against, without being disrespectful, the likes of Cheltenham, Shrewsbury and Crewe.

Warne himself is quoted as saying he misread the situation last January. He believed that he had enough, in terms of experience and fitness, to see us through an end of season push. He didn’t, he went for youth and inexperience instead and his signings added very little. It remains to be seen whether he’s learned from that. Imo we are still lacking in terms of leadership, fitness and physicality.

[swaledale]

I don’t think anyone (on here) has suggested that Derby should be ‘smashing L1’ although it’s not unreasonable to expect better than we’ve produced against, without being disrespectful, the likes of Cheltenham, Shrewsbury and Crewe.

Warne himself is quoted as saying he misread the situation last January. He believed that he had enough, in terms of experience and fitness, to see us through an end of season push. He didn’t, he went for youth and inexperience instead and his signings added very little. It remains to be seen whether he’s learned from that. Imo we are still lacking in terms of leadership, fitness and physicality.

Yes on paper we should indeed have beaten some of the lesser sides, but then a glance at the results in league 1 each week does show virtually any team is capable of beating another, with some rather unpredictable results. To thrash Posh away and Barnsley at home yet fail to win at the Shrews is puzzling, but then we are down to inconsistency again.

I didn't read Warne's comments as him misreading the situation, I thought he was saying he was restricted to what he could bring in and was admitting the loan signings didn't produce as he thought they would.

As I've pointed out, the fact is he didn't really have much choice last January, not being able to pay a fee, meant loans or persuading a club to let a player with 6 months left on their contract to go free. Now its fairly obvious that no club is going to let a player performing well go, so the only ones available would ones that have either been injured or who weren't getting a place in the team (generally because they aren't any good) or possibly a club needs to reduce its wage bill and is happy to let a player leave. That doesn't leave a big pool of even half decent players to acquire does it?

I'd agree, that the team could do with a player or two that can do the physical side of the game, we are a bit light weight in that regard. A clinical finisher would make a hell of a difference, if we'd taken just a quarter of the chances created this season, Derby would be top 3. Given we should be able to pay a fee in January, hopefully it will be possible to prise a couple of quality players away from other clubs.

[ramAnag]

Yes on paper we should indeed have beaten some of the lesser sides, but then a glance at the results in league 1 each week does show virtually any team is capable of beating another, with some rather unpredictable results. To thrash Posh away and Barnsley at home yet fail to win at the Shrews is puzzling, but then we are down to inconsistency again.

I didn't read Warne's comments as him misreading the situation, I thought he was saying he was restricted to what he could bring in and was admitting the loan signings didn't produce as he thought they would.

As I've pointed out, the fact is he didn't really have much choice last January, not being able to pay a fee, meant loans or persuading a club to let a player with 6 months left on their contract to go free. Now its fairly obvious that no club is going to let a player performing well go, so the only ones available would ones that have either been injured or who weren't getting a place in the team (generally because they aren't any good) or possibly a club needs to reduce its wage bill and is happy to let a player leave. That doesn't leave a big pool of even half decent players to acquire does it?

I'd agree, that the team could do with a player or two that can do the physical side of the game, we are a bit light weight in that regard. A clinical finisher would make a hell of a difference, if we'd taken just a quarter of the chances created this season, Derby would be top 3. Given we should be able to pay a fee in January, hopefully it will be possible to prise a couple of quality players away from other clubs.

He told the DT, ‘we ran out of steam’, ‘I should have strengthened’ and ‘the fact that we didn’t is down to me’.

I admire his honesty...let’s hope you’re right about what might happen this January and that we’re still in contention by then.

[MadAmster]

No worries. apparently JJ is available this weekend. They just haven't said how long he's available for.... I hope for the lad (and for us) that he stays fit.

[swaledale]

He told the DT, ‘we ran out of steam’, ‘I should have strengthened’ and ‘the fact that we didn’t is down to me’.

I admire his honesty...let’s hope you’re right about what might happen this January and that we’re still in contention by then.

Yes he did say that, he also said, he didn't want to sign players just to be a sub, which suggests strongly that finding available players as good or better than were in the squad was difficult, but maybe if he had added some bodies to the squad this would have enabled players to be rested and refreshed the squad which might have had a positive impact.

But its a judgement call isn't it, if he'd signed players to beef up the squad that weren't that good then fans would be asking why he signed them and wasted the wage budget for 1 or 2 years! Obviously if we'd got in the playoffs or got promotion then that would have been irrelevant.

The point still stands though that without being able to pay a transfer fee, what quality of players available on a free transfer could he have obtained? Presumably the loans were the best on offer?

Not sure why your dubious about the team being in contention come January? Given our performance in the league to date matches that of last season over the same period, there is no reason to believe that that will now suddenly change. Plus with no League or FA Cup matches there is less chance of fatigue or injuries affecting performance. The stats suggest we will be there or thereabouts.

Also that despite the moans about performance and recruitment, the team has performed in the league as well as it did in the same period last year!

The big change in January will be the ability to pay a fee for a player, making it more likely he can sign a player or two that can make a difference, however its still a tricky window to get a quality player in.

[ramAnag]

Yes he did say that, he also said, he didn't want to sign players just to be a sub, which suggests strongly that finding available players as good or better than were in the squad was difficult, but maybe if he had added some bodies to the squad this would have enabled players to be rested and refreshed the squad which might have had a positive impact.

But its a judgement call isn't it, if he'd signed players to beef up the squad that weren't that good then fans would be asking why he signed them and wasted the wage budget for 1 or 2 years! Obviously if we'd got in the playoffs or got promotion then that would have been irrelevant.

The point still stands though that without being able to pay a transfer fee, what quality of players available on a free transfer could he have obtained? Presumably the loans were the best on offer?

Not sure why your dubious about the team being in contention come January? Given our performance in the league to date matches that of last season over the same period, there is no reason to believe that that will now suddenly change. Plus with no League or FA Cup matches there is less chance of fatigue or injuries affecting performance. The stats suggest we will be there or thereabouts.

Also that despite the moans about performance and recruitment, the team has performed in the league as well as it did in the same period last year!

The big change in January will be the ability to pay a fee for a player, making it more likely he can sign a player or two that can make a difference, however its still a tricky window to get a quality player in.

Dubious? Only because, as others have commented, we don’t know what we’re getting. The fact that ‘the team has performed as well as it did in the same period last year!’ is just another way of saying that, despite all the signings, we haven’t progressed.
There have been a few very encouraging performances...Blackpool and Peterborough (A), Northampton and Barnsley (H)...and there have been some truly dreadful ones...Oxford (H), Cheltenham, Shrewsbury, Stevenage (A) and Crewe (H&A).
So we just don’t know what we’re getting. We’ve got some tricky looking fixtures coming up and about 24 points to play for (I think) before the window opens and while my hopes are the same as yours, I honestly don’t know what to expect or what you think would be unacceptable at that stage of the season and after 15 months of PW’s regime.
At the moment we’re averaging fractionally over 1.5 ppm. That would give us about 13 points from those 8 matches. I’m hoping for more but who can tell...is the real Derby what we saw at home to Barnsley or at home to Crewe three days later?