OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[swaledale]

Interesting - and these figures solely relate to job losses due to Brexit, ot just job losses in an undefined period, including perhaps the impact of technology etc?

5000 due to relocation may be reasonable as insurance and financial services deal with passporting issues, but my experience points to that simply creating jobs in eu countries, not switching jobs from uk: but I wouldn't argue with the 5k too much. Unless you are one of those 5k, it's only a scratch on a 35m (??) workforce.

It's clear why Scotland wanted to stay in!

Yes these losses are nothing to do with technology etc. and refer to the period since we voted to leave.

The 5k is the jobs that i directly have seen relocated not the total! These are jobs that were in the Uk and are now in the EU so they are lost not additional jobs created. in the EU.

The loss of these jobs also has a knock on, with other jobs being lost as UK suppliers and service providers are no longer used, that tends to be in the order of 2 job losses for each "principle job" lost.

Its largely academic as the impact Covid-19 will ensure that it will be very difficult to identify the total economic impact of Brexit. Though that may be exacerbated in the event we don't strike a trade deal. Something even i think the current numpty's will not risk - if the adoption of a withdrawal agreement which was basically May's original deal spun as something different is anything to go by.

[mistaram]

Your opinion is worthless because its not based on facts or anything but blind prejudice.

I can't be arsed to refute everything you say life is too short, but most on here are bright enough to know most of what you post is utter *******s, and you've been called out many times.

I'd just question how the EU was responsible for outsourcing production to China, Singapore, Taiwan, Bangledesh, Turkey etc. etc. which firms have been doing for eons!

On wages :

The Independent Migration Advisory Committee found there was some evidence that immigration depressed the wages of lower-skilled workers while inflating those of higher-skilled workers, but added that the impact was generally small.

When it talks about a small impact, it looked at the period from 1993 to 2017, over which time average earnings for the lowest-paid rose by 55%. Using economic modelling, they estimated that - if there hadn't been European migration into the UK - that rise would have been around 5% higher.

It added that more research was needed to find out if there had been any impact on self-employed workers.

The MAC concluded that other factors had a greater impact on wages, with all workers having done badly since the financial crisis. Real wages are still struggling to rise above where they were in 2008, but lower-skilled workers have done marginally better due to the minimum wage rising faster than average earnings.

Bloody he'll Swales your trying to blind him with the truth are you . I can tell you from my own experience having interviewed and employed personal from EU countries . The last thing they will let you do is short change them on wages

[swaledale]

Bloody he'll Swales your trying to blind him with the truth are you . I can tell you from my own experience having interviewed and employed personal from EU countries . The last thing they will let you do is short change them on wages

One inconvenient truth is that the UK does not have a surplus labour problem - before the pandemic, unemployment was below 4% officially full employment.

About 30 years ago I was involved in helping a guy set up a factory near Barnsley. Part of the reason for the location was the availability of government grants to support industry in old coal field areas with high unemployment and the aim was to recruit local skilled labour, especially ex miners.

Now the jobs on offer were highly skilled with very good rates of pay especially compared to what was on offer in the area and full training was also on offer (government paid) so opportunities were there for anyone with the aptitude. . Despite his best efforts, he ended up with a workforce that was 45% EU labour, he could not recruit enough local people or even other UK people from the surrounding area.

I was on holiday in Scotland two years ago and was surprised that every hotel seemed to be run and staffed by EU workers. I thought that was strange, surely in the highlands local jobs were scarce? Talking to those who owned or run the establishments the answer was the same - we can't get enough local people and often the ones we do get don't stick at it but leave within a short time.

So two different scenarios but both seem to indicate that whether the job is high skilled high wage or relatively low skilled and low paid, there aren't enough Uk applicants to fill available jobs.

[swaledale]

No you shouldn't, and I probably spend a lot of time mooching round in a bubble a lot like yours, reasonably impervious to, or even benefiting from, the impact of Brexit and even Covid (providing I don't catch it). But I'm lucky (in a way) to spend time in a number of other bubbles, the ones which foretold that Brexit would happen and Trump would happen, and any anecdotes I give tend to be direct experiences outside my bubble. I think they are enlightening, maybe others do, you obviously don't.

Whats enlightening is that what you post dos not give the impression your aware that there may be other scenarios other than your own expereince!

[mistaram]

One inconvenient truth is that the UK does not have a surplus labour problem - before the pandemic, unemployment was below 4% officially full employment.

About 30 years ago I was involved in helping a guy set up a factory near Barnsley. Part of the reason for the location was the availability of government grants to support industry in old coal field areas with high unemployment and the aim was to recruit local skilled labour, especially ex miners.

Now the jobs on offer were highly skilled with very good rates of pay especially compared to what was on offer in the area and full training was also on offer (government paid) so opportunities were there for anyone with the aptitude. . Despite his best efforts, he ended up with a workforce that was 45% EU labour, he could not recruit enough local people or even other UK people from the surrounding area.

I was on holiday in Scotland two years ago and was surprised that every hotel seemed to be run and staffed by EU workers. I thought that was strange, surely in the highlands local jobs were scarce? Talking to those who owned or run the establishments the answer was the same - we can't get enough local people and often the ones we do get don't stick at it but leave within a short time.

So two different scenarios but both seem to indicate that whether the job is high skilled high wage or relatively low skilled and low paid, there aren't enough Uk applicants to fill available jobs.

These are very skilled jobs but our problem when recruiting is that local people prefer the security of large employees ie RR or Bombardier . But the Polish , Latvians etc are just as skilled ,highly motivated and loyal . A lot of UK problems are caused by a generation not wanting to take vocational degrees

[swaledale]

These are very skilled jobs but our problem when recruiting is that local people prefer the security of large employees ie RR or Bombardier . But the Polish , Latvians etc are just as skilled ,highly motivated and loyal . A lot of UK problems are caused by a generation not wanting to take vocational degrees

Your quite right and a view that training for jobs in manufacturing or a trade is of less value than a degree at some second rate university! A degree is not always the appropriate qualification for many people and one area I think the last Labour Giv got wrong was focussing on that rather than raising the overall skill levels of people.

Coupled of curse with the Uk's natural reluctance to venture far for work! Can you imagine hordes of our people moving to eastern europe to live and work if the economic circumstances were reversed? A few maybe, but most wouldn't!

The same applies to our footballers, precious few actually venture overeseas to play relative to the mobility of other nationalities.

[ramAnag]

A lot of UK problems are caused by a generation not wanting to take vocational degrees

Spot on, mista. In fact I’d go so far as to say a lot more than just a ‘generation’.
There is a real problem in this country - and elsewhere - with the ‘status’ given to different forms of knowledge.
For far too long, imo, ‘academic’ knowledge has received a level of kudos seldom offered to more ‘practical’ forms of learning/knowledge which continue to be looked down on.
It’s nonsense imo but, as long as government remains so dominated by an ‘old school tie’ Oxbridge educated elite, things will never change.

[Ram59]

Spot on, mista. In fact I’d go so far as to say a lot more than just a ‘generation’.
There is a real problem in this country - and elsewhere - with the ‘status’ given to different forms of knowledge.
For far too long, imo, ‘academic’ knowledge has received a level of kudos seldom offered to more ‘practical’ forms of learning/knowledge which continue to be looked down on.
It’s nonsense imo but, as long as government remains so dominated by an ‘old school tie’ Oxbridge educated elite, things will never change.

I agree with your statement regarding about where too much kudos is given to academic achievement but disagree, not for the first time, where the blame lies.

The biggest misdirection we have had in recent times, was the Labour infatuation that every pupil should go to university. University became the only achievement worthwhile. Polytechnics turned into universities and children wanting to get a trade all but disappeared. Children were taught that they could do anything they wanted and were reluctant to start at the bottom, when starting work.

Consequently, we have a workforce now, that believes many jobs are below them, resulting in the need for the numbers of immigrants, who are willing to do these jobs.

I would think that the 'old school tie' would favour the old idea of university education for the rich or the brilliant and the others prepared to work in more mundane jobs.

Labour's policy was flawed, the aim to have over 50% of students to go to university, when way under 50% of jobs require a University education. This can only result in disappointment for many with worthless degrees and no suitable job to go to. These students have their aspirations built up, only to be cruelly let down when they realise that they have been so ill prepared for work life.

[mistaram]

Spot on, mista. In fact I’d go so far as to say a lot more than just a ‘generation’.
There is a real problem in this country - and elsewhere - with the ‘status’ given to different forms of knowledge.
For far too long, imo, ‘academic’ knowledge has received a level of kudos seldom offered to more ‘practical’ forms of learning/knowledge which continue to be looked down on.
It’s nonsense imo but, as long as government remains so dominated by an ‘old school tie’ Oxbridge educated elite, things will never change.

Spot on RA schools are partly to blame as well Its usually the less academic who are encouraged to take vocational courses . I can only really speak about the engineering side of things . But things are vastly different today compared to even the 70s &80s most jobs are computerised , I went to college for five years ,bloody hard work

[Trickytreesreds]

Metal work/wood work has been stripped from schooling for decades now.
It is the back bone of foundation for crafts persons. I started with my engineering studies, with skills of lathes, drills, metal treatment, designs all put into use to make things like steam engines from steel/brass/copper. This was foundation for apprenticeship and the further education that followed.
I have recruited many a school leaver who doesn't even know which direction a drill should rotate to cut, never mind sharpen one.
It's where the country fails badly and part of the problem for the long term future. No wonder we have all these East european recruits for such roles.
It's not the kids fault, they have been let down badly in education. These people were never going to go to university for a decent, or meaningless degree.
So they have been thrown on the tip before they have even started.
Time to wipe the slate clean.

[MadAmster]

.... and over here, and probably in the UK as well, something like 25% of students graduating find that the job they had started training for 4 years earlier no longer exists due to technological advances.

While still teaching, I was pushing for change. Some things are pretty universal in their use. Your own language is important to get on "at home". In NL we teach kids Dutch and English right through secondary school. We also give German and Spanish in the first 3 years. As a small nation relying on foreign trade it is imperative that we converse in different languages. It also opens those countries up as possible places to move to and work. Maths is important but the basics is sufficient for most people's needs. The sciences are important too. For those who go to a more "academic" school, they get a broad spectrum of skills and knowledge. These "academic" schools have 4 levels. Gymnasium (7 years), VWO (6 years), HAVO (5 years) and VMBO (4 years). VMBO students get work experience in the 3rd and 4th years. Some go straight to work after that. The others go on to MBO courses of 2, 3 or 4 years. These are work related courses and half of each year consists of work experience. The level is about that of the old HNC/HND courses. HAVO qualifies you for the majority of "Uni" courses. VWO and Gymnasium are necessary to go on to "proper" studies such as Law or Medicine... The sorts of study you went to Uni for 50 odd years ago rather than the "lighter" subjects studied at those institutions that were poly's until recently.

We need to rejig the curriculum to enable schools/Unis to prepare kids for the real world.

My part in it was to add stuff into my curriculum for them that nobody else did. Using music to teach grammar. Giving background to the language, customs and history. They all thought GB/UK/England were one and the same thing. There are those in the UK who might agree with that. I'd teach them how the flag morphed from the St G Cross the the Union Flag and why the Welsh flag isn't part of it. Even did things like regional accents. Reason for that was to show them that learning English at school and picking up American from the TV wouldn't prepare them for the verbal onslaught they wouldn't understand from, for instance, a Geordie or a Scouser..... and yes, I did throw in some Derbyshire for good measure. Sin tin intit? Nah, tint in tin. or enay sane im wayer........ Some of them will even remember why Albert Village is better known as Borrernok. And all the while ensuring they also learnt the things needed in the standard curriculum sufficiently well to ace any exams set. In Computer Science it was building websites and creating databases after the basic Office stuff. Powerpoint? Not just how to make a presentation and what NOT to do, but also HOW to give the presentation verbally. Some were reticent at first in "public speaking" but I managed to persuade them all to give it a go and, they all did in the end. Body language, voice intonation, use of your eyes.... all about communication. I also added in how to prepare themselves for giving the same presentation in different ways aimed at the specific group to whom they would be speaking. Most thought it would be just the same regardless of the target audience. I'd explain that, to a point, they were right. Each group would have the same unspoken question they wanted answering, namely, What's in it for me? Directors and Senior Management have totally different expectations to Middle Management who want different info to Junior Manager or Supervisors and the "shop floor" need yet another approach. They all got the idea quickly.

I'll end this post with kudos for TTR. Post #6400 is spot on and I agree with you.

[ramAnag]

I agree with your statement regarding about where too much kudos is given to academic achievement but disagree, not for the first time, where the blame lies.

The biggest misdirection we have had in recent times, was the Labour infatuation that every pupil should go to university. University became the only achievement worthwhile. Polytechnics turned into universities and children wanting to get a trade all but disappeared. Children were taught that they could do anything they wanted and were reluctant to start at the bottom, when starting work.

Consequently, we have a workforce now, that believes many jobs are below them, resulting in the need for the numbers of immigrants, who are willing to do these jobs.

I would think that the 'old school tie' would favour the old idea of university education for the rich or the brilliant and the others prepared to work in more mundane jobs.

Labour's policy was flawed, the aim to have over 50% of students to go to university, when way under 50% of jobs require a University education. This can only result in disappointment for many with worthless degrees and no suitable job to go to. These students have their aspirations built up, only to be cruelly let down when they realise that they have been so ill prepared for work life.

Wasn’t it Thatcher rather than Labour who was really responsible for all that, Ram? I was heavily involved in the early meetings regarding the merger of BLCE with Derby Tech into what is now Derby University. Those meetings began in the mid ‘70’s but really took off under Thatcher. Derby’s aim of Polytechnic status was originally declined and the merged college became ‘Derby Lonsdale College’ before suddenly being granted University status in, I think, 1992...five years before Blair came to power.
Suddenly in the late ‘80’s - early ‘90’s everywhere seemed to have a University as much, if I remember correctly, as a means of manipulating youth unemployment figures as for any other reason.

My point is that those with practical skills are often looked down on. For me that is wrong as good plumbers, joiners, builders, engineers etc are often real craftsmen who are amongst the cleverest and most valuable members of society. They might not be so good at ‘book learning’ but, imo, attendance on practical courses that produce expertise in the types of trades/crafts mentioned above is every bit as worthwhile as the academic courses which produce the so called professional classes...politicians, solicitors and accountants (no offence GP), and yet we all know where the ‘status’ lies.

P.S. Tbf, MA...the DT curriculum does still include metalwork and woodwork although there is possibly a greater emphasis on electronics, computer studies and food tech. than was once the case. The problem, I think, is a shortage of appropriate staff. Wonder why? Maybe it’s a lot easier and more lucrative to earn a living using such skills than teaching them these days.

[MadAmster]

Here's an example rA. We have a further school type in NL called the "green school". They started in the agricultural areas teaching the less/non academic kids the skills they'd need to be sucessful at flower/fruit/veg growing. They expanded to include all the manual areas. It's a 4 year course. First 2 is 80% practical within school doing everything you can think of from carpentry, welding, bricklaying, cooking, sewing, making clothes, music and a host of other things. 3rd and 4th year was practical work.

The brother in Law's girlfriend's son went to a green school. Excelled at cooking and did his 2 work experience stints in years 3 and 4 at 2 different Michelin star restaurants. End of year 4 he got an offer from the 2nd restaurant but he'd already accepted a job at a M star place in Switzerland. March this year it shut due to CV and he was out of a job and came back to the Netherlands. Pretty soon the owner of restaurant #2 fund out he was back. They had just bought out place that had built a good rep on spare ribs and chips and on roast chicken and chips. They shut it and were going for a new concept. They asked Rick to set up the new menus, upgrade the kitchen and then run the kitchen including kitchen staff hire, procurement... the lot. he's 23. It opened 8 weeks ago and is doing a roaring trade in Amsterdam Zuid, an up market area of the city. We ate there 2 weeks ago. Bloody marvellous, basically. He's done amazingly well for someone who isn't academically blessed.

There are more like him. Discover what they CAN do and train them to do it properly. They are more than capable of taking it from there.

Give the kids what they REALLY NEED not what some dumbass think tank thinks they do

[swaledale]

I agree with your statement regarding about where too much kudos is given to academic achievement but disagree, not for the first time, where the blame lies.

The biggest misdirection we have had in recent times, was the Labour infatuation that every pupil should go to university. University became the only achievement worthwhile. Polytechnics turned into universities and children wanting to get a trade all but disappeared. Children were taught that they could do anything they wanted and were reluctant to start at the bottom, when starting work.

Consequently, we have a workforce now, that believes many jobs are below them, resulting in the need for the numbers of immigrants, who are willing to do these jobs.

I would think that the 'old school tie' would favour the old idea of university education for the rich or the brilliant and the others prepared to work in more mundane jobs.

Labour's policy was flawed, the aim to have over 50% of students to go to university, when way under 50% of jobs require a University education. This can only result in disappointment for many with worthless degrees and no suitable job to go to. These students have their aspirations built up, only to be cruelly let down when they realise that they have been so ill prepared for work life.

The only thing I disagree with in your statement is the use of immigrants to fill jobs that Uk citizens feel are below them, yes jobs in low skilled low paid industries like vegetable picking, food packing cleaning care sector and hospitality are shunned by many here, but in the main thats due to most being able to get better opportunities elsewhere. But there are also many jobs which are well paid and skilled, for which the labour force isn't there, recruting the right employees across sectors is an issue.

There are number of factors at work, but the biggest is demographic, we have had a declining birthrate for decades, bar the odd blip and there simply aren't the young people entering the labour market. That gap has been filled by immigration, its what has kept this economy going.

There is the technological development which has seen jobs replaced by machines often low skilled low paid jobs but increasingly this trend is going up the skill ladder. But it also changes the nature of jobs that could be undertaken by someone without a degree, nursing is one example which has become much more complex and now requires a degree.

Then there is education, as people gain more education, they will naturally not be looking to earn a living slaving away on a low wage, I mean would you?

[ramAnag]

Good example and I’m not disagreeing with you at all, MA. I’d just like to see an end to the association of status with differing forms of knowledge.
Generally speaking, estate agents, solicitors and accountants etc have to be ‘better’ qualified and have higher social status than plumbers, heating engineers, chefs and carpenters but which are, ultimately, more useful?