What if Putin Goes For Kiev?

[baggieal]

Seems like the Russians are advancing and Ukraine lack ammunition. Putin is taking advantage of this and what would NATO do if they advance towards Kiev?

Why have NATO when countries like Germany and Hungary rule out troops on the ground. Hungary not only rule out troops on the grounds but military aid so what’s the point in them being in NATO?

I hate Trump but do agree with one of his points - all NATO countries should pay their fair financial contributions for military aid. Why should the US or U.K. keep sending over millions in financial aid and other countries like Hungary do nothing?

At what point does NATO stop Putin? Should us and Europe be more concerned with Russia on our door step than getting involved in Gaza which should have nothing to do with us? Clearly we have learnt nothing from Afghanistan and now executions and girls being second class citizens is the norm again!

[DaveP67 is back!]

Seems like the Russians are advancing and Ukraine lack ammunition. Putin is taking advantage of this and what would NATO do if they advance towards Kiev?

Why have NATO when countries like Germany and Hungary rule out troops on the ground. Hungary not only rule out troops on the grounds but military aid so what’s the point in them being in NATO?

I hate Trump but do agree with one of his points - all NATO countries should pay their fair financial contributions for military aid. Why should the US or U.K. keep sending over millions in financial aid and other countries like Hungary do nothing?

At what point does NATO stop Putin? Should us and Europe be more concerned with Russia on our door step than getting involved in Gaza which should have nothing to do with us? Clearly we have learnt nothing from Afghanistan and now executions and girls being second class citizens is the norm again!

Trump is a clever businessman, horrible individual but clever, his tub thumping on NATO spend is quite clear, where do most NATO arms come from? Answer that question and you see why he wants more spent on arms.

[Omegstrat6]

Putin says he won't go for Kiev but obviously no can believe a word he says. NATO need to urgently upscale their deliveries of both ammunition and hardware because if Putin senses he capitalize on the combination of faltering Western aid and growing fatigue in Ukrainian ground forces then he surely will. Western military aid is urgently needed to prevent Putin even considering trying to push further westwards.

Ultimately, however, I do not believe that either Putin (despite his rhetoric) or NATO would want any escalation that might lead to a direct conflict between them. Unfortunately, this then means that any eventual end to the war in Ukraine is likely to mean that Russia ends up gaining the eastern territories as I cannot realistically see Ukraine having the manpower to beat them back regardless of any Western hardware they get. The supply of latest generation fighters might help to establish air superiority for them but I cannot see anyone supplying them with these and NATO troops on the ground is not going to happen. Supplying Ukraine with weapons to give them the capability to more effectively attack targets in Russia is another option that might help turn the Russian populace against Putin's war but it's a gamble and one not likely to be seriously considered by Western nations.

Bordering NATO countries are clearly worried and already building up their military capabilities to deter Putin from further expansion but sadly difficult to see Ukraine achieving its aims here. Ultimately, Putin would be happy with the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions and retaining the Crimea as he could sell this to the Russian people as a victory. He doesn't need complete victory. Western sanctions will still hurt and Russia may remain a pariah state but it won't really bother him. The only thing that will concern him is the increased presence of NATO forces on his borders but his own actions have led to this and there is nothing he can do about it.

As for Ukraine, the country will surely reach a point when it has lost too many lives and too much of its infrastructure is destroyed. Fatigue for the meat-grinder attrition of the war will then likely lead to many Ukrainians accepting the loss of its eastern territories in exchange for an end to the war and a chance to rebuild what they have. May even be that Ukraine is then allowed to become a NATO member as part of any settlement deal which would p iss Putin off but be necessary for Ukraine to feel safe from further aggression. It's far from morally right but pragmatic.

Short of direct confrontation between NATO forces and Russia, I cannot see any other end to this. Time is something Putin still has as he simply has the numbers of men and hardware to keep throwing into his war and his propaganda machine and autocratic control at home mean that, unlike Afghanistan, the mounting losses are not yet sufficient for ordinary Russians to turn against him. For Ukraine though, time is running out.

Having said all this, I still believe that continued supply of arms and ammunition to Ukraine is essential as to not do so would only encourage Putin to expand his aims beyond control of Crimea and the eastern regions. Just hope karma catches up with him soon!

[On Balance]

“Putin is not a man who you can negotiate with,” Yulia Navalnaya has said when she addressed the European Parliment today.

So how do you deal with such a dictator, with a bully. The West has tried to assist Ukraine in the war Russia brought to that country, but have the West done enough?

Initially, it appeared that the financial and military hardware support might provide Putins unelected Government that they were dealing with more than just a single country. The Russian bullies totally underestimated the Ukraine resilience and the support offered by the West. And they paid for it in the first 22 months of the war. Now the tide has turned, Russia is making advances and the support from some quarters of the West is sadly and shamefully wavering with ammunition and hardware diminishing.

One problem Russian people have is that have absolutely no idea of the truth. They, in the main, only have access to Putin’s rhetoric. I find myself unsure of where the West should go at this point of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On one hand I can see the logic of not allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons inside of Russia (Real Russia not the the land Russia has grabbed from Ukraine) as we do not really want to start WW3.

However, has WW3 already started? It just might have and the West is perhaps handing an advantage to Putin’s totalitarian, terrorist Government. (I do not use those words lightly). Does the West believe perhaps that the longer the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues the more depleted the Russian war machine will become. Perhaps so, but were there not suggestions a year or so after invasion began, that Russia’s stockpile of missiles was running low. Well they are still firing many missiles and UAV’s into Ukraine so where are they getting them from?

We all know the answer to that. Despite all the denials it is not beyond the intelligence services collectively of Western countries to identify where and how Russia is obtaining such. We all can guess anyway, it’s from China, North Korea and Syria for starters.

Putin has aimed many threats at Western Governments. If the West supply weapons to Ukraine there will be consequences. If the West supply tanks, there will be consequences. If NATO put troops on the ground in Ukraine, there will be consequences. If Western supplied weaponry hit Russia, there will be consequences. The West has supplied weapons and tanks etc. Has there been consequences?

Has the West done anything militarily towards those countries that have and continue to supply the Russian war machine with ammunition etc. No! Yet because of Putin’s threats Ukraine are unable to utilise the weapons the West supply to them in a way it could assist in deterring those Russian gains. It might also make the Russian public realise they are at war and it is not just a military operation as Putin puts it.

Has the bully Putin’s evil terrorist regime got the West running scared? It seems as though they might have. Will showing this weakness stoke Putin’s greed for dominance and encourage him to continue to Kyiv and beyond. According to the Institute for the Study of War the answer is most likely yes.

Is not time for Western leaders to take the lead and give an ultimatum to the terrorists based regime in the kremlin, in that, unless they stop utilising weapons and hardware in Ukraine which have been procured by Russia from other countries then Western countries will remove any conditions which have been place on Ukraine and as such as of (a time and date) those conditions will be removed and Ukraine may utilise weapons that have been supplied by the West beyond Russia’s borders

If Russia sees this as an escalation then we will be where we are earlier than where we will end up any within the next few years, if the West continue to cower from the threats of the Putin.

How many times have we heard it said that the best way to deal with a bully is stand up to him.

Putin will, sooner or later, invade one of the smaller Baltic countries who are member of NATO. Time is on Putin’s side of the West allows.

These are just my thoughts and I guess there will be many differing views. I do not want another world war. However, I think if you don’t make a stand it’s coming anyway.

I don’t really like writing long posts so I am sorry if you got bored after the first sentence. ��.

[wbaliquidator]

Agree with all of the above.
But I’m really concerned that us in the West have already been outwitted by the Kremlin.
I urge you all to check out Wikipedia Project 2025 which is Trumps manifesto and how he will reform the USA into his dictatorship – yes, it’s all there.
Russia does not want a war with all of NATO and does not expect to need to fight all of Nato anyway. Their aim is to ensure Nato never even bothers fight back as there is uncertainty in the alliance.
Their view has always been that they don’t need to fight the USA as they can destroy them from within.
Active Measures – that what they called the project. Realising that they would never be a direct match to Nato they decide to use more covert tactics to undermine us from within,
Getting the West to break apart by infiltrating and influencing our decision makers and media space. People like Trump, Tucker Carlson, Musk and every extreme left or right group anything that causes us to argue and distrust our governments. Spending Billions on troll farms and social media posts posting untruths. Look how disorganised Europe is and the USA is paralysed by Moscow Mike Johnson.
Make no mistake its all going to get much worse. All Autocratic and dictator led countries have formed an unlikely alliance all united by a common enemy, the west. Russia, China, Syria, Iran, N Korea and Venezuela. Not forgetting every other anti-west terrorist group and any other groups the kremlin can stir up in Africa via inflaming ex colonialism sentiments.
We need to mobilise in the information space and quickly.
I’m afraid for my kids as they will have to fight for their freedom. On the other hand, probably not as the majority will just succumb to the brainwashing via every possible media that the Kremin has perfected over the Years.
We can freely vent our views on our own politicians as a democratic society but we must never take it for granted.
I urge you to check out in Wikipedia PROJECT 2025

[mickd1961]

So much for AL’s prophecy 18 months ago that Putin was about to die from cancer etc.

Unfortunately he seems as robust and dominant as ever.

I do think his death is the best hope for peace.

In the meantime, the softening of support for Ukraine is both predictable and sad, a political elite across Europe and in the USA who are incapable of seeing the bigger picture.

[Albionic68]

So much for AL’s prophecy 18 months ago that Putin was about to die from cancer etc.

Unfortunately he seems as robust and dominant as ever.

I do think his death is the best hope for peace.

In the meantime, the softening of support for Ukraine is both predictable and sad, a political elite across Europe and in the USA who are incapable of seeing the bigger picture.

Combined Covid/Flu jab would sort the cnut out, no need for any of that nerve agent s hite 😉 .

[Omegstrat6]

Agree with all of the above.
But I’m really concerned that us in the West have already been outwitted by the Kremlin.
I urge you all to check out Wikipedia Project 2025 which is Trumps manifesto and how he will reform the USA into his dictatorship – yes, it’s all there.
Russia does not want a war with all of NATO and does not expect to need to fight all of Nato anyway. Their aim is to ensure Nato never even bothers fight back as there is uncertainty in the alliance.
Their view has always been that they don’t need to fight the USA as they can destroy them from within.
Active Measures – that what they called the project. Realising that they would never be a direct match to Nato they decide to use more covert tactics to undermine us from within,
Getting the West to break apart by infiltrating and influencing our decision makers and media space. People like Trump, Tucker Carlson, Musk and every extreme left or right group anything that causes us to argue and distrust our governments. Spending Billions on troll farms and social media posts posting untruths. Look how disorganised Europe is and the USA is paralysed by Moscow Mike Johnson.
Make no mistake its all going to get much worse. All Autocratic and dictator led countries have formed an unlikely alliance all united by a common enemy, the west. Russia, China, Syria, Iran, N Korea and Venezuela. Not forgetting every other anti-west terrorist group and any other groups the kremlin can stir up in Africa via inflaming ex colonialism sentiments.
We need to mobilise in the information space and quickly.
I’m afraid for my kids as they will have to fight for their freedom. On the other hand, probably not as the majority will just succumb to the brainwashing via every possible media that the Kremin has perfected over the Years.
We can freely vent our views on our own politicians as a democratic society but we must never take it for granted.
I urge you to check out in Wikipedia PROJECT 2025

I'd read about the Heritage Foundation before but, whilst a rather dangerously mad lot, I can't really see their playbook being implemented as surely even Americans aren't that dumb (well, ok, some are but not all).

I did check out the Wikipedia page as suggested though and the Foundation's president, Kevin Roberts, made me laugh when he states:

"The long match of cultural Marxism through our institutions has come to pass. The federal government is a behemoth, weaponised against American citizens and conservative values, with freedom and liberty under siege like never before"

Conservative dislike of "big government" is nothing new and neither is their dislike of any regulations that might hamper their ability to make yet more money for themselves (pesky things such as workers rights or taxation) but their "Mandate for leadership" takes things to a whole new level. And I thought Truss & Co. 's "Britannia Un-chained" was bad enough !😁

When he talks of "freedom and liberty", of course, he only means to apply these to a select few just as the freedoms demanded by the Magna Carta only applied to the wealthy barons not the filthy serfs and most certainly not to women.

Anyhow, in their fight against the "deep state" and in order to Make America Great Again and ensure freedom and liberty, the Foundation recommends replacing existing civil servants (who are all part of said deep state) with thousands of more right thinking conservatives, breaking up the FBI and Homeland Security, reversing environmental and climate change policies to allow more use of fossil fuels, lowering taxes (particularly corporation tax), reversing woke policies such as discrimination laws around ***, colour or gender, making abortion illegal, expelling thousands of immigrants, actively promoting Christian nationalism and-of course-giving the President absolute power of the Executive branch. Proof indeed of the "democracy in crisis" claims. What could possibly go wrong?

I don't doubt that there are many Americans (mostly fans of the Orange One) who would actually endorse all the above but ultimately cannot see it happening.

As for Russia, China, N. Korea, Iran and it's "axis of resistance", and other countries under autocratic rule, whilst it is tempting to see them all forming an alliance between themselves against the West I don't believe this will come to much fruition. Whilst the West may indeed be seen as a common enemy, there remain vast differences between them all. More importantly though, their leaders-by nature-do not play well with others. This does not, however, mean that we should not be on our guard as all pose serious and genuine threats to our security. Putin and Xi Jinping, I would suggest, being the most dangerous of these.

[Barrera]

Seems like the Russians are advancing and Ukraine lack ammunition. Putin is taking advantage of this and what would NATO do if they advance towards Kiev?

Why have NATO when countries like Germany and Hungary rule out troops on the ground. Hungary not only rule out troops on the grounds but military aid so what’s the point in them being in NATO?

I hate Trump but do agree with one of his points - all NATO countries should pay their fair financial contributions for military aid. Why should the US or U.K. keep sending over millions in financial aid and other countries like Hungary do nothing?

At what point does NATO stop Putin? Should us and Europe be more concerned with Russia on our door step than getting involved in Gaza which should have nothing to do with us? Clearly we have learnt nothing from Afghanistan and now executions and girls being second class citizens is the norm again!

Putin has put the entire Russian economy on a war footing - 30% of GDP is going on defence spending. In a dictatorship he can get away with it as he has suppressed all forms of descent. Meanwhile in the West countries dither and prevaricate over meeting their 2% NATO budget. So on this point Trump - and I detest the guy - is actually spot on. The West and particularly the European countries need to wake up and respond before it’s too late - this is on our door step. Yet we want our comfortable lifestyles … burying our heads in the sand as to what’s really happening in Ukraine. Putin cannot be trusted - the only language he respects is force. So until the West wakes up and stands up to the dictator he will just keep pushing … we have been here before with Hitler. The comparisons are so similar. I fear for Ukraine - Putin will not stop at the Donbas - he wants all of Ukraine. I fear for the Baltic states too.

As for Gaza, major problem yes … needs to be sorted yes - I do favour a two state Palestinian and Israeli solution …. but the Arab Israeli conflict has been going on for decades. This will not be resolved easily. I am more worried about Ukraine than Gaza.

[baggieal]

Putin has put the entire Russian economy on a war footing - 30% of GDP is going on defence spending. In a dictatorship he can get away with it as he has suppressed all forms of descent. Meanwhile in the West countries dither and prevaricate over meeting their 2% NATO budget. So on this point Trump - and I detest the guy - is actually spot on. The West and particularly the European countries need to wake up and respond before it’s too late - this is on our door step. Yet we want our comfortable lifestyles … burying our heads in the sand as to what’s really happening in Ukraine. Putin cannot be trusted - the only language he respects is force. So until the West wakes up and stands up to the dictator he will just keep pushing … we have been here before with Hitler. The comparisons are so similar. I fear for Ukraine - Putin will not stop at the Donbas - he wants all of Ukraine. I fear for the Baltic states too.

As for Gaza, major problem yes … needs to be sorted yes - I do favour a two state Palestinian and Israeli solution …. but the Arab Israeli conflict has been going on for decades. This will not be resolved easily. I am more worried about Ukraine than Gaza.

Good post Barrera and agree. I dislike Trump too but as you say on this he’s right. Why should the USA keep pumping in millions of tax payers money when other NATO countries contribute zero or not their fair share! Trump has also got the public on their side by wanting to tackle illegal immigration. That’s what the public want here but we are too soft and keep throwing millions at the problem!