Should Israel Retaliate?

[WBA123]

Iran’s drone attack the other night was akin to those football fans separated by a fence and ranks of police who are shouting “come on then” knowing full well it’s just bravado.

I suspect that they knew it would have little or no effect but would allow them to save face.

I suspect that if we were all having this chat 100 years or 500 years from now that the Middle East will still be a cluster f u c k.

I don’t think it’s a problem that can ever be solved.

Agree with all of this. It wasn't exactly a very credible attack. I heard a rumour from someone supposedly ITK down here in London, who said the Americans gave them the green light to attack Israel using this type of weaponry knowing it wouldn't do much damage and would allow Iran to save face.

Americans have their fingers everywhere. Their foreign policy is truly bewildering.

As for the long term implications, I don't see any solutions in the coming decades where a peace can be reached.

[Dubbag]

On that note, I’ve never quite understood why we’re allied to Israel. How was this decided and what do we get from a partnership? They can’t be economic partners as they’re tiny.

They are a democracy with regular elections and an open society. Everybody else in the region doesn't have this.
Back after WW2, they were the only friendly nation with a deep sea port (Haifa) that could support aircraft carriers. All the others were under Communist umbrella. It was at a time when cold war was a very real conflict. Having a democratic state surrounded by dictators was a no brainer.
Seeing as so many Brittish service people gave their valued lives/blood to stop dictators, it kinda made sense to help the very principles your own society is valued and based on.
No?

[Dubbag]

Agree with all of this. It wasn't exactly a very credible attack. I heard a rumour from someone supposedly ITK down here in London, who said the Americans gave them the green light to attack Israel using this type of weaponry knowing it wouldn't do much damage and would allow Iran to save face.

Americans have their fingers everywhere. Their foreign policy is truly bewildering.

As for the long term implications, I don't see any solutions in the coming decades where a peace can be reached.

No green light was given.
Just propaganda. Iran did not expect nor anticipate Arab state intervention against their assault. Jordan had already been in touch with a number of Arab leaders regarding their potential actions. All agreed to back them.
This was a serious attack that failed. Iran will have to sweat now for a while. Of course they could turn to Russia for help?

[Omegstrat6]

It has a lot to do with their location and their close links to the USA.

Unfortunately they're a bit hot headed. I don't really understand their strategy in Gaza, all they are doing by bombing the hell out of them is creating hatred and resentment from the next generation of Palestinians. It doesn't make much long term sense to me.

My understanding is that the US has close ties with Israel mostly due to historical links begun during the Cold War era when having a Westernized democracy as an ally in the region was a key part of their geo-political policies. Racist trope or not, it is also likely true that some very powerful Jewish American businessmen have not inconsiderable influence on US policy towards Israel.

As for the UK, again, there are strong historical links with Israel. The British were a dominant force in the region following the fall of the Ottoman Empire in WW1 and set up the British Mandate for Palestine in 1920 whilst at the same time encouraging Jewish emigration to the area as part of their support of the Zionist movement. This movement was born in the 19th Century out of continued persecution, particularly in Russia and Eastern Europe, and aimed at establishing a Jewish homeland in the region. It is a more unsavoury truth that the reasons for British support (and that from other Western European nations for that matter) for Zionism was driven less by concern for their plight but more by racism as they did not want to home large populations of Jews themselves.

Conflict between the ever increasing number of Jewish settlers and the Arab population then only grew and this only got worse after WW2 when thousands of displaced Jewish refugees, unable or unwilling to return to their homes in Europe, sought refuge in Palestine. When the British Mandate ended and the State of Israel was created in 1948 the first Arab-Israeli war began. Continued Western support for Israel is also doubtless rooted in a kind of collective guilt over whether the Allies could have done more to help during the Holocaust perpetrated by the Nazis (not that Stalin was any friend to them).

As for your last point, totally agree with you as Netanyahu's policy in Gaza is both unlikely to kill off Hamas as well as only inciting yet more hatred of Israel by new generations.

[DaveP67 is back!]

Yes they should, but only in such a way that weakens the Iranian regime and its puppets, they can’t do what they have done in Gaza.

[Omegstrat6]

No green light was given.
Just propaganda. Iran did not expect nor anticipate Arab state intervention against their assault. Jordan had already been in touch with a number of Arab leaders regarding their potential actions. All agreed to back them.
This was a serious attack that failed. Iran will have to sweat now for a while. Of course they could turn to Russia for help?

Don't know whether it was Green Lit for them to save face or not, but despite the sheer number of drones/missiles launched there is definitely something a bit "off" about the attack.

I don't think anyone would argue that, despite Iran's numerical advantage, Israel does not have a far greater technological one thanks to US aid and support. Given the known successes of Ukraine in shooting down the vast majority of Russian drones/ missiles and the highly unlikely scenario that Iran was not aware of Israel's much touted "defensive dome", something does not seem straight forward about Iran's attack. Certainly, if it was a serious attempt then it failed but given that Khamenei has always seemed wary of drawing Israel -and certainly the US- into a direct conflict there is a logical possibility that this was an attack meant more to be a "show of face" than to cause any real damage which would, in turn, have provoked a severe retaliation. Conspiracy theory? Maybe, but the stakes are high and political manoeuvring ofen nefarious. Just hope Netanyahu heeds the calls for resraint.

[Dubbag]

Don't know whether it was Green Lit for them to save face or not, but despite the sheer number of drones/missiles launched there is definitely something a bit "off" about the attack.

I don't think anyone would argue that, despite Iran's numerical advantage, Israel does not have a far greater technological one thanks to US aid and support. Given the known successes of Ukraine in shooting down the vast majority of Russian drones/ missiles and the highly unlikely scenario that Iran was not aware of Israel's much touted "defensive dome", something does not seem straight forward about Iran's attack. Certainly, if it was a serious attempt then it failed but given that Khamenei has always seemed wary of drawing Israel -and certainly the US- into a direct conflict there is a logical possibility that this was an attack meant more to be a "show of face" than to cause any real damage which would, in turn, have provoked a severe retaliation. Conspiracy theory? Maybe, but the stakes are high and political manoeuvring ofen nefarious. Just hope Netanyahu heeds the calls for resraint.

The regimne's choices were limited contrary to the media and experts.
Lebanon is in crisis domestically and Hezbollah with all it's missiles there would cause ruin to an already collapsed economy for the locals. Remember outside of southern Lebanon, there is no great support for Hezbollah and many would happily see them get a shattering from Israel.
Hamas is tied up at the moment.
Yemen is under going a famine across the country and can not reach Israel.
They had to break cover and fire directly at Israel. They did and they failed. They were showing blazing fires in Chile and reporting it was a strike on Israel proper. Straight out of the standard dictator's manual. lies lies and more lies.
Like we found out about Russia with it's invasion of the Ukraine....they are not what their own propaganda would have us believe.
China's so called fence sitting will be causing splinters for them.
Perhaps they should go for Taiwan now. A s s holes the lot of them.

[kettering_baggie]

It is widely understood that Iran is developing a nuclear capability; that to me, seems more dangerous than Putin having nukes. Such weapons in the hands of religious fanatics is seriously dangerous. So, does Israel attack Iran now, before that nuclear programme is completed or wait for the conflict to break out when the Mad Mullahs have nuclear weapons? If they believe that war with Iran is inevitable some time in the future, then it would make sense to hit them now. Not that I want to see war break out, it is the most ridiculous act that humans just cannot resist. We certainly live in very dangerous times.

[baggieal]

It is widely understood that Iran is developing a nuclear capability; that to me, seems more dangerous than Putin having nukes. Such weapons in the hands of religious fanatics is seriously dangerous. So, does Israel attack Iran now, before that nuclear programme is completed or wait for the conflict to break out when the Mad Mullahs have nuclear weapons? If they believe that war with Iran is inevitable some time in the future, then it would make sense to hit them now. Not that I want to see war break out, it is the most ridiculous act that humans just cannot resist. We certainly live in very dangerous times.

Totally agree!

[Dubbag]

Well, something going on.