OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[Andy_Faber]

Probably the most important decision since the one to declare war on Germany, and you only have to watch the Churchill film to appreciate that that was a bodge up of a vote that hardly had great parliamentary support and split parties. We cant do anything easily can we

I now think we'll leave with 'no deal'. Maybe we should have had Noel Edmonds and his man on the phone involved in all this

I think in one area that will hit EU MUCH harder than UK, and that's the Irish border. IMO UK will decline to have a physical border and call EU's bluff on it

[Ram59]

I now think we'll leave with 'no deal'. Maybe we should have had Noel Edmonds and his man on the phone involved in all this

I think in one area that will hit EU MUCH harder than UK, and that's the Irish border. IMO UK will decline to have a physical border and call EU's bluff on it

That's an interesting proposition that I hadn't thought of. Would the eu then force the republic into having a hard border, against its wishes?

[Andy_Faber]

IMO that would be a massive win for uk, effectively out-Shenghening them

[MadAmster]

That's an interesting proposition that I hadn't thought of. Would the eu then force the republic into having a hard border, against its wishes?

If Mayhem's little speech this afternoon is true then the EU wants Northern Ireland, at the very least, and would prefer the entire UK, to remain part of some form of Customs Union. I think they also want to keep the UK in the Single Market via the EEA route. Mayhem has blasted both ideas straight out of the water.

The Dutch (currently the EU's single largest net payer) and the German industrialists and politicians must be bricking it.

They are the only 2 able to pay substantially more to account for their losing the UK funding. That is a net "loss" to the EU of around £180M a week.

[Andy_Faber]

If Mayhem's little speech this afternoon is true then the EU wants Northern Ireland, at the very least, and would prefer the entire UK, to remain part of some form of Customs Union. I think they also want to keep the UK in the Single Market via the EEA route. Mayhem has blasted both ideas straight out of the water.

The Dutch (currently the EU's single largest net payer) and the German industrialists and politicians must be bricking it.

They are the only 2 able to pay substantially more to account for their losing the UK funding. That is a net "loss" to the EU of around £180M a week.

I didn’t know that about the Dutch contribution.

Maybe the manner of the Eu rejection will prove to be a tipping point, when the gloves finally came off, Imelda certainly looked as angry as I’ve ever seen a vicar’s daughter get, and I’ve known a few

[ramAnag]

I didn’t know that about the Dutch contribution.

Maybe the manner of the Eu rejection will prove to be a tipping point, when the gloves finally came off, Imelda certainly looked as angry as I’ve ever seen a vicar’s daughter get, and I’ve known a few

I was married to one once...long ago - a vicar’s daughter not an Imelda - used to throw things at me. Probably deserved it!
Got on better with her dad...surprisingly!

Think your figures may be a tad misleading MA. Aren’t you talking per capita contribution?
The actual figures up to three years ago, in terms of contribution to the EU, were...Germany 20.5%, France 16%, UK 15.4%, Italy 12%, Spain 7.4%, Netherlands 4.9% and Others 23.9%.

[Andy_Faber]

That's an interesting proposition that I hadn't thought of. Would the eu then force the republic into having a hard border, against its wishes?

A bit of a kerching moment on Newsnight earlier. Evan Davies pushed the offered-up EU representative, quite hard and repeatedly, on what EU would do about the Irish border in the event of no deal, and he repeatedly avoided the question. If there is anyone in UK politics either remotely as lateral thinking as we footy fans or better still a footy mad forum member slavishly reading our musings, maybe they'll push this issue for increased leverage

[MadAmster]

I was married to one once...long ago - a vicar’s daughter not an Imelda - used to throw things at me. Probably deserved it!
Got on better with her dad...surprisingly!

Think your figures may be a tad misleading MA. Aren’t you talking per capita contribution?
The actual figures up to three years ago, in terms of contribution to the EU, were...Germany 20.5%, France 16%, UK 15.4%, Italy 12%, Spain 7.4%, Netherlands 4.9% and Others 23.9%.

Can't remember whether it was per capita or not. It is NET contribution. What you put in minus what you get back. Dutch total GROSS contribution is lower than others due to having a mere 17M inhabitants.

[Manofpride]

I warmed a bit to Theresa May yesterday, I thought her surprise press conference from 10 Downing Street yesterday
was good! Well done her. I bet RA was impressed too! Now where's that tin hat!!!

[MadAmster]

I was married to one once...long ago - a vicar’s daughter not an Imelda - used to throw things at me. Probably deserved it!
Got on better with her dad...surprisingly!

Think your figures may be a tad misleading MA. Aren’t you talking per capita contribution?
The actual figures up to three years ago, in terms of contribution to the EU, were...Germany 20.5%, France 16%, UK 15.4%, Italy 12%, Spain 7.4%, Netherlands 4.9% and Others 23.9%.

I looked further into this and the Dutch lead the way in % of GDP paid into the EU (0.4%) as well as Euros per capita. Obviously, countries with far larger populations pay more in total but IMO the important figure is what it costs an individual in Tax.

https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2016/50/netherlands-largest-net-contributor-eu-this-century

[ramAnag]

I looked further into this and the Dutch lead the way in % of GDP paid into the EU (0.4%) as well as Euros per capita. Obviously, countries with far larger populations pay more in total but IMO the important figure is what it costs an individual in Tax.

https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2016/5...u-this-century

See your point MA, but I’ll guarantee that won’t be the way the EU look at it and my main surprise was that such a wealthy and industrialised country as Holland contrlbutes so comparatively little.

My other surprise was...if the UK’s contribution is then less than 0.4% of our GDP - which it must be if the article is right - what is all the fuss about?

To add further perspective, I understand the NHS costs approx. 9.8% of GDP. Personally I believe it’s worth every penny and should be given more but it’s almost 10% which is a total economic drain whereas the sub 0.4% given to the EU actually gives us something in return.

[Geoff Parkstone]

It does?

The NHS is a core part of our sharing / caring society but it is essentially unworkable in an ageing and decaying population as that 10% would need to double if everyone were to get what they wanted. Same as the other product of that era of social enlightenment: the state pension. Again unworkable in an ageing society that isnt dying out soon enough. Add to that social care to make an unholy trilogy born of the same mindset and its pretty clear where some 50% of our GDP goes. Bear in mind this is GROSS DP as well.

Its no surprise that whole area will become a festering sore as the "me generation" - or whatever the current 16-35 group call themselves - slowly understand that its them who has to fund it, along with their student loans for the pointless degree that gets them no job (no, not aimed at just the social media students here!) but hey, someone encouraged them to do it.

Set in that context 0.4% isnt a lot, but expressed in LSD it still buys a lot of nurses, hospitals, winter fuel supplements, JSA's etc and so on. A drop in the ocean compared to the whole "social services" spend outlined above though, however that is all doomed to collapse into a black hole of privatisation over the next 20 years as people will have to pay for themselves or go without. For too long society has been dependent on the centre paying for everything - wake up and smell the fish: its unsustainable, but for now every little 0.4% will help prop it up until I die!!

[ramAnag]

It does?

The NHS is a core part of our sharing / caring society but it is essentially unworkable in an ageing and decaying population as that 10% would need to double if everyone were to get what they wanted. Same as the other product of that era of social enlightenment: the state pension. Again unworkable in an ageing society that isnt dying out soon enough. Add to that social care to make an unholy trilogy born of the same mindset and its pretty clear where some 50% of our GDP goes. Bear in mind this is GROSS DP as well.

Its no surprise that whole area will become a festering sore as the "me generation" - or whatever the current 16-35 group call themselves - slowly understand that its them who has to fund it, along with their student loans for the pointless degree that gets them no job (no, not aimed at just the social media students here!) but hey, someone encouraged them to do it.

Set in that context 0.4% isnt a lot, but expressed in LSD it still buys a lot of nurses, hospitals, winter fuel supplements, JSA's etc and so on. A drop in the ocean compared to the whole "social services" spend outlined above though, however that is all doomed to collapse into a black hole of privatisation over the next 20 years as people will have to pay for themselves or go without. For too long society has been dependent on the centre paying for everything - wake up and smell the fish: its unsustainable, but for now every little 0.4% will help prop it up until I die!!

Gosh you sound more like an accountant than a retired woodwork teacher, Parky!
I actually don’t think it is less than 0.4% but my point was that we get an awful lot back for it.
By coincidence I had to pay for some very minor medical treatment in the U.S. a couple of days ago...$100 to see a doctor and nearly $60 for a routine course of antibiotics. Is that what we have to look forward to?
We need to be very careful what we throw away. Who knows, perhaps targeted tax rises and everyone...those who inhabit Self Employed Close as much as those in Benefits Street...paying their way might be a start.
Course we’ll all need more insurance after Brexit anyway because there’ll be no reciprocal health service arrangement for those working, living and holidaying abroad. Thanks again Nigel, Boris and Co...oh but then they can afford it!

[swaledale]

To be clear I would still vote remain if the same questions were asked, I would reconsider if different ones were asked. But as things stand, I am 100% committed to Brexit because that's what the UK decided, whatever the 'Its Not fair!!!!' posse might argue in disagreement. I see absolutely no contradiction in that, I have voted on the losing side on many many things throughout my life, but have always respected the majority vote. I also don't see what's contradictory in considering voting for Lib Dem in the hope it would act as a moderating force to the two extremist parties, when the Lib Dems are pushing for a second vote - there ain't gonna be one so the issue is irrelevant

To be clear 37% of the Uk decided, not what the Uk decided? 37% is not big majority nor frankly is 52% over 48% of those who voted to follow through on such a decision which will have ramifications for years to come.

Quite why the majority in this country have to potentially suffer the disastrous consequences of the bigoted, the ignorant and the backward looking people who largely voted leave - I still meet supposedly intelligent people whose sole reason for voting leave was the £350 million going to the NHS! - is beyond me but that democracy folks - a small majority and not even the majority of the voting population vote for economic suicide and nobody seems able to stop it - still I'm confident reality will prevail and we will end up in the single market and customs union and if the sum riot, well time to call in the troops!

[swaledale]

I now think we'll leave with 'no deal'. Maybe we should have had Noel Edmonds and his man on the phone involved in all this

I think in one area that will hit EU MUCH harder than UK, and that's the Irish border. IMO UK will decline to have a physical border and call EU's bluff on it

Then you really do not ave a clue, sure it will be a bad deal for the EU, but it will be catastrophic for the UK - and yes the Uk could decline to have a hard border, Ireland however will have one - seriously if your going to comment please ensure you have some idea about the facts!